A rate cut on the cards? Sanjay Malhotra to announce decision at 10 am—10 things to know

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is set to announce a key rate decision in a press briefing slated to begin at 10 am on Wednesday, October 1. Most economists expect no change in the repo rate -- the key interest rate at which the RBI lends short-term funds to commercial banks -- in this review, just like it did in August.

Two-thirds of the economists polled by Zee Business expect a status quo while maintaining a 'neutral' policy stance in the October review.

The RBI's top brass will engage in a customary, post-policy interaction with the media at noon.

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Here are 10 things to know before the RBI chief reveals what's in store for the economy in the form of the October policy statement:

• Growth in the world's fourth-largest economy picked up to a five-quarter high of 7.8 per cent in the first three months of FY26, beating economists' expectations as well as the central bank's annual forecast.
• That data cemented the country's position as the fastest-growing major economy across the globe.
• Some economists say that the RBI may choose to assess the impact of the GST 2.0 reform on domestic demand and its consequent effect on economic growth, the additional 25 per cent US duty hike on Indian goods (taking the total duty to 50 per cent) along with a 100 per cent levy on branded and patented pharmaceutical imports, and the pass-through of existing rate cuts on borrowing costs at least until the December review for further policy action.

• The RBI has already cut the repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in three tranches since February.
• This marks the steepest reduction in the post-pandemic era, as the RBI's rate-deciding panel executed a significant policy easing cycle aimed at aiding economic growth amid subdued inflation.
• One of the main reasons behind the MPC's possible decision to delay a rate cut could be consumer inflation worsening to 2.07 per cent in August from an eight-month low of 1.55 per cent the previous month. In line with the RBI's projections, the latest inflation reading is within the RBI's medium-term target range of 2-6 per cent -- or 200 basis points within 4.0 per cent.
• The RBI tracks CPI data primarily to formulate its monetary policy. Its focus remains on containing inflation while ensuring robust economic growth, in sharp contrast to a temporary phase during COVID-19 when it prioritised growth over curbing inflation.
• In the August review, the RBI chief-led MPC revised its inflation projection to 3.1 per cent from 3.7 per cent, while maintaining its GDP growth forecast at 6.5 per cent for FY26.
• While all of the economists who participated in the Zee Business poll expect the RBI to tweak its inflation forecast, two-thirds of them expect a change in its GDP growth projection in the October review.
• Its 'neutral' stance allows it to act in either direction in achieving its goals -- a switch it made from 'accommodative' in June.