Editor's Take: Buy or sell in a gap-down market? Anil Singhvi explains why 24,600 is crucial for Nifty

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open sharply lower on Monday, tracking weak global cues and a surge in crude oil prices after the US and Iran rejected each other’s peace proposals, raising concerns over prolonged geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

GIFT Nifty

Trends on Gift Nifty also signalled a weak start for domestic equities. Gift Nifty was trading near the 24,025 mark, at a discount of nearly 149 points to Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down opening for the benchmark indices.

Previous session recap

On Friday, Indian equities extended losses for the second straight session amid caution over global developments and rising volatility. The Sensex declined 516.33 points, or 0.66 per cent, to close at 77,328.19, while the Nifty 50 fell 150.50 points, or 0.62 per cent, to settle at 24,176.15.

Why markets are under pressure

Investor sentiment turned cautious after tensions between the US and Iran intensified over the weekend. Both nations reportedly rejected each other’s proposals linked to a possible peace framework, while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and oil supply concerns pushed crude prices higher.

According to Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi, markets had already started showing signs of discomfort on Friday as optimism around a possible US-Iran deal faded.
Singhvi said while discussions between the two countries have continued for several days, there has been little meaningful progress. Last week, global markets rallied and crude prices cooled on hopes of a breakthrough, but recent developments have again shifted sentiment toward the negative side.

Singhvi added that investors will now closely track US President Donald Trump’s China visit and any major developments related to the Iran conflict or tariff-related tensions.

PM Modi’s appeal to save foreign exchange

Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to help conserve foreign exchange reserves amid rising global uncertainty and elevated crude oil prices.
The Prime Minister appealed to people to reduce diesel and petrol consumption, avoid unnecessary gold purchases for a year, prefer work-from-home where possible, reduce foreign travel, use public transport, adopt indigenous products, and reduce the use of imported edible oils and fertilisers.

Singhvi said the Prime Minister’s appeal reflects the seriousness of the situation and indicates that the government may take larger steps if pressure on foreign exchange reserves increases further.

He added that the government could gradually allow fuel prices to rise and may even consider restrictions aimed at reducing dollar outflows if global conditions worsen.

Nifty faces strong hurdle near 24,600

According to Singhvi, the Nifty 50 continues to face a major resistance zone between 24,350 and 24,600.

He noted that the benchmark index has closed within a narrow 1.5 per cent range around the 24,000 mark for five consecutive weeks. Singhvi highlighted that the Nifty’s 100-week moving average currently stands near 24,535, making it an important resistance level.

The index has repeatedly failed to sustain above the 24,350–24,600 zone over the past four weeks, suggesting strong selling pressure at higher levels. Singhvi said a decisive close above 24,600 would be required for a fresh leg of rally in the market.

Bank Nifty also at crucial levels

Singhvi said Bank Nifty is also trading between its key weekly moving averages, indicating indecision in the banking space.

The 50-week moving average for Bank Nifty stands near 56,950, while the 100-week moving average is around 54,150.

He said weakness could intensify if Bank Nifty closes below the 54,000 level on a weekly basis. On the upside, the 56,250–57,350 zone remains a key resistance area where profit booking could emerge.

According to Singhvi, a sustained move above 57,500 may be needed for stronger upside momentum.

India VIX signals rising caution

The India VIX, often referred to as the market’s fear gauge, rose 1.3 per cent on Friday to close at 16.84, snapping a four-day losing streak.

The volatility index rebounded after touching a two-month low of 15.17 and also bounced from its 100-day moving average level near 15.62.

Singhvi said traders should closely monitor the India VIX over the next few sessions, warning that a sharp rise in volatility could increase pressure on equities and trigger further weakness in the market.