IMD forecasts above-average monsoon rains in 2025, pegs precipitation at 105% of LPA—Highlights

IMD Monsoon Rainfall Forecast News: In a much-anticipated forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted above-average monsoon rainfall this year. The national weather office said it predicts monsoon precipitation at a minimum of 105 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).  

According to the India Meteorological Department, there is a strong probability of 59 per cent that the South West monsoon seasonal rainfall will likely be in the above-normal or higher ranges. 

The weather forecaster defines rainfall in the range of 105-110 per cent of the long-period average as "above-average".    

The IMD detailed its five-category probability forecast for the seasonal rainfall—typically expected from June to September—as follows:

Positive conditions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall: IMD

The IMD noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may continue during the upcoming monsoon season. Positive IOD conditions are normally favourable for the summer monsoon fainfall in the country.

Why do the IMD monsoon forecasts matter?

A bountiful but normal monsoon rains are crucial for the agriculture-focused domestic economy, as growers in several regions across the country still rely heaviliy on precipitation for irrigation.  

IMD said this about the El Nino weather pattern... 

The weather office also forecast neutral El Nino conditions during the monsoon this year.

What is El Nino and how does it impact weather across the world? El Nino is a weather phenomenon that plays a vital role in the South West monsoon in the Indian subcontinent. El Nino conditions translate to rising sea surface temperatures in several parts of the Pacific that tend to disrupt normal weather patterns in many parts of the world.

The occurence of El Nino-like situation often leads to conditions like droughts, floods and changes in temperature and precipitation. 

Since 2021, the IMD follows the following scheme of its long-range forecasts: