Editor's Take: Markets to consolidate after 4% rally? Anil Singhvi flags key risks of Nifty, Sensex

Nifty, Sensex Today: The Indian stock market is set to open lower on Thursday. Early signals remain weak. Gift Nifty indicates a gap-down start. This comes after global cues turned mixed.

The initial optimism over the US-Iran ceasefire is fading. Reports of possible breaches have raised fresh concerns. Asian markets are already reflecting this caution.

Japan’s Nikkei and Topix declined. South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq also traded lower. This shows risk appetite is cooling after a sharp rally.

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A strong rally behind, but sustainability in question

On Wednesday, markets saw a powerful move. The Sensex jumped 3.95 per cent. The Nifty 50 rose 3.78 per cent.

This rally was driven by two factors. One was easing geopolitical tension. The second was a supportive RBI policy.

But Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi believes the real test starts now.

“Big rallies need follow-through. Without strong global support and FII buying, sustainability becomes difficult,” is the underlying view.

Ceasefire holds, but tensions remain

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is fragile. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz are being closely watched.

Ship movement remains slow. The US has dismissed rumours of a shutdown. But uncertainty remains.

Tensions have also shifted towards Lebanon. Iran has raised objections over continued attacks. Israel has clarified that Hezbollah is not part of the ceasefire.

This suggests that the broader conflict is not fully resolved. Markets may remain sensitive to headlines.

Oil becomes the key trigger

Crude oil is now the most critical factor.

If oil falls below $90 per barrel, markets could extend gains. But if prices sustain above $100, upside may get capped.

This makes energy prices the biggest near-term indicator for direction.

FIIs hold the key to trend

Foreign institutional investors remain cautious.

Even during Wednesday’s rally, FIIs were sellers in the cash market. There was some short covering in futures.

This creates a clear risk. If FII selling continues, markets may struggle to hold higher levels.

However, if short covering turns into fresh buying, Nifty could move towards 24,500–24,800 levels.

What is supporting the market?

There are still strong positives in the system.

Global markets have shown resilience. Domestic institutional buying remains strong. The rupee has recovered for four straight sessions.

Volatility has cooled sharply. India VIX has dropped nearly 20 per cent.

The RBI policy has also added confidence. Wednesday’s rally was broad-based and strong in quality.

What is capping the upside?

At the same time, risks are visible.

Crude oil has seen a mild recovery. Iran’s tone remains aggressive.

FIIs are still not fully convinced. Even positive triggers are not leading to strong foreign buying.

Global cues have turned slightly weak again. There are also technical gaps left on charts, which markets may attempt to fill.

Levels to watch in a gap-down opening

According to Anil Singhvi, today’s session becomes tactical.

Investors should focus on key support zones. Buying on dips may work, but only near strong levels.

Upside will depend on stability in oil and FII behaviour.

For now, the market is not weak. But it is also not ready for a straight rally. It is entering a phase of consolidation after a sharp spike.