Sugar output to rise 16% in 2025–26; Centre clears 15 lakh tonne exports

India’s sugar production is expected to post a strong recovery in the 2025–26 sugar season, rising about 16 per cent to 343.5 lakh tonnes from 296.1 lakh tonnes in 2024–25. The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), in its first advance estimates released this week, attributed the growth to favourable rainfall, improved cane yields and steady acreage across the country’s key sugar-growing regions.

The estimates were finalised after reviewing post-monsoon satellite imagery captured in October and field reports presented at ISMA’s Executive Committee meeting on November 4. The association said that a combination of well-distributed monsoon rainfall, adequate reservoir storage and ongoing cane development initiatives had created “good to very good” crop conditions nationwide.

Higher acreage and healthier crop outlook

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The total sugarcane acreage for the 2025–26 season has been assessed at 57.35 lakh hectares, marginally higher than 57.11 lakh hectares last year, representing a 0.4 per cent increase. The rise, though small, reflects farmers’ confidence in sugarcane, encouraged by better irrigation availability and state-level support for cane development.

According to ISMA, rainfall has been ample across major cane belts, with reservoirs in key producing states maintaining sufficient levels to meet crop requirements through the crushing season. These conditions, along with improved varietal selection, have helped sustain robust cane growth.

Maharashtra to lead the surge in production

Maharashtra, the country’s largest sugar producer, is expected to record the sharpest increase in output. Production in the state is projected at 130 lakh tonnes for 2025–26, up from 93.51 lakh tonnes last year - an increase of nearly 39 per cent.

The state’s cane area has grown to 14.71 lakh hectares from 13.82 lakh hectares, aided by strong monsoon performance and full reservoirs. ISMA said that a higher proportion of plant cane and better yields will support the surge. “Healthy rainfall across the western belt and sustained irrigation support have led to an excellent crop outlook,” the association noted.

Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh show steady growth

In Karnataka, sugarcane acreage has expanded by around 6 per cent to 6.8 lakh hectares. Sugar output is expected to reach 63.5 lakh tonnes, compared with 54.89 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Favourable rainfall and improved recovery rates are expected to drive the increase.

Uttar Pradesh, another leading producer, is projected to produce 103.2 lakh tonnes of sugar this season, slightly higher than 101.01 lakh tonnes last year. Although the cane area in the state has declined from 23.3 lakh hectares to 22.57 lakh hectares, the overall crop health has improved due to better disease management and the introduction of high-yielding varieties.

ISMA said that timely field interventions and varietal replacement programmes have helped control red rot and other diseases, ensuring a healthy standing crop this season.

Ethanol diversion and strong supply position

The diversion of sugar towards ethanol production in 2025–26 is expected at 34 lakh tonnes, slightly lower than 35.01 lakh tonnes in the 2024–25 season. After accounting for this diversion, the net sugar production is estimated at 309.5 lakh tonnes, compared with 261.08 lakh tonnes last year.

ISMA said the country’s sugar balance remains comfortable, ensuring ample supply for both domestic needs and export commitments. India’s ethanol programme continues to support the government’s broader energy diversification goals, even as the sugar industry maintains healthy reserves.

Government clears exports, removes duty on molasses

With sufficient domestic availability, the Central government has permitted exports of up to 15 lakh tonnes of sugar for the 2025–26 season. The government has also removed the 50 per cent export duty on molasses to facilitate trade and improve liquidity in the sugar sector.

Union Minister for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Pralhad Joshi, confirmed the decision in a letter dated November 7 to Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. The move, he said, would help stabilise the market and provide relief to sugarcane farmers.

The policy decision follows ISMA’s estimate indicating that India could comfortably export up to 20 lakh tonnes this season without affecting domestic availability.