Editor’s Take: Nifty, Sensex likely to open in red; buy or sell on gap-down start? Anil Singhvi outlines levels

Nifty, Sensex Today: Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday, tracking weak signals from GIFT Nifty and rising crude oil prices, despite positive global cues.

GIFT Nifty

Trends on GIFT Nifty indicate a negative start. At 7:24 AM, GIFT Nifty was trading near the 24,207 level, a discount of around 101 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.

Market recap

On Wednesday, domestic equities ended sharply lower, snapping a three-session winning streak.

The Sensex declined 756.84 points, or 0.95 per cent, to close at 78,516.49. The Nifty 50 fell 198.50 points, or 0.81 per cent, to settle at 24,378.10, slipping below the 24,400 mark.

Asian markets

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Thursday, following strong cues from the US.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.42 per cent after hitting an intraday record high of 60,013.98. South Korea’s Kospi touched a fresh lifetime high of 6,557.76, rising 1.54 per cent. The Kosdaq was marginally down 0.05 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.65 per cent.

Wall Street

US stock markets ended higher on Wednesday, with benchmark indices scaling record highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 340.65 points, or 0.69 per cent, to 49,490.03. The S&P 500 rose 73.89 points, or 1.05 per cent, to 7,137.90. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 397.60 points, or 1.64 per cent, to 24,657.57.

The rally was driven by optimism over extension of the US-Iran ceasefire and strong corporate earnings.

RBI MPC minutes

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed that policymakers maintained status quo on interest rates, citing global uncertainties.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged risks from the West Asia conflict, including pressure on exports, commodity supply, energy prices, remittances, and global demand.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices moved higher amid geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude rose 0.33 per cent to $102.25 per barrel, while US WTI crude jumped 2.81 per cent to $92.13 per barrel. Elevated oil prices remain a key concern for inflation and market stability.

Editor's Take: Anil Singhvi outlines strategy

Key negatives for the market

• Crude oil back above $100 level
• Continued FII selling pressure
• DIIs slowing down purchases
• Rising Iran-US tensions
• No clarity on Strait of Hormuz reopening
• Weak rupee trend
• India VIX above 50-day moving average
• Weakness in Dow futures

Key positives

• Indications of fresh talks by US leadership
• Nasdaq and S&P 500 at record highs
• Japan and Korea markets at lifetime highs
• Midcap and smallcap segments remain stable
• Possibility of short covering on weekly expiry

For new positions: Nifty

Sell Nifty

• Stop loss: 24,525
• Targets: 24,250, 24,200, 24,100, 24,075, 24,025, 23,900

Aggressive traders: Buy Nifty in 24,000–24,150 range

• Stop loss: 23,850
• Targets: 24,200, 24,240, 24,275, 24,350, 24,375, 24,475

For new positions: Bank Nifty

Sell Bank Nifty

• Stop loss: 57,500
• Targets: 56,850, 56,700, 56,600, 56,500, 56,350, 56,100

Low-risk traders: Buy only above 57,500

Strict stop loss: 57,300

Aggressive traders: Buy Bank Nifty in 56,500–56,800 range

• Stop loss: 56,300
• Targets: 57,000, 57,125, 57,250, 57,375, 57,425, 57,600