Anil Singhvi Market Strategy (Jan 28): How to trade Nifty50, Nifty Bank today

Anil Singhvi Market Strategy Today: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the Nifty50 index emerging at 24,925-25,050 levels and a stronger support zone at 24,800-24,900 levels on Wednesday, January 28.

The market wizard sees support for the Nifty Bank coming in at 58,800-59,000 levels and a strong buy area at 58,275-58,500 levels.

How market guru Anil Singhvi sums up the trade setup:

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• Global: Neutral
• FII: Negative
• DII: Positive
• F&O: Neutral
• Sentiment: Cautious
• Trend: Neutral

• FII long positions at 11.85 per cent vs 14.67 per cent before Tuesday's session

• Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) at 1.12 vs 0.70

• Nifty Bank PCR at 1.01 vs 0.70

• Volatility index India VIX up 2 per cent at 14.45

For the headline index, the market wizard expects a higher zone at 25,235-25,350 levels and a strong sell zone at 25,425-25,500 levels.

For the banking index, he expects a higher zone at 59,425-59,575 levels and a strong sell zone at 59,775-59,975 levels.

ANIL SINGHVI MARKET STRATEGY | How to trade Nifty Bank and Nifty50

For existing long positions:

• Nifty intraday stop loss at 24,900 and closing stop loss at 25,000
• Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 58,800

For existing short positions:

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 25,250
• Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 59,500

For new positions in Nifty50:

• The best range to buy Nifty is 24,925-25,050 with a stop loss at 24,850 for targets of 25,150, 25,175, 25,235, 25,300, 25,350 and 25,425

• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty in the 25,300-25,425 range with a strict stop loss at 25,525 for targets of 25,250, 25,175, 25,150, 25,050, 25,025 and 24,935

For new positions in Nifty Bank:

• The best range to buy Nifty Bank is 58,500-58,800 with a stop loss at 58,250 for targets of 59,000, 59,200, 59,350, 59,425, 59,500, 59,575 and 59,775

• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty Bank in the 59,425-59,575 range with a strict stop loss at 59,800 for targets of 59,200, 59,000, 58,800, 58,500, 58,350 and 58,275

Stocks in futures & options (F&O) ban

• Already in ban: Sammaan Capital
• New in ban: None
• Out of ban: None

What to expect in the February F&O series?

• Nifty gave up 763 points in the January series -- its worst performance in a monthly series since July
• Nifty Bank gained 34 points -- a fourth straight positive series
• This takes the banking index's total gain in four series to 4,568 points
• Nifty50 and Nifty Bank rollovers appear to be weaker in February compared to the previous series
• FII index futures long positions stand at 11.80 per cent -- it is for a sixth straight series that their positions at below 20 per cent at the onset of a fresh series
• In both gauges, February has been a negative series in three out of the last five, and six out of the last 10 years
• February series is usually negative due to caution before Union Budget

Did the market stage a false breakdown on Friday?

• On Friday, for the first time in 8 months, Nifty stop loss slipped below its 200-day moving average (DMA) of 25,154; the very next day, it recovered to close at 25,175
• Nifty Bank formed a higher high and higher low pattern, signalling rising volatility
• In intraday trade, it hit a two-month low of 58,121 and took support near the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 58,137; the banking index closed below its 50 DMA (59,330) for a fourth straight day before ending at 59,200
• That marked its first closing below key support at 58,800 for the first time in two months -- that marked a range breakdown
• Then it moved back above the same level within a day
• The key question is: did Nifty50 and Nifty Bank stage false breakdowns?
• A fresh close below 25,050 for Nifty50 and 58,800 for Nifty Bank would signal further weakness in the market now

Is Nifty50 oversold?

• Typically, Nifty50 is considered oversold when its RSI falls below the 30 mark
• Nifty50 RSI stop loss moved to 28 on January 21 and then to 29 on Friday
• Since 2022, Nifty has entered oversold territory (RSI below 30) as many as six times
• In five out of those six instances, the fall stalled and a strong recovery followed; each recovery saw gains to the tune of 6.5-18 per cent
• It was only once (in October 2024) when the headline index fell despite the RSI being at 28
• It remains to be seen whether Nifty50 stages a recovery from the oversold zone this time too

How to trade buzzing stocks | RIL, ICICI Bank...

Reliance Industries

• The stock has weakened for a third straight day; touching a three-month intraday low of Rs 1,368
• It has formed a lower high and lower low formation for a second straight day, signalling continued weakness

ICICI Bank

• The stock has hit a two-month intraday low of Rs 1,328 but then staged a strong recovery to close at Rs 1,361
• A seven-day downtrend in ICICI Bank has abated, with a higher high and lower low formation that suggests rising volatility

Auto sector likely to remain under pressure

• Metals are expected to stay strong due to weakness in the greenback
• Hindustan Zinc OFS has hit Street
• A strong response is expected