RBI MPC April 7-9 Review: Will Sanjay Malhotra announce a rate cut amidst Trump tariff turmoil? 3 things to track

RBI April 2025 Monetary Policy Preview: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is scheduled to announce a key rate decision at 10 am on Wednesday, April 9, after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concludes three-day deliberations that began on Monday. All eyes will be on the RBI’s decision on the repo rate—or the key rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to commercial banks. The MPC review comes at a time when many economists are concerned whether fresh escalations in the ongoing trade war will stall GDP growth and delay reductions in COVID-era interest rates. Read on to learn about what you can expect from the April 7-9 MPC review meeting.

 April 9, 2025:
Monetary Policy Statement by RBI Governor @GovSMalhotra at 10:00 AM
 Live stream: (https://t.co/E2rVdkWJsS)
 Post-policy press conference at 12:00 PM: (https://t.co/ZT7KuRLWzc)#RBIPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #RBI #MPC #RBIToday pic.twitter.com/lEHaxwjPJN

— ReserveBankOfIndia (@RBI) April 8, 2025

RBI MPC Preview: What to expect from the upcoming monetary policy review?

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All participants in a poll of economists by Zee Business expect the RBI to announce a 25-basis-point reduction in the key lending rate. They expect the rate cuts to amount to 50 basis points in FY26, which began on April 1.

RBI MPC Review April 2025 | Can you expect a change in stance?

Three out of every four economists who participated in the poll expect the MPC to switch to an “accommodative” stance of policy, whereas others expect no change.

Currently, the MPC maintains a ‘neutral’ stance, which enables it to act on either side while adjusting policy rates on the basis of prevailing economic conditions.

Are inflation concerns easing?

None of the polled economists offered a clear view in this regard.

Will RBI change GDP projections in April review?

The economists expect no change in the RBI’s existing GDP projections.

Currently, the RBI projects growth at 6.7 per cent in FY26, with 6.7 per cent in Q1, 7.0 per cent in Q2, 6.5 per cent in Q3, and 6.5 per cent in Q4, citing “evenly balanced” risks.

RBI inflation projections

It forecasts consumer inflation—or the rate of increase in the prices consumers pay for select goods and services—to average at 4.2 per cent in FY26, with 4.5 per cent in Q1, 4.0 per cent in Q2, 3.8 per cent in Q3, and 4.2 per cent in Q4.

Three things to watch out for in April MPC review

According to Zee Business research, three things will be tracked closely in the April 9 policy statement:

• Cash position
• RBI’s views on the impact of tariffs on the Indian economy
• GDP and inflation projections in light of trade war jitters

What happened in February MPC review

The MPC—which comprises six RBI members and external members (three each)—decided unanimously to cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25 per cent and to keep its stance at ‘neutral’ while remaining “unambiguously focussed on a durable alignment of inflation with the target, while supporting growth”.

RBI February Policy Minutes: A summary

Minutes of the last review of FY25, released in late February, showed that policymakers expect inflation to align with their medium-term goal of 4.0 per cent, creating room for addressing concerns on the growth front.

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