Editor’s Take: Anil Singhvi warns of deeper correction; key levels in focus

Editor’s Take: Indian equities are headed for a weak start on Monday, tracking a sharp rise in global crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Early signals from GIFT Nifty indicate a gap-down opening for benchmark indices.

Gift Nifty signals a weak opening

GIFT Nifty was hovering around 23,749.50 at roughly 8:15 AM, reflecting a 1.13 percent drop, or 270.50 points. This hints at a potential opening for the Nifty 50 close to the 23,750 level. The downward trend follows a surge in oil prices, fueled by concerns over possible supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor.

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Global indicators are also pointing south

Asian markets were in the red, and US stock futures mirrored this decline. The mood soured after the US initiated a blockade of Iranian maritime traffic, heightening tensions in the West Asia region.

The development has raised concerns over a possible energy crisis, with crude prices hovering near $102 per barrel and fears of a move towards $110.

Previous session: strong rally

On Friday, markets had ended with strong gains. The BSE Sensex surged 918.60 points, or 1.20 per cent, to close at 77,550.25. The Nifty 50 rose 275.50 points, or 1.16 per cent, to settle at 24,050.60. The rally had marked a break from weeks of weakness.

Editor’s take: key questions for the market

Market expert Anil Singhvi flagged several key risks for the day:

• How deep can markets fall if talks fail?
• Should investors buy the dip or sell on gap-down opening?
• Will the crude surge derail the rally?
• How strong is the brake on recent market momentum?
• Will FIIs resume selling after a brief buying phase?
• Which sectors may outperform in a falling market?
• Key downside levels to watch
• Impact of Delhi EV policy

Why markets are under pressure

The latest fall in sentiment is driven by multiple triggers:

• US-Iran talks have failed to yield a breakthrough
• No clear signal on continuation of negotiations
• Threat of full closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• Sharp spike in crude oil prices
• Rising geopolitical aggression, including China-US tensions
• Increasing risk of a broader conflict

Impact across markets

If tensions persist, the impact could be widespread:

• Fresh correction in global equities
• Crude oil may move towards $110
• FII selling could intensify
• Rupee may weaken further
• Rate-sensitive sectors may see sharper declines

Key levels to watch

• Nifty may correct towards the gap zone of 23,465
• Strong support seen at 23,000–23,150 levels
• Bank Nifty support placed at 53,700–54,150
• A deeper fall could drag Bank Nifty towards 52,600–52,775
• Market internals remain strong

Despite near-term risks, broader data remains supportive:

• Nifty gained 5.9 per cent last week, among top global performers
• Bank Nifty and Nifty broke a 5–6 week losing streak
• Midcap and smallcap indices showed improving momentum
• Rate-sensitive sectors led gains: Realty up 13 per cent, Auto 10.6 per cent, Banks 8.5 per cent
• India VIX cooled 7.7 per cent to 18.85
• FII activity shows mixed trend

Foreign institutional investors turned marginal buyers on Friday after a long gap:

• Rs 672 crore buying in cash segment after 27 sessions
• Total buying of Rs 4,513 crore across segments
• Domestic funds extended buying streak for the 30th session

Global macro snapshot

• Rupee ended weaker at 92.73 per dollar
• Dollar index remained steady near 99
• Crude oil surged near $102 per barrel