Consumer goods firms likely to see strong growth
Rural demand to accelerate in the coming quarters, as the central government is likely to focus on job creation and rural infrastructure before general elections
Most companies are likely to report bumper numbers owing to favourable base, as the impact of goods and services tax (GST) implementation and note ban wanes.
Consumer companies with high wholesale and rural exposure (Dabur, Emami and Colgate) and discretionary portfolio (GSK Consumer, Jubilant Foodworks) are likely to see the strongest bounce back, as they were most the impacted by demonetisation, PhillipCapital, an equity research firm, said.
"We expect all companies (ex‐ITC) to see high single‐digit to low‐teen volume growth across categories. For the next three quarters (till 2QFY19), we suggest investors to look at EBITDA/net income growth (yoy) and avoid looking at topline growth, as it may not reflect the correct picture due to accounting changes. In Q3FY18, we expect the EBITDA/PAT of FMCG universe (ex ITC) to grow 23% yoy each and EBITDA/PAT for the entire consumer coverage universe to grow by 17%/16% yoy."
Rural demand remained healthy in 3Q. In fact, for some companies it outpaced urban demand. "We expect a pickup in rural demand to accelerate in coming quarters, as the central government is likely to focus on job creation and rural infrastructure before general elections (scheduled to be held in 1QFY20)."
"We believe International business (particularly MENA region) for mid‐cap companies will recover due to a favourable base and surge in crude oil prices," the report said.
Top picks:
The research firm is bullish on Jubilant, Titan, Colgate, GSK consumer and Nestle on strong growth visibility and earnings upgrade possibility.
"We believe consumer companies might not react much despite robust numbers due to: (1) rich valuations and (2) investors finding it difficult to decipher
underlying demand trends," said the report.
