Bihar Election Exit Polls Result 2025: Nitish poised for comeback with NDA sweep; Tejashwi, Mahagathbandhan face setback

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is set for a sweeping victory in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, according to most exit polls released on Tuesday, November 10, evening. The surveys indicate that the ruling coalition is heading towards a two-thirds majority in the 243-member House, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), appears to be well behind. The Bihar poll results are expected to be declared later this week with the counting of votes set to begin early on November 14.

Most exit polls predict an NDA comeback in Bihar. The projections come on the heels of a record voter turnout - the highest ever in the state’s electoral history. Polling concluded earlier today in the second and final phase across 122 constituencies spanning 20 districts, sealing the fate of 1,302 candidates.

Bihar Election Exit Poll 2025: Nitish Kumar set for return, Tejashwi trails

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According to the IANS–Matrize Exit Poll, the NDA is projected to win between 147 and 167 seats, securing 48 per cent vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to garner 37 per cent, translating into 70 to 90 seats.

The survey also points to a strong resurgence of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), which may emerge as the single largest party. The BJP is predicted to hold steady with 65 to 73 seats and around 19 per cent vote share, similar to its 2020 performance.

For the RJD, the IANS–Matrize poll predicts 53 to 58 seats with a 21 per cent vote share, while the Congress could end up with only 10 to 12 seats, reflecting a 7 per cent vote share.

Among smaller NDA allies, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha are projected to collectively add 12 to 16 seats, with a combined vote share of 9 per cent.

Bihar Elections 2025: Mahagathbandhan lags far behind

For the Mahagathbandhan, the combined strength of its smaller allies - CPI(ML), CPI, CPI(M) and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is unlikely to change the outcome. Together, these parties are estimated to secure 9 per cent vote share and 10 to 18 seats.

The projections suggest that despite an energetic campaign centred around unemployment and governance, the RJD–Congress alliance may fall short of expectations, echoing the setback it faced in 2020.

Jan Suraaj and AIMIM make modest gains

Political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is expected to secure around 5 per cent vote share and may win 0 to 2 seats in its maiden contest.

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi, is projected to gain around 1 per cent vote share, likely translating into 2 to 3 seats, mainly in the Seemanchal region. Other smaller parties and independents together may account for 9 per cent vote share and up to five seats.

The IANS–Matrize poll, conducted among 66,000 respondents across Bihar, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent, with data collected till the close of the second phase of polling.

Bihar Election: What do other exit polls suggest?

Several other surveys have mirrored the IANS–Matrize forecast, projecting a comfortable win for the NDA.

The Times of India–ET Exit Poll predicts 147 to 167 seats for the NDA and 70 to 90 for the Mahagathbandhan. People Pulse forecasts 133 to 159 seats for the ruling alliance, while Dainik Bhaskar projects 145 to 160. The JVC Polls estimate 135 to 150 seats for the NDA and 88 to 103 for the Opposition, while People’s Insight places the NDA at 133 to 148 seats.

The consensus across exit polls is clear - the NDA is expected to cross the majority mark of 122 seats comfortably, consolidating its position in Bihar under Nitish Kumar’s leadership.

Bihar Polls 2025: Record voter turnout

According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Bihar registered 67.14 per cent turnout in the second phase, up from 65.08 per cent in the first phase. Kishanganj recorded the highest polling at 76.26 per cent, followed by Katihar (75.23 per cent) and Purnia (73.79 per cent), while Nawada saw the lowest turnout at 57.11 per cent.

The high turnout is being attributed to increased participation by women and first-time voters. Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai said the figures reflected “Bihar’s faith in the NDA’s governance,” adding that “people voted for a Viksit Bihar and a Viksit Bharat.”

He said, “The NDA government will be formed with more than two-thirds majority. The people of Bihar trust PM Modi, Nitish Kumar and the alliance that has worked for peace, development and prosperity over the past two decades.”'

Counting on November 14

With polling completed and exit polls pointing to a decisive NDA majority, all attention now shifts to November 14, when counting of votes will take place. If the results mirror the projections, it would mark another term for Nitish Kumar.