April Series Kicks Off: Anil Singhvi decodes market setup with key numbers | Editor's take

Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects markets to remain firm in the April series. He said easing global tensions, softer crude prices, and favourable derivatives positioning could support a near-term rally. He, however, flagged foreign investor selling as a key risk.

Global cues improve sentiment

Global markets rallied after fresh signals of de-escalation in the Iran-United States conflict. Iran’s leadership indicated it does not want war and is open to ending hostilities if security guarantees are ensured.

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US President Donald Trump also hinted at an early exit strategy. He said the US could move out even without a full deal.

Crude oil prices cooled from around $110 to near $105 per barrel. This came as concerns eased over disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s move to consider a toll mechanism instead of closure also reassured markets.

FY27 may see strong recovery

Singhvi said markets have shown a consistent recovery trend after weak financial years.

(Source: Zee Business Reserach)

“Whenever the Nifty 50 has delivered negative returns in a financial year, the following year has seen strong gains,” he said.

FY26 ended with a decline of about 5.05 per cent. Historical data shows sharp rebounds in similar situations. For instance, FY09 was followed by a 73.7 per cent rally in FY10, while FY20 saw a 70.8 per cent jump in FY21.

April series trend remains strong

According to Zee Business Research, April has been a consistently strong series for markets.

(Souce: Zee Business Research)

“Nifty and Bank Nifty have been positive in 9 out of the last 10 April series,” the research note showed. Gains have typically ranged between 0.5 per cent and 5 per cent.

Positioning hints at short covering

March series saw sharp declines. Data from Zee Business Research showed Nifty fell 13.15 per cent, while Bank Nifty dropped 17.94 per cent.

At the same time, FIIs maintained low long positions below 22 per cent for nine consecutive series. Short positions saw heavy rollover.

“Historically, whenever March series has been negative, April series has delivered positive returns,” Singhvi said, citing Zee Business Research data.

First day of series may stay positive

Momentum on the first day of the derivatives series has remained strong.

Data compiled by Zee Business Research showed that Nifty has gained between 58 and 321 points on the first day in the last six series.

“Markets have a high probability of extending gains on the first day of the April series as well,” Singhvi said.

Key positives for markets

Singhvi listed multiple supporting factors for the current rally.

He said softer geopolitical stance, cooling crude prices, strong global markets, and light positioning at the start of the series are positive triggers.

He also pointed to regulatory relief from the Reserve Bank of India, which deferred stricter broker funding norms for three months.

Risks remain despite optimism

Singhvi cautioned that risks have not fully faded.

“Iran has only given initial signals for talks. There is no concrete ceasefire yet,” he said.

He added that crude prices are still elevated and uncertainty around full access to the Strait of Hormuz persists.

Persistent selling by FIIs also remains a concern. “Markets tend to see selling on every gap-up opening. A sustained recovery in the rupee is also important,” he noted.

Strategy on gap-up opening

On trading strategy, Singhvi advised caution.

“Investors should be careful on gap-up openings as selling pressure often emerges at higher levels,” he said.

He added that recent lows are unlikely to be broken immediately, but sustained upside will depend on stability in global cues and improvement in foreign investor flows.