Anil Singhvi Market Strategy (May 14): Important levels to track in Nifty 50, Nifty Bank today amid Indo-Pak ceasefire

Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Amid a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan agreed upon by both sides on Pakistan's request, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the headline Nifty50 index at 24,400-24,500 levels and a stronger support zone at 24,275-24,375 levels on Wednesday, May 14. 

For the Nifty Bank, the market wizard expects support at 54,550-54,675 levels and a stronger support zone at 54,175-54,375 levels. 

How market guru Anil Singhvi sums up trade setup: 

• Global: Neutral

• FII: Negative

• DII: Positive

• F&O: Neutral

• Sentiment: Cautious

• Trend: Positive

• FII long positions at 38 per cent vs 50 per cent before Tuesday's session

• Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) at 0.85 vs 1.29

• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.83 vs 0.90

• Volatility index India VIX down 1 per cent at 18.20

The market wizard sees a higher zone at 24,650-24,750 levels and a strong sell zone at 24,800-24,925 levels for the headline index.

For the banking index, he sees a higher zone at 55,300-55,475 levels and a profit-booking zone at 55,575-55,700 levels. 

Why did FIIs change their minds suddenly? What's the reason behind outflows?

• FIIs net sold equities in cash, stock and index futures to the tune of Rs 14,400 crore on Tuesday
• Excluding the Rs 3,900-crore Paytm and KFintech, mild buying was observed in the cash market
• DII inflows at Rs 4274 crore
• The main reason behind the FII outflows is the US-China trade deal
• FIIs perhaps diddn't expect a deal so easily and so soon
• There are concern about a possible flow of funds to China from India
• The market was aware of it on Monday but short-covering dominated that day
• Operation Sindoor is paused, not over; this also caused some profit-taking
• Some selling occurred at the 25,000 mark

How positive is easing inflation for Dalal Street?

• The market is getting positive macroeconomic signals, one after another
• Inflation continues to ease for the sixth month in a row, at 6-year low
• This will make it easier for the RBI to cut COVID-era interest rates further

Is 25,000 a difficult obstacle for Nifty50?

• The marke has displayed a clear direction for two back-to-back sessions; some sideways moves may be expected now
• Good economic indicators may help the market stay afloat, avoiding a bigger fall
• However, profit-taking by FIIs may come in the way of higher levels
• One should wait for the Nifty50 to break out of its range of the past three sessions
• Strong support exists at Friday's low near 24,000
• Resistance is placed at Tuesday's high of 25,000
• FII mood will determine market direction
• Till then, one should take stock- and sector-specific calls

Which sectors can attrack strong buying interest?

• A rerating is expect for the defence space
• Homegrown companies are delivering great product at relatively lower in comparison to foreign companies 
• The power of domestic defence companies' products is visible in Operation Sindoor
• Small as well as big countries are set to order weaponry from India
• Domestic demand will continue to be robust
• Defence stocks will continue to command high valuations
• Yet, these stocks are cheaper compared to global defence stocks

EDITOR'S TAKE | Cooling US inflation, Nasdaq rally to boost Indian IT stocks...

• Small stocks are still available at reasonable valuations; there is room for buying
• Lower chances of FII selling in midcap and smallcap stocks now
• Easing US inflation is a positive sign for Dalal Street
• Nasdaq rally is set to boost Indian IT stocks
• No inclusion in the MSCI index will keep Paytm shares under pressure
• Profit-booking can occur at higher levels in Nykaa shares

ANIL SINGHVI MARKET STRATEGY | How to trade Nifty Bank and Nifty50?

For existing long positions: 

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 24,450

• Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 54,500

For existing short positions:

• Nifty intraday stop loss at 24,700 and closing stop loss at 24,925

• Nifty Bank intraday stop loss at 55,500 and closing stop loss at 55,650

For new positions in Nifty50:

• The best range to buy Nifty is 24,350-24,500 with a stop loss at 24,250 for targets of 24,575, 24,650, 24,700, 24,750, 24,850 and 24,925

• The best range to sell Nifty is 24,750-24,900 with a stop loss at 25,000 for targets of 24,650, 24,600, 24,550, 24,500, 24,450 and 24,400

For new positions in Nifty Bank:

• Aggressive traders can buy Nifty Bank in the 54,550-54,675 range with a strict stop loss at 54,350 for targets of 54,875, 54,950, 55,075, 55,175, 55,375 and 55,475

• Aggressive traders an sell Nifty Bank in the 55,450-55,650 range with a strict stop loss at 55,750 for targets of 55,375, 55,300, 55,175, 55,100, 55,000 and 54,925

Stocks in F&O ban

• Already in ban: CDSL, Manppuram Finance
• New in ban: None
• Out of ban: None

RESULTS REVIEW 

Tata Motors 

• Mixed results
• Cautious guidance due to tariff war uncertainty
• Buy Tata Motors futures at the support level of Rs 700; a higher level is expected at Rs 725

Bharti Airtel 

• Results in line with estimates
• Strong free cash flow
• Increased dividend is positive
• Buy Bharti Airtel futures at support placed at Rs 1,800; higher levels are expected at Rs 1,870 and Rs 1,890

Siemens 

• Operationally weak performance
• Sell Siemens futures for targets of Rs 2,910, Rs 2,890 and Rs 2,860 with a stop loss at Rs 2,960 

Max Financial

Strong operational performance

Buy Max Financial futures for targets of Rs 1,310, Rs 1,325 and Rs 1,345 with a stop loss at Rs 1,280  

STOCKS OF THE DAY

Buy Garden Reach Shipbuilders shares for targets of Rs 1,945, Rs 1,995 and Rs 2,025 with a stop loss at Rs 1,895 

• Extraordinary strong results 
• Impressive operational performance
• Defense stocks to remain in limelight

Buy GSK Pharma shares for targets of Rs 2,825, Rs 2,875 and Rs 2,940 with a stop loss at Rs 2,750 

• Strong operational performance 
• Margin has improved from 27.70 per cent to 34 per cent 

Buy Dalmia Bharat Sugar shares for targets of Rs 418, Rs 424 and Rs 430 with a stop loss at Rs 402 

• Strong results on all parameters

Buy ASK Automotive shares for targets of Rs 445, Rs 450 and Rs 460 with a stop loss at Rs 430 

• Excellent results on all parameters

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