India likely to see below-normal monsoon in 2026 amid El Nino concerns: Skymet

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has released its first monsoon outlook for 2026, projecting that India may receive below-normal rainfall during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.

Skymet releases first monsoon forecast for 2026

According to the forecast, the overall monsoon is likely to be impacted by a strengthening El Nino, which typically suppresses rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. This development raises concerns for agriculture and water availability, especially in rain-dependent regions.

Regional rainfall distribution outlook 2026

Region-wise, Skymet expects eastern and northeastern parts of the country to receive above-normal rainfall. In contrast, the regions of north India, west India, and central India will likely experience below-normal rainfall over the region.

Month-wise rainfall forecast 2026

The agency also provided a month-wise rainfall projection, indicating variability across the monsoon period. Rainfall in June is expected to be slightly above normal at 101 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). However, the trend will start decreasing after the first month, with a 95 per cent share of LPA in July. In August and September, the amount will likely decrease even further, with percentages of 92 and 89 LPA, respectively.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is the warming phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a natural climate phenomenon that happens in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean.

During El Nino, there is an abnormal amount of heat from the ocean surface that is present in the central and eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean around the western coast of South America.

During normal times, cold and nutritious water tends to come to the ocean surface due to the process called upwelling, but when El Nino is happening, this process is reduced or becomes nonexistent.

It usually recurs after every 2 to 7 years and lasts for more than 9 months.

How does El Nino affect Indian agriculture?

The Indian agriculture industry is directly influenced by the monsoons, and its water supply and produce depends on weather conditions during that period. The climate patterns during the two types of ENSO influence these factors.

For instance, during El Nino periods, the monsoon in India brings relatively poor rainfall conditions. Consequently, soil moisture and, therefore, water supply for irrigation will be insufficient, and there may be reduced agricultural production, leading to drought conditions.

Such crops as groundnut, maize, guar, castor, moong, and tur are likely to be adversely affected.

On the contrary, when the other phase-La Niña-occurs, India benefits from increased rainfall. Although this will increase produce in agriculture, heavy rains can also cause flooding in various areas. Overall, changes in ENSO influence the Indian agriculture sector directly.