Editor’s Take | Anil Singhvi flags breakdown risk; Nifty near key support as crude surge, FII selling weigh

Editor’s Take: Indian markets are staring at a weak opening on Monday, with Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi flagging rising geopolitical risks and sharp global weakness as key triggers.

GIFT Nifty futures slipped nearly 140 points in early trade. This signals a gap-down start. Asian markets plunged up to 4.5 per cent amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Global markets under pressure

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US markets closed sharply lower on Friday. Benchmark indices fell up to 1.9 per cent.

Markets are now on track for their worst monthly fall since September 2022. Indices have already declined about 7.7 per cent in March.

Weak global sentiment is likely to weigh heavily on domestic equities.

Crude surge adds to concerns

Crude oil remains the biggest worry. Prices crossed $105 per barrel on Friday after US-Iran talks failed.

The rally continued on Monday. Crude moved above $108 per barrel. It has risen nearly 8 per cent in just two days. Since January, oil prices are up around 78 per cent.

Singhvi said the spike is driven by fears of a prolonged war. Risks around supply disruption and shipping routes are rising.

War escalates; negative developments mount

Geopolitical tensions have intensified sharply over the weekend.

Reports indicate the US is preparing for possible ground action. Around 3,500 US naval personnel are said to be on standby. Iran has attacked a Saudi base.

The conflict has widened further. Houthi forces have opened another front by targeting Israel. There are also fears that key global routes like the Red Sea could face disruption after the Strait of Hormuz concerns.

Israel has also reportedly struck Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and nuclear facilities.

Trump claims add to uncertainty

US President Donald Trump has made fresh claims in an interview. He said there has been a regime change in Iran and talks are ongoing with new leadership.

He also claimed control over Iran’s oil assets and shipments via Hormuz. These statements have added to uncertainty and volatility in global markets.

Editor’s take: conflict may drag longer

Singhvi said the war is stretching longer than expected. Iran has shown stronger resistance.

He warned that global alliances are weakening. Even NATO partners are not fully aligned.

He added that the biggest risk is further escalation. Any aggressive move could worsen the crisis and trigger fresh market panic.

Rupee hits record low; recovery seen likely

The rupee closed at a record low of 94.81 against the US dollar. It fell 83 paise in the last session.

The currency has dropped around 11 per cent in FY26 so far. This is its weakest performance since FY12.

However, Singhvi expects a possible recovery. The Reserve Bank of India has capped banks’ net open dollar positions at $100 million from April 10.

Banks are likely to start cutting positions early. This could lead to dollar selling. The rupee may recover 70 to 100 paise in the near term.

FII selling, volatility keep pressure high

Foreign institutional investors continue to sell heavily. This remains a key overhang for markets.

India VIX has also surged, indicating higher volatility. Friday’s broad-based fall has further weakened sentiment.

What is negative for markets

• Sharp spike in crude oil prices
• Heavy FII selling
• Rupee at record low levels
• Rising volatility indicators
• Weak global cues and war-related fears

What offers some support

• Likely recovery in rupee due to RBI action
• Government’s lower borrowing programme
• Strong domestic institutional buying at lower levels

Key questions for the day

• Will March lows break in today’s session?
• Where is the next major support if levels crack?
• Can crude rally towards $120 per barrel?
• Will FII selling continue to dominate?
• How will monthly expiry positioning play out ahead of the holiday-shortened week?