India's merchandise exports projected to rise 3.64% in Q4 FY25

India's merchandise exports are projected to rise to $124.8 billion in the fourth quarter of the current financial year (Q4 FY25) -- a 3.64 per cent increase compared to the same period last year (Q4 FY24).

According to estimates from the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), total merchandise exports are estimated to reach $446.5 billion this fiscal, a 2.2 per cent increase from FY24.

Non-oil exports are expected to see a sharper growth of 11.34 per cent to $109.3 billion, while exports excluding oil, gems, and jewellery are forecast to grow by 10.1 per cent to $98.5 billion.

Non-oil exports are projected at $382 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to touch $350 billion, according to the report.

"Positive growth in India's exports could be as a result of strong agricultural harvest, revival in manufacturing activity and improving demand prospects in trading partners," the Exim Bank said.

Despite challenges such as trade policy uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fragmentation, the positive momentum in exports is likely to continue into the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 FY26).

The latest projections, which indicate a steady recovery, are supported by strong manufacturing activity, resilient agricultural exports and improving global demand.
Meanwhile, India's trade deficit narrowed to $21.94 billion in December compared to the corresponding figure of $32.84 billion for November, as exports grew while imports declined on a month-to-month basis.

Merchandise exports in December increased to $38.01 billion compared to $32.11 billion in November, while imports declined to $59.95 billion from $64.95 billion in November.

However, on a year-on-year basis, the trade gap widened during December compared to $18.76 billion in December 2023. The merchandise exports declined by 1 per cent in December 2024 from $38.39 billion in the same month of the previous year while imports rose by 4.8 per cent from $57.15 billion in December 2023.