15% Duty on Gold, Silver: Anil Singhvi decodes what it means for jewellery stocks and the market today

15% Duty on Gold, Silver: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Wednesday, May 13, despite weak undertones in the broader market after a sharp four-session decline.

GIFT Nifty

Gift Nifty trends signalled a positive start for domestic equities. Gift Nifty was trading near the 23,450 mark, a premium of nearly 27 points over Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a mildly firm opening for the benchmark indices.

Previous session recap

On Tuesday, Indian equities extended losses for the fourth straight session amid persistent selling pressure, weak global cues, and rising market volatility.

The Sensex declined 1,456.04 points, or 1.92 per cent, to close at 74,559.24. The Nifty 50 fell 436.30 points, or 1.83 per cent, to settle at 23,379.55, slipping below the key 23,400 level.

Gold, silver import duty hike in focus

Market participants are expected to closely track the government’s decision to sharply raise import duties on gold and silver.

The Centre increased the total import duty on gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent with immediate effect. The revised structure includes 10 per cent customs duty and 5 per cent agriculture cess.

The move is aimed at curbing imports, protecting foreign exchange reserves, narrowing the current account deficit, and containing pressure on the Indian rupee.

According to Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi, the duty hike could trigger further weakness in jewellery stocks on Wednesday.

He said companies dependent on silver as a raw material may also remain under pressure, while solar panel makers and EMS companies could see a marginal negative impact. However, gold loan companies may witness some positive sentiment.

At the same time, shares of Hindustan Zinc are expected to remain in focus amid expectations of gains linked to silver prices and supply dynamics.

Will Nifty 50 fill the April gap?

Anil Singhvi said the Nifty 50 has now broken below the crucial 23,800 support zone, increasing the risk of further downside.

He highlighted that before the ceasefire-related rally on April 7, the Nifty had touched a high of 23,153. On April 8, the index opened with a major upside gap, with the day’s low placed near 23,828.

According to him, that unfilled gap is now likely to act as a downside magnet for the market.

He expects the Nifty 50 to move towards the 23,150 zone to fill the remaining gap, indicating another 225–250 points of downside from current levels. A close below 23,100 could trigger deeper weakness in the market, he said.

Bank Nifty support seen near 52,800

The Bank Nifty also slipped below the important 54,200 support level in the previous session.

Singhvi noted that the banking index may now head towards the 52,800 zone to fill the April gap. Before the April 7 ceasefire rally, Bank Nifty had hit a high of 52,778, while the April 8 session opened sharply higher with a low near 54,797.

He said the remaining downside gap could now get filled, implying another 775–850 points of potential correction in Bank Nifty. A close below 52,700 may lead to sharper weakness, according to him.

India VIX surge raises caution

Volatility indicator India VIX has emerged as a key concern for traders after rising sharply over the last few sessions.

India VIX climbed 3.9 per cent on Tuesday to close near a seven-day high of 19.28. Singhvi pointed out that the volatility index had taken support near its 100-day moving average level of 15.17 on May 7 and has since surged sharply.

He noted that a similar spike in VIX earlier this year had preceded a sharp correction in equities. From the May 7 low to the May 12 high, India VIX jumped nearly 28 per cent intraday, while the Nifty 50 dropped around 950 points over four trading sessions.

According to Singhvi, sustained strength in VIX may signal the possibility of further market weakness in the near term.

Key market triggers for today

Investors will track multiple factors during Wednesday’s trade, including:

• Impact of higher gold and silver import duty on sectors and stocks
• Rupee movement and chances of recovery
• Foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic institutional investor (DII) flows
• Crude oil prices near the $106 mark
• Global cues linked to US President Donald Trump and his China visit
• Whether the market can break its four-day losing streak