Indices ended at record-high, where Sensex, Nifty will be at by year-end?
BSE Sensex ended at 32,037.38, up 232.56 points or 0.73%, while NSE Nifty 9,891.70, up 75.60 points or 0.77%.
Markets on Thursday closed at record-high for the fourth consecutive day. BSE Sensex ended at 32,037.38, up 232.56 points or 0.73%, while NSE Nifty 9,891.70, up 75.60 points or 0.77%.
The credits for the touching new high could be given to the hopes for policy rate cut by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its next bi-monthly policy scheduled for next month on back of sharp drop in inflation.
India`s annual consumer price inflation eased to a lower-than-expected 1.54 percent in June, the lowest since a new index was adopted in 2012, from 2.18 percent in May. With this, the investors and experts expect RBI to consider rate cut next month.
Motilal Oswal in its research report said, "Market expectation is that the RBI may cut interest rate in the next policy meeting. Moreover, strong DIIs and FIIs flow and short covering lifted market. FMCG, Capital Goods, Banking and Metal stocks witnessed smart rally."
Now, when the markets are bullish, the question is what next?
Till now in 2017, Sensex has given returns of 20.32%. On January 2, the benchmark was trading at 26,595.45 as against today's close at 32,037.38.
While, Nifty has given return of 21% in 2017 till now. On January 2, the benchmark was trading at 8,179.50 as against today's close at 9,891.70.
We want you to remember two instances. First on May 11, when Nifty had touched 9,400-level for the first time. Second on June 7, when Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley India said Nifty can triple in the next five years to hit 30,000-mark.
Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley India believes that NSE Nifty touching 30,000-mark is possible on the back of recovery in consumption, real wages, rise in exports, among others.
However, these levels are still "ambitious".
In May, when Nifty had crossed 9,400-mart, analysts believed that it can cross 10,000-level by year end. Pankaj Karde, President & Head - Institutional Sales and Trading, Systematix, said, "India has seen a significant rally, with all institutional investors getting positive. We believe that India is poised to see Nifty at 10000 by year end."
However, since then or its been just two months and Nifty is already flirting with 9,900-mark. Which means it may surpass 10,000-mark before year end.
With the revision in numbers, we asked analysts where do they see Nifty and Sensex at by the end of 2017.
Milan Vaishnav, Consultant Technical Analyst, Equity Research, said "We see the NIFTY around 10,200-10,800 zone by year end. The breakout happening from 8900-8950 levels from a inverse head and shoulder formation on the Weekly Chart remain in force. The price targets arising out of this breakout stands around 10,500. Also, if we examine a 20-YR Monthly Chart of NIFTY, the Markets have broken out of a large ascending triangle which spanned over 4 years. Measuring implications on the Monthly Chart too put the NIFTY around 10,500.
Given these readings, we see NIFTY in the range of 10,200 to 10,800 zone by year-end."
Having similar views, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said, "We see a fair chance of Nifty and Sensex seeing 10300 and 33000 respectively by year end. Expectations of lower interest rates, in the backdrop of good monsoon and record low inflation. And expectation of better corporate results, from the single market that GST is aiming at. This should ensure that onging stream of steady investment flow into mutual funds should continue, keeping markets buoyant."
However, having totally opposite view, Amit Goenka, Analyst at multibaggerstocks.co.in said, "I expect nifty to be between 8000-8500 before the end of the current financial year. A major correction has been due for a long time. And, Sensex to be back at 25000-26000 mark."
Motilal Oswal said, "Nifty index continued its up move with the formation of higher lows for nine consecutive session and registered a fresh life time high of 9897 levels. It opened gap up and made a Bullish candle on the daily chart. Now it has to continue to hold 9850 zone to witness an up move towards 9950-10000 zones while on the downside supports are seen at 9820 then 9750 mark."
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