Bihar Elections 2025: What are exit polls? How accurate are predictions?

Bihar Elections Exit Polls 2025: As voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly Elections across 122 constituencies concluded on Tuesday, November 11, with a voter turnout of 67.14 per cent, according to the Election Commission, all eyes shifted to exit poll projections that pointed to an early lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The projections for the 243-member assembly were released after 6:30 pm, once polling officially ended. The ECI had barred the publication of exit poll data between 7 am on November 6 and 6:30 pm on November 11.

Exit poll findings this year are based on a sample size of 66,087 voters, collected through random sampling and CATI (computer-assisted telephonic interviewing) methods. The data carries a 3 per cent margin of error. Most agencies forecast the sitting state Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led NDA's winning 130 to 160 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure 70 to 100 seats. Jan Suraj, led by Prashant Kishor, is expected to take zero to five seats.

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On the final day of voting, Bihar recorded a strong turnout of 67.14 per cent in the second phase, as per ECI. Kishanganj logged the highest turnout at 76.26 per cent, followed by Katihar (75.23 per cent) and Purnia (73.79 per cent).

Also Read: Bihar Elections 2025: What are exit polls? How accurate are predictions?

What are exit polls?

Exit polls consist of surveys which are carried out with voters at once after they have left the polling stations. These differ from pre-poll surveys in that the former measures voters' actual choices on election day, while the latter measures only their intentions.

Pollsters plant their trained personnel among a representative group of sites, which are a mix of rural and urban, taking into consideration caste, community, gender and geographical diversity. Each voter is then given an anonymous questionnaire to fill out or to respond using handheld devices. Agencies do not take names or voter IDs; instead, they just keep the record of the vote choice, gender, age group and social category for the trends in voting to be analysed.

Subsequently, the data is run through statistical models to spotlight patterns and possible biases. The sample size varies from a few thousand to several lakh respondents, as each agency has its own.

Also Read: Bihar Election Exit Polls Result 2025: Nitish poised for comeback with NDA sweep; Tejashwi, Mahagathbandhan face setback

How accurate are exit polls?

Even though exit polls give an early guess of the public mood of the voters, they are not totally reliable. The precision of exit polls is determined particularly by the sample quality, the selection of the polling places, and the readiness of the voters to disclose their choices.

Bihar has been a place where exit polls often missed the mark. In 2020, the majority of agencies incorrectly forecast the Mahagathbandhan's victory. And in 2015, the pollsters went wrong again while interpreting the power of the JD(U)-RJD coalition. Voters who prefer to keep their choices secret, change their voting due to regional reasons, or make last-minute decisions are some of the factors that often give rise to the difference between the projections and actual results.

Despite this, exit polls still point out the broad trends quite accurately, especially in large states with diverse voting patterns.

Also Read: Bihar Elections 2025: Phase 1 records 64.66% voter turnout, highest ever across 121 constituencies

Which agencies conduct exit polls?

Major agencies releasing Bihar exit poll projections include:

• Axis My India
• C-Voter
• Today’s Chanakya
• Jan Ki Baat
• IPSOS

Where to watch exit poll results

Exit poll results are aired on television news channels, posted on agencies’ websites and streamed across social media platforms and YouTube. Official vote counting will be conducted on November 14, with final results expected later that day.