Anil Singhvi Market Strategy (June 12): How to trade Nifty 50, Nifty Bank today? Key levels to track & more

Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the Nifty50 index at 25,000-25,075 levels and a strong buy zone at 24,800-24,950 levels on Thursday, June 12. For the Nifty Bank, the market wizard expects support at 56,000-56,150 levels and a strong buy zone at 55,750-55,925 levels. 

How market guru Anil Singhvi sums up trade setup: 

• Global: Neutral

• FII: Neutral

• DII: Neutral

• F&O: Neutral

• Sentiment: Positive

• Trend: Positive

• FII long positions at 22 per cent vs 20 per cent before Wednesday's session

• Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) unchanged at 0.97 

• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.96 vs 0.98

• Volatility index India VIX down 2.5 per cent at 13.66

The market wizard expects a higher zone at 25,150-25,235 levels and a profit-booking zone at 25,300-25,400 levels for the headline index.

For the banking index, he expects a higher zone at 56,850-57,000 levels and a "blue-sky zone" above the 57,050 mark.

Has a US-China trade deal been materialised?

• US President Donald Trump has announced a deal "from his side"
• Final approval from China President Xi Jinping is still pending
• Under the deal, the US will get rare earth mineral supplies from China
• The US will allow Chinese students to study there 
• Trump claims the US gains 55 per cent from the deal, while China gets only 10 per cent

How much trust should investors place in the deal announcement?

• Till now, Trump’s formula: more talk, less action
• Trump is always overly eager to take credit for a deal
• Until China gives a green signal, one should not consider the deal final

Is a recession looming in the world's largest economy?

• Treasury Secretary Scott Besent has said that the biggest recession since 2008 could hit the US if the debt ceiling isn’t raised  
• Hence, the debt limit must be raised under any circumstances
• Trade deal talks are on with 18 countries 
• The 90-day tariff freeze deadline should be extended
• A recession in the US is the single biggest threat to both global and Indian markets
• If the US goes into a recession, it will affect everyone
• That’s the big difference between India and the US
• Trump isn’t listening to his own finance minister

How concerning are the rising US-Iran tensions?

• A weakened America is now being challenged by Iran
• Trump is struggling with global tariff wars and domestic unrest
• Crude oil benchmark hitting the $70 a barrel mark is a slightly negative sign
• This could come in the way of a rally in oil companies

Should investors buy or sell crude oil at $70?

• US-Iran tensions have pushed crude oil higher
• This may halt the rally in oil companies
• Stocks like ONGC and OIL India are likely to remain strong

Will slowing FII & DII inflows create pressure?

• FIIs sold Rs 446 crore in cash on Thursday following three days of buying
• DIIs continued their buying spree for the 17th straight day, inflows recorded at Rs 1,585 crore 
• Both FIIs and DIIs are showing signs of slowing activity
• Nifty has been gaining for six straight sessions
• Nifty Bank has weakened for two days
• After a one-sided rally, the market may take a breather

What to make of Nifty Bank's weakness?

• Nifty Bank often leads rallies as well as corrections
• It has signaled a slowing of its recent rally
• The banking index is expected to stay within the 56,000-57,000 range for now
• One should wait for a breakout from this range for a big move

Market strong, sentiment weak?

• Market enthusiasm remains grim despite six days of gains
• Wednesday's sudden dip has weakened sentiment
• Profit-booking seen in midcap and smallcap stocks after several days
• A slower pace of gains has kept overall sentiment from turning strong

ANIL SINGHVI MARKET STRATEGY | How to trade Nifty Bank and Nifty50?

For existing long positions: 

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 24,950

• Nifty Bank intraday stop loss at 56,350 and closing stop loss at 56,000

For existing short positions:

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 25,250

• Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 56,850

For new positions in Nifty50:

• Aggressive traders can buy Nifty in the 24,950-25,075 range with a strict stop loss at 24,800 for targets of 25,100, 25,150, 25,200, 25,225, 25,300 and 25,335

• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty in the 25,200-25,300 range with a strict stop loss at 25,400 for targets of 25,150, 25,100, 25,075, 25,000, 24,950 and 24,900

For new positions in Nifty Bank:

• The best range to buy Nifty Bank is 56,000-56,150 with a stop loss at 55,800 for targets of 56,400, 56,475, 56,575, 56,625, 56,675 and 56,775

• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty Bank in the 56,675-56,850 range with a strict stop loss at 57,000 for targets of 56,625, 56,575, 56,450, 56,400, 56,150 and 56,025

Stocks in F&O ban

• New in ban: CDSL, IEX

• Already in ban: IREDA, RBL Bank, Titagarh Rail, Hindustan Copper, Chambal Fertilisers, AB Fashion

• Out of ban: None

Stocks of the Day: BHEL, Paytm, Tanla, ONGC, OIL India, GAIL, BPCL, HPCL

Sell BHEL futures for targets of Rs 254, Rs 251 and Rs 245 with a stop loss at Rs 262 

• After a sharp run, profit-booking is expected in the counter

Sell Paytm futures for targets of Rs 955, Rs 945 and Rs 935 with a stop loss at Rs 982 

• Finance Ministry has denied reports suggesting the introduction of MDR on UPI payments 
• This is sentimentally negative for Paytm

Buy Tanla Platforms shares for targets of Rs 635, Rs 645 and Rs 655 with a stop loss at Rs 616 

• The company's board is set to meet on June 16 to consider a buyback

Buy ONGC futures for targets of Rs 251, Rs 254 and Rs 258 with a stop loss at Rs 244; buy OIL India futures for targets of Rs 471, Rs 475 and Rs 480 with a stop loss at Rs 455   

Sell HPCL futures for targets of Rs 410, Rs 407 and Rs 401 with a stop loss at Rs 425; sell BPCL futures for targets of Rs 328, Rs 323 and Rs 320 with a stop loss at Rs 341

• Crude oil at $70/barrel is positive for PSU refiners and negative for oil marketing companies

Buy GAIL futures for targets of Rs 203, Rs 205 and Rs 209 with a stop loss at Rs 197 

• Gas stock are looking strong