Editor's Take: Crude spike amid war tensions; Anil Singhvi explains what it means for markets

Editor's Take: Oil prices surged nearly 8 per cent on Thursday as traders remained unconvinced that emergency stock releases would be enough to offset the severe supply shock caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, rose 7.5 per cent to $93.8 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude gained 7.74 per cent to $99.1 per barrel.

The sharp move came despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) announcing the largest coordinated release of emergency crude reserves in its history.

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According to Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor of Zee Business, the conflict is entering a more dangerous phase and could increasingly turn into an economic war impacting energy markets, financial institutions and global trade.

Iran attacks tankers in Hormuz region

Singhvi said Iran has reportedly attacked three oil tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. A Thailand-bound ship heading to India was also targeted in the region.

According to Singhvi, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important global oil shipping routes, and any disruption there can quickly impact global crude supply and trigger sharp price volatility.

Iran signals tougher stance

Singhvi said Iran’s president has issued strong statements during the conflict, demanding compensation for damages caused during the war and international guarantees to prevent future conflicts.

Singhvi added that Iran has warned it may target US and Israeli banking interests in Gulf countries if attacks continue. Following these warnings, several banks in Doha, Qatar and Dubai reportedly shut offices temporarily due to security concerns.

War rhetoric intensifies

Singhvi said Israel’s defence minister has stated the war will continue until Israel achieves victory. Meanwhile, former US president Donald Trump claimed he could end the conflict whenever he wants and said there is “nothing left to destroy in Iran”.

According to Singhvi, such statements indicate that geopolitical tensions may remain elevated for longer than expected.

Oil rises despite record reserve release

Singhvi noted that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the release of 40 crore barrels of oil from global strategic reserves — the largest release ever aimed at stabilising markets.

However, Singhvi said crude prices have still jumped nearly 12 per cent and are hovering close to $98 a barrel. Iran has warned that oil could surge to $200 per barrel if attacks continue or if oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

Economic war risk rising

Singhvi said the conflict has now reached its 13th day and Iran appears ready for a prolonged confrontation. According to him, Tehran is increasingly using crude oil supply threats as leverage to pressure the global economy.

Singhvi added that threats to target US-linked banks in Gulf nations and disrupt oil supply suggest Iran may be shifting towards an economic war strategy.

Market impact may widen

Singhvi warned that rising crude prices could create fresh pressure on global markets. According to him, oil marketing companies may face rising cost pressures, while aviation and hospitality stocks could remain under stress.

He also said higher oil prices could weigh on economic growth and may slow GDP expansion in the current quarter.

Trump explores new tariff route

Singhvi also highlighted that the US administration is considering trade investigations under Section 301 against 16 countries including India.

According to Singhvi, the investigation will begin on 17 March and may conclude by 15 April. He said the move is being seen as an indirect way for the US to impose tariffs after earlier tariff actions faced legal hurdles.