Rupee hits record low against US dollar, crosses 90 mark — who gains, who loses?

The rupee slipped to a historic low on Wednesday, December 3, breaching the Rs 90-per-dollar level for the first time, as persistent foreign fund outflows, firm crude prices and uncertainty surrounding the proposed India–US trade agreement weighed on sentiment. The fall marks a new phase of currency pressure for India, with the rupee now among Asia’s weakest performers in 2025, having lost nearly 4-5 per cent so far this year.

Despite the psychological impact of the breach, currency traders described Wednesday’s movement as “orderly”, pointing out that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened selectively to smooth volatility rather than defend any specific level. The central bank’s upcoming policy announcement on Friday is now expected to attract heightened scrutiny, with markets looking for signals on whether the RBI intends stronger action to stabilise the currency.

Export-led sectors emerge as early beneficiaries

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Analysts said the sharp depreciation could turn favourable for sectors with large export exposure, especially at a time when global demand for some categories is showing early signs of revival.
Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, said the weaker rupee is already improving competitiveness for IT services, textiles, pharma, engineering, metals, auto components and shrimp exporters.

“These sectors typically see better realisations when the rupee weakens. For companies with stable order books and dollar-linked contracts, this could cushion margins over the coming quarters,” he noted.

The broader export basket, especially labour-intensive industries like agro-exports and textiles, may also see improved pricing power if the currency remains at current levels.

Import-heavy industries feel the squeeze

But the flip side is equally sharp. A weaker rupee inflates India’s import bill — a concern at a time when metal and bullion prices are already elevated globally. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said the pressure is most visible in sectors dependent on imported raw materials.

“FMCG, plastic polymers, oil and gas, electronics and machinery imports will face higher landed costs. The combination of a weak rupee and firm global commodity prices has created a double hit,” he said.

India’s rising gold and silver imports in recent months have added further strain, worsening the overall trade deficit.

Importer demand keeps the dollar firm

Experts said sustained dollar buying by Indian companies — particularly refiners, metal producers and electronics manufacturers — is absorbing market liquidity and keeping the rupee under pressure.

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency at Kotak Securities, said importer demand has remained strong despite the currency’s fall. “The price action has remained fairly controlled. The RBI is stepping in only to smooth volatility, not to defend any line in the sand,” he explained.

He also flagged that the rupee is now deeply oversold in technical terms, and a move back above Rs 89.80 would be essential for any meaningful recovery.

Government plays down concerns, calls the fall ‘manageable’

India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran dismissed fears of macroeconomic stress, saying the rupee’s fall past 90 had not created inflationary pressures or disrupted export demand. “I am not losing my sleep over it,” he said on the sidelines of a CII summit. “Right now it’s not hurting our exports or inflation. The currency’s movement is still within manageable limits.”
Officials said India’s strong forex reserves and controlled inflation provide enough comfort for now, though global uncertainty remains a risk.

What to expect next?

Currency traders are now watching Friday’s RBI policy closely. While no emergency intervention is expected, markets are looking for the central bank’s stance on liquidity, inflation risks and external pressures. At the time of publishing, the rupee was trading at Rs 90.21 per US dollar, after briefly touching an intraday low in early trade.

(With ANI inputs)