Sensex today: RIL investors lose 3% in a day; YES Bank, HUL top gainers; index rallies 190 points

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services

Market continued its winning streak led by positive global cues and RBIs ease in rules for FPIs to invest in bonds. PSU banks outperformed in expectation of stability in yield while volume growth in bond market will provide relief to rupee. Quarter results so far have been better, contrarian bet IT industry is gaining investors’ attention owing to improving macros and strengthening dollar.

Markets at Close

The Sensex ended at 35,160, up 190.66 points, while the broader Nifty50 closed at 10,739, up 47.05 points. In the borader market, the BSE Midcap gained 0.6 per cent, while BSE Smallcap added nearly 1 per cent each. Market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned positive.

Sensex Heatmap at Close 

Source: BSE

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) has reported a healthy performance in 4QFY18. Its standalone PAT grew by 15.1% YoY and 6.7% QoQ to Rs11.2 bn. Kotak Mahindra Bank has undoubtedly proven its competitive edge over its private sector peers with higher fee income, superior asset quality management and effective management of financial business arms.

It continues to witness moderation in SMA-2 balance, which clearly suggests a stable trend on asset quality front. Looking ahead, we expect strong traction in earnings to continue owing to robust growth in loan book, moderate credit cost, and healthy margins.

Introducing our estimates for FY20E, we expect KMB’s earnings to witness strong growth over FY18-20. We maintain our positive stance on the bank and will come out with detail update after analyst call.

The improved financials is aided by healthy growth in customer assets (25.1% YoY and 7.5% QoQ), best-in-class NIMs (4.35%) and strong growth in core fee income (33.4% YoY and 21.8% QoQ). Notably, KMB has started getting benefitted from full integration of erstwhile ING Vysya Bank, especially in post demonetization period.

By Asutosh Kumar Mishra : Senior Research Analyst, Reliance Securities

Buzzing Stock

Kotak Mahindra Bank gained 2 per cent after the private lender reported a decline in its gross NPA and net NPA at Rs 3 825.38 crore and Rs 1 665.05 crore, respectively. The company's net profit came in at Rs 1124.05 crore.

Prabhudas Lilladher on Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki continues to gain market share (500bp to 50 per cent over FY15‐FY18) and further intensifying its hold on the domestic PV market with successful product launches, underlines MSILs strong competitive position. Despite managements stated production constraints, we expect MSIL not to miss out on demand due to supply constraints and overproduce from its stated production capacity (as achieved historically) on back of operational efficiency.  We marginally increase our volume estimate by 2%/1.4% for FY19/20 . However, we slightly cut our EBITDA margins by ~70bps for FY19/20 to factor in commodity costs pressure and ramp up related costs for the Gujarat plant.  We value the stock at 26x Mar20e and arrive at a target price of Rs10,705 and maintain MSIL as“Buy”.

Fast Money: 20 best calls for Intra-day @ April 30, 2018

Rupee Preview: As April throws established beliefs in dustbin, what exporters should do

The month of April has thrown a lot of established beliefs into the dustbin as it has brought back the fear of volatility in currency markets into focus. In fact, this is counter-intuitive because the US leadership has extended an olive branch to recalcitrant North Korea leadership. News reports suggest that there is a real possibility of US President having a summit meeting with the North Korean leader. On the other side, we also witnessed sense coming back into counterproductive trade sanctions between the US and China.

Sharekhan on Reliance Industries

Robust margin outlook for core businesses of refining and petchem; Telecom financials to improve with growth in revenue market share: We expect RIL to benefit from higher refining margin as the economics of its petcoke gasification project would improve given the recent surge in oil price. We highlight here that every $10/bbl increase in crude oil price could add $0.4/bbl to the GRM of RIL as a result of cost savings from the petcoke gasification plant. Moreover, recently commissioned downstream projects especially Refinery Off Gas Cracker (RoGC) have stablised and expected to benefit from the likely firming-up of propylene and MEG margins. We expect improvement in the financials of the telecom business, given our assumption of growth in RJIO’s revenue market share and improvement in margins on account of operating leverage.

Reliance Industries share price slips 3% post Q4 FY18 results; here is what analysts said

Reliance Industries share price slipped over 3 per cent on Monday as RIL's gross refining margin (GRM) came in below expectations, while its telecom unit Reliance Jio's average revenue per user (ARPU) continued to fall amid price war among telecom companies. RJio's ARPU fell further to Rs 137 in Q4 FY18. However, RJio saw profits rise to Rs 510 crore, up 1.2 per cent over third quarter earnings.

Reacting to the numbers, Reliance Industries share price slipped 3.38 per cent to Rs 961.10 on the BSE. Brokerages, however, remained positive on the long-term prospects of the stock. The stock had hit its lifetime high of Rs 1,010.70 in Friday's trade ahead of Q4 results. 

Market Breadth 

Market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned positive. On the BSE, 1,314 stocks rallied, 766 stocks declined, while 166 stocks remained unchanged. 

Nifty outlook by Angel Broking 

Now, the recent hurdle of 10640 has been crossed on a closing basis and thus, we may see extension of this move towards 10750 – 10800 in coming days. On the lower side, the immediate base seems to have shifted higher towards 10640 – 10600 (earlier hurdle becomes support) from 10495. Hence, going ahead, traders should trade with a stock specific positive bias and look to lighten up positions around 10750 – 10800. At this juncture, we are a bit unsure whether market has enough strength to surpass 10800 or not. Hence, one need to keep booking timely profits and should rather shift stop losses higher at 10640 – 10600. 

IMD Monsoon forecast: Will it lift you stock market fortunes?

Agri, consumption and rural-related stocks saw up to 30% surge after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) last month forecast that the monsoon would be normal this year. Analysts fell heels over head recommending stocks that would shine this year after IMD prediction. However, the party on the bourses may be too early. There has been little correlation between the market performance and bountiful rains, going by the Sensex movement in the last ten years.

Broader Market

In the borader market, the BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap indices added 0.5 per cent each.

Markets at Open 

At 9:27 am, the Sensex was trading at 35,184, up 214.82 points, while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,754, up 62.10 points.

Good Morning!

Welcome to Zee Business market liveblog.

Markets Last Week

Last week, healthy Q4 earnings lifted the Sensex, Nifty to their highest closing levels in over three months.

On a weekly basis, the Sensex rose by 554.12 points or 1.61 per cent to close at 34,969.70 points. Similarly, the wider Nifty50 closed trade at 10,692.30 points, up 128.25 points or 1.21 per cent from its previous week's close.

Domestic institutional investors supported the market as they remained net buyers, whereas FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) have been net sellers since April 13. The provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that during last week, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 3,060.41 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 2,649.61 crore.

The Indian equity indices will remain closed on Tuesday to observe Maharashtra Day.

• Buying continued in textile stocks 
• Stock on a buying spree for last two weeks