Can crude oil stay below $100? Anil Singhvi explains why prices are swinging sharply

Oil prices recovered in early trade on Thursday after witnessing a sharp decline in the previous session, as investors continued to assess developments related to a possible peace deal in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures rose 88 cents, or 0.9 per cent, to USD 102.15 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained USD 1.12, or 1.2 per cent, to USD 96.20 per barrel in early trade.

Both benchmarks had dropped more than 7 per cent on Wednesday and touched two-week lows after optimism increased around the possibility of an end to the Middle East conflict.

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However, prices recovered partially after US President Donald Trump said it was “too soon” for direct talks with Tehran. A senior Iranian lawmaker also reportedly said the US proposal was more of a “wish list” than a practical reality.

Anil Singhvi sees strong resistance near $112-$115

Market expert Anil Singhvi said crude oil prices continue to remain highly volatile, with strong resistance emerging near the USD 112-USD 115 range. Speaking about the recent movement in crude oil, Singhvi said prices have repeatedly failed to sustain above those levels despite multiple attempts.

“Crude is witnessing a very volatile trade. Prices move sharply up and down. One thing is very clear: whenever crude reaches around USD 112-USD 115 and tries to move higher, it does not sustain there,” Singhvi said.

He added that crude oil crossed those levels only once during the June series monthly expiry, when prices briefly touched USD 126. However, the rally did not continue, and prices corrected sharply afterwards.

According to Singhvi, the market is now witnessing a broad trading range, with selling pressure at higher levels and buying support at lower levels.

Support emerging near $90-$95 levels

Singhvi said support for crude oil is currently visible near the USD 90-USD 95 range. “Whenever crude approaches USD 112-USD 115, selling pressure comes in. On the other hand, support starts emerging around the USD 90-USD 95 levels,” he said.

He noted that crude oil had recently slipped to near USD 96 during global trading hours before recovering to the USD 101-USD 102 range.

According to Singhvi, the return of crude prices to earlier levels is one of the reasons behind the subdued trend seen in Gift Nifty and domestic market sentiment.

“Yesterday crude was around USD 102, and even today it is trading around similar levels. That is why there is some softness in Gift Nifty,” he said.

He also said global markets have already factored in much of the optimism linked to trade developments and geopolitical expectations, limiting fresh upside momentum in equities.

Crude above $100 not favourable for India: Singhvi

Singhvi said India would prefer crude oil prices to remain below USD 90 over the long term, as higher prices can create pressure on the economy.

“For the long term, we do not want crude above USD 100. India will get relief if crude remains in the USD 80-USD 90 range,” he said.

He added that crude oil had already crossed the bullish targets he had expected earlier this year. Singhvi recalled that when crude was trading near USD 60 at the beginning of the year, he had projected targets around USD 85-USD 90.

“At that time, nobody knew how quickly global tensions would rise. Otherwise, people would have started talking about USD 120 crude instead of USD 90,” he said.

However, he clarified that while the broader direction turned out correct, the speed of the rally was unexpected. Singhvi also highlighted that apart from crude prices, foreign institutional investor activity and domestic fund buying are influencing market direction.

“There are multiple reasons behind the cautious trend. Domestic funds have bought strongly while foreign investors have not shown similar buying interest,” he said.

Traders advised to track crude and equity markets closely

Singhvi advised traders and investors to monitor both crude oil prices and equity markets closely because of the strong relationship between the two.

“You have to keep one eye on crude and one eye on Nifty,” Singhvi said. Crude oil remains one of the most important global indicators for inflation, currency movement and market sentiment, especially for import-dependent economies like India.