Crude oil crashes 15% after US‑Iran ceasefire – Which stocks will gain? Anil Singhvi explains

Global crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after the United States signalled a pause in hostilities with Iran, easing concerns over supply disruptions in a key global oil route.

The decline in oil prices, along with progress on diplomatic talks, lifted sentiment across global equity markets.

Crude oil drops sharply below USD 100

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Benchmark Brent crude slipped below the USD 100 per barrel mark, falling USD 14.84 or 13.6 per cent to USD 94.43 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined USD 16.13 or 14.3 per cent to USD 96.82 per barrel. Latest data showed WTI at USD 96.47, down 14.59 per cent, while Brent traded at USD 95.42, lower by 12.68 per cent.

The sharp fall reflects a cooling of geopolitical risk premium that had pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks amid tensions in the Middle East.

Ceasefire announcement eases supply concerns

The decline in crude prices came after Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The ceasefire is subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said the United States would suspend its “bombing and attack” campaign on Iran for two weeks, calling it a “double-sided ceasefire”. He added that the decision followed discussions with Pakistan’s leadership and was linked to ensuring uninterrupted oil movement through the Strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key global energy corridor through which nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption in this route typically leads to a spike in oil prices. The reopening has reduced fears of supply constraints.

Iran proposal boosts hopes of long-term deal

Trump said the United States has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he described as a workable basis for negotiations. He added that most military objectives had already been achieved and both sides were close to reaching a broader agreement.

The development has raised hopes of a possible long-term resolution, although uncertainties remain over the final outcome of the negotiations.

Expert says next two weeks crucial

Market expert Anil Singhvi said the ceasefire sends positive signals but cautioned that it is too early to conclude that the conflict has ended.

“The biggest question is whether this ceasefire is final or temporary. This is not the first ceasefire, so we have to see if it holds this time,” he said.

He said the next two weeks are critical as both sides have agreed to halt attacks. “There will be no war during this period, which gives time for negotiations,” Singhvi said.

He added that the key trigger for market optimism is Iran’s response. “Earlier, markets were ignoring statements from Trump. The real reaction has come now because Iran has responded positively and agreed to talks,” he said.

Singhvi said Iran has formally submitted a proposal for negotiations, marking a shift in its stance. “For the first time, Iran has officially said it has sent a proposal and is ready to talk. This has boosted market confidence,” he added.

Oil fall linked to easing risk premium

On crude oil, Singhvi said the sharp fall is directly linked to easing supply concerns. “Crude has fallen around 13 per cent to near USD 94 mainly because of news that the Strait of Hormuz is being reopened,” he said.

He added that Iran has also indicated it will not carry out retaliatory attacks during the ceasefire period, which has further improved sentiment.

“Both sides stepping back is the biggest positive. Iran agreeing to open Hormuz and halt attacks has led to strong global market momentum,” Singhvi said.

Apart from geopolitical factors, market dynamics also reflected unusual pricing patterns. WTI continued to trade at a premium to Brent, reversing the typical trend. This was attributed to differences in contract timelines, with WTI linked to nearer-term delivery.

Sectoral action expected in equities

Singhvi said equity markets are likely to see sector-specific action following the positive developments. He said infrastructure and port-linked stocks may lead the rally.

“Stocks like L&T and Adani Ports can see strong upside as sentiment improves,” he said. He added that oil marketing companies are expected to benefit from lower crude prices. “HPCL and BPCL may see buying interest as falling crude improves their margins,” Singhvi said.

On aviation, he said InterGlobe Aviation may gain. “IndiGo can see a strong move as lower fuel costs are positive for airlines,” he said. Singhvi said Reliance Industries may also see recovery. “There is a strong possibility of recovery in Reliance as overall sentiment improves,” he noted.

He added that gas-linked companies such as Petronet LNG and GAIL may attract buying interest. On consumption, Singhvi said paint stocks could gain. “Asian Paints can see strong gains as input cost pressure eases,” he said.

He also expects recovery in consumer-facing stocks. “Jubilant Food can see a good bounce back,” he added. However, he cautioned that upstream oil companies may remain under pressure. “ONGC and Oil India are likely to see sharp declines due to the fall in crude prices,” Singhvi said.