Editor’s Take: Hormuz crisis, crude surge and FII selling—Anil Singhvi explains why Sensex, Nifty investors are nervous

Global markets are facing fresh uncertainty after the Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend, with attacks targeting oil export and refinery infrastructure. According to Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor of Zee Business, the risk of the war expanding into critical oil facilities has increased, raising concerns for energy markets and global equities.

Attacks on oil infrastructure raise concerns

Singhvi said the United States has reportedly carried out strikes on Iran’s oil export centres. One of the key targets was the Kharg terminal, which handles nearly 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports.

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In response, Singhvi said Iran has launched attacks near refinery ports across several Gulf nations. Former US president Donald Trump also issued a warning to Iran, saying if refineries were spared, Tehran should not escalate further.

Singhvi added that Trump warned of missile strikes if Iran continued its actions.

Strait of Hormuz crisis continues

Singhvi said tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. However, Iran has indicated that it may allow Indian ships to pass through the route.

According to Singhvi, two Indian vessels carrying LPG have been allowed safe passage. Iran has also said the Strait will remain closed only for hostile countries.

Meanwhile, Singhvi said Trump has urged several nations including the United Kingdom, France, Japan, South Korea and China to send warships to the region to secure the shipping route. However, Singhvi noted that none of these countries has yet agreed to deploy naval vessels.

Trump criticises media coverage

Singhvi said Trump also criticised Iranian and American media outlets for spreading what he called false reports about the conflict.

According to Singhvi, Trump accused Iranian media of circulating misleading claims that US refuelling aircraft were shot down. Singhvi added that Trump alleged Iran was using media manipulation and artificial intelligence-generated visuals to show fake attacks by Iranian boats.

Trump also criticised sections of the US media, including the The Wall Street Journal, for publishing what he described as incorrect reports.

Multiple risks for markets

Singhvi outlined several factors that could remain negative for markets in the near term.

He said the risk of the war prolonging remains high, especially after attacks on oil infrastructure over the weekend. Singhvi also pointed to continuing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz reopening and attempts by the US to involve other countries in the conflict.

According to Singhvi, global cues have also weakened. US markets have fallen for four straight sessions, while foreign institutional investors have continued selling in India for the third day with net outflows exceeding Rs 10,000 crore.

Singhvi added that crude oil has again surged to around $106 per barrel, while the Indian rupee hit a fresh lifetime low of 92.48 against the dollar on Friday. India VIX remains elevated and the dollar index is hovering near the 100 level, close to a 10-month high.

Why GIFT Nifty is still higher

Despite several negative triggers, Singhvi noted that GIFT Nifty was trading higher.

According to him, markets may be interpreting Trump’s request for international naval support in the Strait of Hormuz as a sign of limited US appetite to prolong the conflict.

Singhvi added that Iran’s statement that the Strait would remain open for friendly nations also eased some concerns. Crude oil prices have cooled slightly from $106 to around $103, while markets may also be seeing a technical bounce after Friday’s sharp fall pushed indices into oversold territory.