Crude Oil at $115+: Will US-Iran-Israel 'energy war' push prices toward $150?

Crude oil prices rose sharply as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Iran and Israel intensified, with energy infrastructure increasingly becoming a target. Market participants said the nature of the conflict has shifted from a purely military confrontation to an energy-linked escalation, raising concerns over global supply disruptions.

Experts noted that oil and gas facilities have come under attack in recent days, changing the direction of the conflict. According to market observers, the focus has moved towards key energy assets in the Middle East, a region that plays a major role in global crude and gas supply chains.

Anil Singhvi said the situation is now evolving into an “energy and economic war”, with oil and gas facilities being directly impacted. He said, “The focus of the war has shifted to oil and gas. This is no longer just a military conflict but an energy war.”

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He added that the escalation has increased uncertainty in global energy markets as key supply hubs face risks.

Attack on major gas field triggers sharp price spike

Market experts said the attack on one of the world’s largest gas fields shared between Iran and Qatar marked a major turning point in the conflict and contributed to the recent surge in crude prices.

Ajay Mathur, former Director General of the International Solar Alliance, said the development has raised concerns over global energy supply. “The attack on the gas field and the subsequent retaliation have brought the conflict into the energy domain. That is why prices have moved higher,” he said.

He added that disruptions in energy infrastructure and shipping routes are already being reflected in global markets. “We are seeing that oil deliveries from the Gulf region are getting affected. That is pushing prices upward,” he said.

Experts said the attack on the South Pars gas field, one of the largest natural gas deposits in the world shared by Iran and Qatar, has added to market fears about supply stability in the region.

Brent crude rallies above $110; volatility increases

Brent crude oil prices surged above the $110 per barrel mark amid heightened geopolitical tensions. In the latest session, Brent crude futures for May 2026 were trading at $114.87, up $7.49 or 6.98 per cent.

During the day, prices moved in a range between $109.21 and $115.07, reflecting strong volatility. The rally has taken crude close to its 52-week high of $119.50, compared with a low of $58.40 in the same period.

Oil prices rose 6.87 per cent in a single day, 14.33 per cent over the past week, and 61.16 per cent over the past month. Over three months, prices have risen by 89.95 per cent. Gains stand at 72.26 per cent over six months and 63.34 per cent over one year.

Market participants said the sharp rise is being driven more by supply concerns linked to geopolitical risks rather than demand-side factors.

Concerns over key shipping routes and global supply disruption

Experts also highlighted risks to major oil and gas shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global crude shipments passes.

They said any disruption to these routes could further tighten global supply and add to price volatility.

Singhvi said the conflict could escalate further and impact critical supply lines. He said, “If the situation escalates further, there could be attempts to control or disrupt key supply routes, which will have a major impact on global oil prices.”

He added that such developments could divide global energy flows and lead to sharper fluctuations in crude oil prices.

Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh and also stopped an attempted drone attack on a gas facility, according to reports.

Iran issued evacuation warnings before it attacked several oil facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as part of its response to earlier strikes on its energy infrastructure in South Pars and Asaluyeh.

US stance, inflation concerns and global economic impact

Market experts said the United States is cautious about allowing energy prices to rise sharply due to the risk of higher inflation and its impact on global growth. Singhvi said, “The US does not want oil and gas prices to remain elevated for long because it can trigger inflation and affect global economies.”

He added that higher crude prices may also impact US consumers, although domestic energy companies could benefit.

Ajay Mathur said policy actions from major economies, including the US, will play a key role in shaping the future direction of energy markets. He said there are efforts to balance geopolitical objectives with market stability.

The surge in crude prices is expected to put pressure on global economies, especially import-dependent countries. Higher oil prices can increase inflation, widen trade deficits, and raise input costs for industries. Experts said sustained high prices could also affect corporate margins and consumer demand across sectors.

Mathur said India’s diversified crude import strategy may provide some cushion against supply shocks. India has increased sourcing from regions such as West Africa and Russia, which may help manage supply risks.

However, he said global price trends will continue to influence domestic energy costs. He added that while previously contracted shipments may provide temporary relief, new purchases will reflect the prevailing elevated international prices.

Experts said the outlook for crude oil remains uncertain and will depend on the pace of escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. If attacks on energy infrastructure continue, prices may remain elevated or move higher. Any easing of tensions could provide relief to global markets.