Editor's Take: How to make money in a slow market? Anil Singhvi explains roadmap for investors

Indian equity markets are currently witnessing a phase of caution despite improving global sentiment and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.

According to market expert Anil Singhvi, both foreign and domestic institutional investors are waiting for greater clarity before taking aggressive positions, making stock selection more important than index trading.

Singhvi believes investors can still make money in the current market, but the strategy needs to change. Instead of chasing index moves, investors should focus on specific sectors and stocks that are likely to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and lower crude oil prices.

Why are FIIs and DIIs in wait-and-watch mode?

According to Singhvi, recent institutional data clearly shows a cautious approach from both foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs).

While FII long positions in index futures have increased for seven consecutive sessions and are close to monthly highs, cash market activity remains subdued. FIIs sold shares worth around Rs 750 crore in the previous session, a relatively small amount that does not signal aggressive bearishness. The bigger surprise came from DIIs.

"Domestic funds recorded one of their smallest purchases ever. This shows that both FIIs and DIIs are waiting for more clarity before taking large positions," Singhvi said.

He believes investors are closely tracking developments expected around June 19 and are unwilling to make major commitments until there is greater visibility.

What is stopping the market from rallying?

Despite several positive developments, markets have failed to witness the kind of sharp rally many investors expected. According to Singhvi, a large part of the optimism related to easing geopolitical tensions has already been priced into stock prices.

"The market has already recovered sharply on expectations that the conflict situation is improving. The next trigger will be the nature of the deal and the direction of crude oil prices after that," he said.

Another reason for the lack of momentum is the massive fundraising activity taking place across markets. From June 1 to June 16, several block deals, QIPs, OFS issues and IPOs together absorbed nearly Rs 35,000-36,000 crore from investors.

"If this money had come into the secondary market, it could have provided stronger support to stock prices," Singhvi said.

What is positive for markets right now?

While market participation remains cautious, Singhvi sees several positives. The biggest positive factor is the expectation that the June 19 international deal will bring further stability to global markets.

He also believes crude oil prices below USD 80 per barrel are favourable for India. "Crude oil below USD 80 is positive for India. The rupee is recovering and volatility indicators are also showing encouraging signs," Singhvi said.

A stronger rupee, stable crude prices and declining volatility typically improve investor confidence and support corporate profitability.

How should investors approach the market till June 19?

Singhvi advises investors to avoid aggressive index trading for now. "Till June 19, the bias remains positive. Investors should look to buy near support levels and focus more on sectors and stocks rather than index trading," he said.

According to him, benchmark indices are trapped in a range and therefore offer limited opportunities for directional traders. Instead, investors should concentrate on individual stocks showing strong earnings visibility and favourable sector trends.

Which sectors can help investors make money?

One of Singhvi's preferred themes remains sectors that benefit from lower crude oil prices. He expects automobile companies, banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and oil marketing companies (OMCs) to remain strong.

"Crude-linked themes are still positive. Auto, banks, NBFCs and OMCs should continue to perform well," Singhvi said. Lower fuel costs help reduce inflationary pressure and improve demand conditions, benefiting several consumption-oriented sectors.

Apart from these sectors, Singhvi also expects opportunities in stocks that witnessed heavy selling during the period of geopolitical uncertainty. "Shares that were hit harder during the conflict phase could see buying interest and short-covering once uncertainty eases further," he said.

What are the key levels to watch on Nifty?

According to Singhvi, Nifty continues to face a major resistance zone between 24,000 and 24,250. The index has repeatedly struggled near these levels and still needs to fill an important gap created between May 8 and May 11.

"The 24,000-24,250 range remains an important resistance zone for Nifty. A close above 24,300 can open the door for a fresh and stronger uptrend," Singhvi said.

On the downside, he sees strong support between 23,650 and 23,825. As long as the index remains within this range, investors should avoid expecting a major breakout and instead focus on stock-specific opportunities.

Why is 57,800 so important for Bank Nifty?

Singhvi described 57,800 as the most important level for the banking index. Bank Nifty recently crossed key moving averages and touched an intraday high of 57,804, helping fill an important historical gap.

However, the index has not yet delivered a decisive closing above this level. "Bank Nifty has completed the intraday gap filling, but the closing gap is still pending. A close above 57,800 is essential for a fresh and meaningful breakout," Singhvi said.

Until then, he expects resistance and profit booking in the 57,375-57,775 range. A successful breakout above 57,800 could become an important trigger for broader market participation.

Is VIX signalling a bigger rally ahead?

One of the strongest positive signals, according to Singhvi, is coming from India VIX, the market's fear gauge. The volatility index has fallen for four consecutive sessions and recently touched a three-month low.

More importantly, VIX has remained below its 100-day moving average for 14 straight sessions and has now closed below its 200-day moving average after nearly three months.

"A VIX close below its 200-day moving average is generally considered a positive signal for equities and supports the possibility of further market strength," Singhvi said.

Lower volatility typically indicates improving investor confidence and often provides a supportive environment for equities.

What is Singhvi's final message to investors?

Singhvi believes the current market environment is not negative but simply cautious. Institutional investors are waiting for clarity, while technical resistance levels are preventing an immediate breakout.

"There is no major negative factor. The market is simply in a wait-and-watch phase. Both foreign and domestic investors are taking a cautious approach until there is more clarity," he said.

His message to investors is clear: avoid getting frustrated by the lack of index movement, focus on sectors benefiting from lower crude oil prices, look for opportunities in beaten-down stocks, and wait for decisive breakouts in Nifty and Bank Nifty. According to Singhvi, once those breakouts occur, mid-cap and small-cap stocks could witness a much stronger rally than the benchmark indices.