Ceasefire extended, but no deal yet: What Trump’s move means for markets, oil & Nifty targets?

The United States’ decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran without setting any deadline has brought near-term relief to global markets, although uncertainty persists due to the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald J. Trump said the ceasefire will remain in place until Iran presents a unified proposal, even as US forces continue to enforce the blockade. The move is being seen as an attempt to avoid immediate escalation while maintaining pressure on Iran.

Global sentiment improves, but caution persists

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Market participants said the development has improved sentiment slightly, with US futures trading higher and Asian markets showing signs of recovery. However, the absence of clarity on negotiations is likely to keep markets in a narrow range.

Markets neutral with positive bias

Market expert Anil Singhvi said the overall signal for Indian markets remains neutral with a mild positive bias. He said the extension of the ceasefire indicates that the US does not want a full-scale conflict, which is supportive for equities, but the continued restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz are preventing a strong rally.

Nifty levels and targets to watch

According to Singhvi, the Nifty is expected to see support around the 24,350–24,400 zone, while a stronger base is placed near 24,200. He said as long as the index holds above 24,200, the broader trend remains intact, and declines could be used as buying opportunities.

On the upside, he sees resistance around 24,650–24,700, and a decisive move above this range could push the index towards 24,900–25,000 levels.

Bank Nifty shows relative strength

He added that Bank Nifty continues to show relative strength compared to the broader market. The index is likely to find support near 56,500–56,700, with a stronger floor around 56,000. On the higher side, resistance is seen near 57,500, and a breakout above this level may lead to an upside towards 58,200–58,500.

Oil prices and Iran pressure are key triggers

International market expert Ajay Bagga said the ceasefire extension has reduced immediate geopolitical risk but has not eliminated concerns due to the ongoing blockade. He said crude oil prices remain elevated near the USD 95–100 range, reflecting supply-side uncertainty.

Bagga said the next 10 to 15 days will be critical for global markets as Iran faces increasing pressure due to disruption in oil exports. He noted that Iran is incurring significant financial losses and has limited storage capacity, which may push it towards negotiations.

He added that if tensions escalate again, crude oil prices could move above USD 100 per barrel, which would be negative for global equities. On the other hand, any indication of formal talks or a deal could lead to a cooling of oil prices towards the USD 90 mark, providing support to markets.

Range-bound trend likely, focus on triggers

Experts said Indian markets are currently being supported by domestic factors, including steady buying by institutional investors and resilience in broader markets. Midcap and smallcap stocks continue to perform well and are trading close to their recent highs, indicating strong underlying momentum.

However, they cautioned that markets may not see a sharp directional move until there is clarity on the geopolitical situation. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key trigger, as it directly impacts global oil supply and inflation expectations.

Anil Singhvi said the current setup favours a buy-on-dips strategy rather than aggressive buying at higher levels. He noted that traders should remain cautious near resistance zones and wait for a clear breakout before adding fresh positions.

What Should Investors Do?

Experts said the ceasefire extension by Donald J. Trump signals a willingness to avoid immediate conflict, which is positive for sentiment. At the same time, the lack of progress on negotiations and the continued blockade suggest that markets will remain sensitive to global cues.

They said the next decisive move in markets will depend on whether Iran comes forward with a proposal, whether talks begin, or whether tensions escalate again. Until then, indices are likely to trade in a defined range with stock-specific action dominating the trend.