RBI MPC Meet: What to expect in April review amid crude surge and weak rupee?

RBI MPC Meeting: The Reserve Bank of India has started its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday. The meeting will continue for three days. The rate decision will be announced on April 8.

Economists expect no change in policy rates. The benchmark repo rate is likely to remain at 5.25 per cent. This view comes amid rising global uncertainties.

The policy review is taking place at a crucial time. Global crude oil prices have surged sharply. Prices have crossed USD 100 per barrel. This comes after escalation of conflict in West Asia.

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Higher crude prices are a concern for India. They can increase imported inflation. This can put pressure on household budgets. It can also impact overall price stability.

At the same time, the Indian rupee has weakened. It is hovering above 93 against the US dollar. A weak rupee makes imports more expensive. This adds to inflation risks.

Zee Business poll shows clear consensus

A Zee Business poll of economists shows a strong consensus. All respondents expect the RBI to maintain status quo.

• 100 per cent expect no change in repo rate
• 0 per cent expect a 0.25 per cent hike
• 0 per cent expect a 0.50 per cent hike

There is also clarity on the policy stance.

• 100 per cent expect the stance to remain neutral
• 0 per cent expect accommodative stance
• 0 per cent expect hawkish stance

This shows that economists see no immediate shift in policy direction.

Inflation and growth projections may change

Economists expect changes in macro projections. Inflation outlook may be revised.

• 100 per cent expect an increase in inflation forecast
• 0 per cent expect no change
• 0 per cent are unsure

Growth projections may also be adjusted.

• 100 per cent expect a cut in GDP projection
• 0 per cent expect no change
• 0 per cent are unsure

Higher crude prices and rupee weakness are key reasons. These factors can push inflation higher. They can also slow down growth.

RBI may step up currency intervention

Currency movement is another key focus. The rupee has seen sharp weakness.

• 100 per cent of economists expect more RBI intervention
• 0 per cent do not expect intervention
• 0 per cent are unsure

The RBI may act to control volatility. It may try to stabilise the rupee. This is important for financial stability.

Key factors to watch in policy commentary

Markets will closely track the RBI’s statement. Several factors will be important.

• Any signal on future rate hikes
• Forward guidance on policy direction
• Liquidity management measures
• Impact of the West Asia conflict
• Outlook on rupee movement
• Updated inflation guidance

These cues will guide market expectations. Investors will watch every detail.

Previous policy decision

In the last MPC meeting, the RBI kept rates unchanged. The repo rate was held at 5.25 per cent.

The decision was announced on February 6, 2026. It was taken unanimously by the committee.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had explained the decision. He said the stance would remain neutral. The decision was based on evolving macroeconomic conditions.

The RBI had taken a balanced approach. It focused on both growth and inflation.

MPC schedule for FY27

The RBI has also shared the upcoming MPC calendar.

Second meeting: June 3–5, 2026
Third meeting: August 3–5, 2026
Fourth meeting: October 5–7, 2026
Fifth meeting: December 2–4, 2026
Sixth meeting: February 3–5, 2027