Editor's Take: Anil Singhvi decodes crude oil volatility, FIIs and Nifty breakout; where should investors put money?

Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open on a subdued note on Thursday amid mixed global cues as investors remain cautious over ongoing US-Iran tensions and sharp swings in crude oil prices.

Asian markets traded mixed in early deals, while Wall Street ended higher overnight. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs, supported by optimism around easing geopolitical tensions and strength in technology stocks.

On Wednesday, Indian equities ended sharply higher, with both benchmark indices rising more than 1 per cent in late trade. Buying momentum picked up after reports suggested the US and Iran may be moving closer towards a possible agreement to de-escalate the conflict.

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Trump signals possible Iran deal

According to market expert Anil Singhvi, investors are closely tracking developments around the US-Iran situation, crude oil movement, and foreign institutional investor (FII) activity.

US President Donald Trump reportedly said talks with Iran were progressing well and indicated that a deal could be possible before his proposed China visit next week.

Trump said Iran wants negotiations and a settlement with the US. He also indicated that if Iran agrees to conditions set by the US, military operations could come to an end and the Strait of Hormuz may reopen fully for global trade.

At the same time, he warned of stronger military action if a peace agreement is not reached.

Iran, meanwhile, said it is reviewing the US proposal and will respond after completing its assessment.

Crude oil remains highly volatile

Crude oil prices continue to remain highly volatile, keeping investors cautious.

According to Singhvi, crude has repeatedly faced selling pressure above the USD 112–115 zone, while strong support has emerged around USD 90–95 levels.

After Indian markets closed on Wednesday, crude oil prices reportedly slipped to around USD 96 before recovering back near USD 102. The recovery means crude is currently trading close to levels seen during Wednesday’s market close.

Analysts believe oil price movement will remain a key trigger for global and domestic equities in the near term.

Key positives for the market

Market participants are seeing several supportive factors for equities:

• Rising hopes of a possible US-Iran agreement
• Softer stance from both countries
• Signs of weakness in crude oil prices
• Strong buying support from domestic institutional investors (DIIs)
• Record rally in US markets
• Positive undertone in Asian equities
• Technical breakout attempt by Nifty on Wednesday
• Strong momentum in midcap and smallcap stocks

Factors keeping investors cautious

Despite Wednesday’s rally, some concerns continue to weigh on sentiment:

• FIIs remained net sellers even in a strong market session
• Crude oil prices remain volatile
• No formal confirmation yet of a final US-Iran agreemen