RBI MPC Meeting Outcome Due on 5 June: Will Reserve Bank of India keep interest rates unchanged?

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on Wednesday, June 3. The policy outcome will be announced on June 5, with market participants closely watching whether the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged amid rising inflation risks linked to the ongoing West Asia crisis.

The six-member MPC, chaired by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will assess the inflation outlook, economic growth prospects and financial stability conditions before deciding on policy rates.

In its April 2026 meeting, the RBI kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent. The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate remained at 5 per cent, while the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate was retained at 5.5 per cent. The central bank also maintained its neutral policy stance.

Policy decision on June 5

The bi-monthly MPC meeting is scheduled from June 3 to June 5. The policy announcement will be made at 10 am on Friday, followed by Governor Malhotra’s press conference at 12 pm.

The June policy review comes at a challenging time for policymakers. Escalating tensions in West Asia have pushed crude oil and gas prices higher, disrupted supply chains and added pressure on the Indian rupee. These developments have raised concerns over imported inflation and their potential impact on economic growth.

India imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements. The recent spike in global oil prices has increased input costs and could complicate the RBI’s inflation management efforts.

Zee Business poll signals status quo

According to a Zee Business poll, a majority of respondents expect the RBI to leave interest rates unchanged in the June policy meeting.

Around 80 per cent of participants expect the MPC to maintain status quo, while 20 per cent foresee a 25 basis point rate hike. No respondents expect a 50 basis point increase.

On the policy stance, 80 per cent expect the RBI to retain its neutral stance, while 20 per cent believe the commentary could turn hawkish. None of the respondents expect an accommodative stance.

Inflation and growth projections in focus

The survey also showed unanimous expectations that the RBI may raise its inflation forecast due to higher commodity prices and currency weakness.

At the same time, all respondents expect the central bank to lower its GDP growth projection, reflecting concerns over the impact of elevated fuel and fertiliser costs, geopolitical uncertainty and global economic headwinds.

Market participants will also closely watch whether the RBI announces any foreign exchange-related measures to support the rupee. Around 80 per cent of poll respondents expect some form of forex intervention or supportive measures, while 20 per cent remain uncertain.

Key commentary areas to watch

Apart from the rate decision, investors will focus on the RBI’s assessment of geopolitical risks, the impact of rupee depreciation and the balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation.

The central bank’s outlook on commodity prices, monsoon forecasts and the potential impact of global developments on India's economy will also be closely tracked.