Modi's win, slide in crude oil rate and rise in rupee to help Nifty climb 13,700? Check stock experts' forecast
Opinion Polls' findings of Narendra Modi coming back to power, rupee rising up to 65-66/dollar, crashing crude oil may lift Nifty up to 13,700, say experts.
On account of rupee gaining against the US dollar, crude oil correcting to the tune of 8-9 per cent, Fed chief changing his stance from hawkish to dovish on rate change issue and majority of the Opinion Polls finding Narendra Modi coming back to power, Indian indices are expected to continue its rally and scale new highs further, though it's already trading at its all-time high. The market experts are expecting the 50-stock Nifty to break 13,000 levels and further scale up to 13,700 by mid-2019.
VK Sharma, Head PCG & Capital Markets Strategy at HDFC Securities told Zee Business online, "The last time the Nifty was at these levels of 10,760 was on 28th August 2018. WTI Crude was at $68.50 a barrel and Rupee was at 70.11/dollar. Today the Crude is down 8.3 per cent and the Rupee is 2.02 per cent is up. The Yield on the 10-year bond was 7.896 per cent and is now lower at 7.265 per cent." He said that the RBI may change its stance from neutral to accommodative in view of the global and domestic growth weakness that will help NBFCs and Real Estate to do well.
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On how it would impact Indian markets VK Sharma of HDFC Securities said, "For now investors were on the familiar ground as the Nifty was merely recouping lost ground. From here on they will have to take a leap of faith and climb walls of worry. We have a base case target of 12,400 for the Nifty this year and a bull case of 13,700."
Standing in sync with the HDFC Securities views Prakash Pandey, Head of Research at Fairwealth Securities said, "In March 2019, FIIs have invested around Rs 32,000 crore which is a record as such a volume of FII had arrived in the Indian equity markets in the way back 2007. This is happening due to the rupee gaining its ground against the dollar in the Forex market and most importantly the majority of the Opinion Polls are suggesting Narendra Modi led NDA Government at Centre coming back to power post-Lok Sabha Polls." Pandey went on to add that the RBI is going to cut Repo Rates by 25-50 bps in coming days that would help rupee to further scale against the US dollar as the crude oil has already corrected to the tune of near 8-9 per cent.
"By mid-2019 rupee may touch the level of 65-66/dollar that would further fuel the investor's sentiments towards the positive bias into the markets. In such a scenario 800-1000 points rally at the Nifty index won't be surprising because both domestic and global indicators are giving positive signals for the Indian markets," said Prakash Pandey of Fairwealth Securities.