Buy on dips? What war-time markets are telling investors now

Despite rising geopolitical uncertainty triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict, Indian equity markets have so far avoided panic selling. Monday’s session saw a decline, but the fall remained orderly, signalling what market experts describe as a phase of “calculated wait-and-watch” rather than fear-driven exits.

Speaking on Zee Business with market analyst Anil Singhvi, veteran investors and strategists including Nilesh Shah, Feroze Azeez, Ajay Bagga and Gurmeet Chadha said markets are factoring in risks but are not pricing in a worst-case scenario yet.

Oil and remittances are the real risk: Nilesh Shah

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According to Nilesh Shah, Managing Director and CEO of Kotak Mutual Fund, India faces two key vulnerabilities from the Middle East conflict. The first is crude oil. India depends heavily on supplies that come through Strait of Hormuz and is the world’s third-largest oil importer. Any disruption could hit both prices and availability.

The second risk is remittances from over 9 million Indians working in the Middle East, which form a crucial part of India’s foreign exchange inflows.

However, Shah pointed out that crude prices have cooled from around $81 per barrel to nearly $77, while OPEC has signalled supply support. “Markets are currently assuming that the conflict will remain contained,” he said, cautioning that a nuclear or wider escalation could still trigger a sharp correction. His advice to investors: continue SIPs but avoid aggressive lump-sum investments for now.

No crash, but more volatility possible: Feroze Azeez

Feroze Azeez, Joint CEO at Anand Rathi Wealth, said the recent 1-1.5 per cent market decline is well within normal limits during geopolitical stress. Strong buying by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) has helped cushion the fall.

While he does not rule out another 5-7 per cent downside, Azeez believes any such correction is unlikely to be prolonged. He sees selective opportunities emerging in defence, banking, consumption and quality small-cap stocks.

Strong macros support buy-on-dips strategy: Gurmeet Chadha

Gurmeet Chadha of Complete Circle Wealth said India’s market response has been mature, helped by stable crude prices and a relatively steady rupee. He expects the conflict to remain regional, noting Iran’s limited external military support.

Chadha highlighted India’s strong macro fundamentals—GDP growth of 7.8 per cent, manufacturing growth above 13 per cent, and robust PMI readings. His strategy focuses on staggered buying on declines, with gold as a hedge. Defence, telecom, pharma and financials remain his preferred sectors.

Markets pricing talks, Not full-scale war: Ajay Bagga

Ajay Bagga noted that Asian markets rebounding after early weakness suggest investors believe the conflict will stay limited. The absence of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and softer rhetoric from the US have eased immediate concerns.

Crude oil slipping from above $80 to the $75-76 range reflects lower fears of a supply shock. “Markets are pricing negotiations and survival, not a prolonged war,” Bagga said.

Markets not in panic mode

To sum up the opinion of all three experts, it can be suggested that Indian markets are prepared for volatility but is not in panic. Oil prices remain majorly under control, domestic fund flows are robust, and macro fundamentals continue to derive support. A sharp sell-off or crash appears likely only if the conflict escalates significantly beyond current expectations.