India to drive 6% of global trade growth, securing third place worldwide behind US and China: Report

The latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025 anticipates that in five years, India will retain its third-place rank on the scale dimension as well as jump 15 spots to the 17th position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2 per cent to 7.2 per cent.

The report highlighted that India was only the 13th largest participant in international trade in 2024, but its trade volume grew at a 5.2 per cent compound annual rate from 2019 to 2024, while global trade grew at only a 2.0per cent rate.

"India's rapid trade growth reflected both its swift macroeconomic growth and its increasing participation in international trade," the report added.

"The Trade Atlas underlines India's rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the east and west. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy's general volatility," said R S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express.

Interestingly, the report says that while China is often viewed as a more trade-oriented economy than India, "India's goods trade-to-GDP ratio was almost as high as China's in 2023, and India's trade intensity exceeded China's when considering trade in both goods and services."

Backing its projections, the report added that the high expectations for India's future trade growth are reinforced by large new commitments by foreign companies to invest in India's manufacturing sector.

In 2023, India ranked second worldwide (after the U.S.) as a destination for announced greenfield foreign direct investment, and manufacturing has become the most prominent business function for this investment in India, the report mentions.

The report highlights that emerging Asian economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines including India are expected to see especially strong growth. The South Asia as well as Southeast Asia regions are also set to outperform other regions in terms of trade growth, the report added.

"With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market," said Ken Lee, CEO - Asia Pacific, DHL Express.