Weather Update: IMD predicts above-normal temperatures, heatwaves in May

Weather Update: As the country braces for the monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday issued a cautionary outlook for May, warning of above-normal temperatures and a likely rise in heatwave occurrences across several regions.

While northern India is likely to receive above-average rainfall, other parts--especially the northwest, central, and northeast--may experience drier-than-usual conditions, IMD's Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said in a virtual press conference on Wednesday.

As per IMD DG, April 2025 saw sharp weather contrasts. The month was the 50th driest April recorded nationwide since 1901. Yet southern and central India recorded substantial rainfall. The southern peninsular region experienced its 13th highest April rainfall since 1901 and 5th highest since 2001, while central India recorded its 28th highest April on record.

Temperatures continued to rise during this month. Maximum daily temperatures across India were the 8th highest ever recorded for April, while minimum temperatures ranked 9th highest. Most regions in northwest, central, and northeast India recorded normal to above-normal daytime temperatures, and some areas in the peninsular and east-central regions avoided the worst of the heat.

Notably, there was a sharp increase in heatwave activity during April. Western India was hit hardest, with Rajasthan and Gujarat experiencing between 6 to 11 heatwave days, significantly higher than the average of 2 to 3. East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha recorded 4 to 6 heatwave days, while Maharashtra and nearby areas saw slightly fewer than usual.

The IMD reported a major heatwave from April 3 to 10 across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh. Shorter but intense heatwaves followed later in the month, culminating in 72 days of heatwave or severe heatwave conditions across various meteorological subdivisions in the country.

Looking ahead, May is expected to bring even hotter weather. The IMD forecasts above-normal maximum temperatures across most of India, except for some areas in the southern peninsular and eastern regions where temperatures may be near normal or slightly below. However, minimum temperatures are likely to remain elevated nationwide.

The number of heatwave days is also projected to increase.

The IMD anticipates an additional 1 to 4 days of heatwave conditions in key regions, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal, as well as parts of Gujarat, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Telangana, and northern Karnataka.

Rainfall in May will likely be mixed. Northern India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall, exceeding the long-term average of 64.1 mm, but below-normal precipitation is expected in parts of northwest, central, and northeast India. Elsewhere, rainfall is expected to range from normal to above-normal.

Meanwhile, oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain neutral, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected to persist through the northern summer. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also forecast to stay in a neutral phase.