After 46% crash in 1 year, Will this Tata Group stock fall or rally? Brokerages divided

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) shares remained in focus on June 18 after Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) outlined its FY27 guidance at its Investor Day, prompting mixed reactions from brokerages.

TMPV shares were trading at Rs 359.85, down 0.32 per cent. The stock has fallen 46.27 per cent over the past year and is trading well below its 52-week high of Rs 739.70 touched in October 2025. The company's market capitalisation stood at Rs 1.33 lakh crore.

JLR outlines FY27 guidance

JLR guided for FY27 revenue of GBP26 billion, implying around 13 per cent year-on-year growth. The luxury carmaker expects an EBIT margin of 4 per cent, operating cash flow break-even and capital expenditure of GBP3.7 billion during the year.

Brokerages gave mixed views on the stock following the guidance, with target prices ranging from Rs 300 to Rs 452.

Motilal Oswal, Jefferies remain cautious

Motilal Oswal maintained a "Sell" rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 312. Based on the current market price of Rs 359.85, the target implies a downside of around 13.3 per cent.

The brokerage said JLR continues to face multiple headwinds, including tariff pressures, challenges in the China market and inflationary pressures. It also highlighted the absence of FY28 guidance, which it said points to limited earnings visibility.

"Given the persistent challenges at JLR, we reiterate our Sell rating on TMPV with a TP of Rs 312 per share," Motilal Oswal said.

Jefferies retained its "Underperform" rating and target price of Rs 300. The target suggests a downside of around 16.6 per cent from the current market price.

The brokerage said JLR's FY27 guidance was subdued and pointed to multiple challenges, including rising competition, higher discounts, warranty costs and elevated capital work and product-development expenditure. It also noted that some of JLR's key models are ageing.

Morgan Stanley, Nomura see limited upside

Morgan Stanley maintained its "Equalweight" rating with a target price of Rs 367, implying a potential upside of around 2 per cent from the current level.

The brokerage said JLR had a tough FY26 but noted that FY27 guidance was broadly in line with expectations and better than feared. It added that revenue guidance was slightly higher than its estimate, though margins were marginally lower.

Nomura maintained a "Neutral" rating with a target price of Rs 373, implying an upside of around 3.7 per cent.

The brokerage said JLR's FY27 guidance was slightly below expectations but noted that the company is targeting double-digit revenue growth over the coming years. Nomura added that the stock's valuation at 3.5 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA appears fair considering existing risks.

CLSA remains bullish

CLSA remained positive on the stock and maintained its "Accumulate" rating, though it cut the target price to Rs 452 from Rs 468. The revised target indicates a potential upside of about 25.6 per cent.

The brokerage highlighted several positives from the Investor Day. These include five planned launches over the next 18 months, continued focus on hybrid and diesel offerings, cost-reduction measures and efforts to lower free cash flow break-even volumes to around 300,000 units by FY28.

CLSA also noted that JLR's China joint venture will pay a royalty for Freelander retail sales in China, which was not factored into its earlier estimates.

Citi, Goldman Sachs stay cautious

Citi maintained its "Sell" rating and lowered its target price to Rs 320 from Rs 330. The target implies a downside of around 11.1 per cent.

According to Citi, JLR's FY27 guidance appears cautious. The brokerage said management expects double-digit revenue growth over the next five years and is targeting a reduction in cash break-even volumes to 300,000 units from 425,000 units in FY26.

Citi also said a major strategic shift is underway, with JLR increasing its focus on the North American market. The brokerage added that management is expected to provide longer-term guidance, along with the India passenger vehicle business outlook, during TMPV's Investor Day scheduled for June 23.

Goldman Sachs maintained its "Neutral" stance and cut its target price to Rs 355 from Rs 365. The revised target indicates a marginal downside of about 1.3 per cent from the current market price.