India's GDP Data Out! Q3 FY26 growth slows to 7.8% under new series; annual growth projection revised to 7.6%

A new series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates with base year 2022–23 has been released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). India’s GDP growth slowed sequentially to 7.8 per cent in the third quarter of FY26 from 8.4 per cent in the preceding quarter, but remained above market expectations.

The FY26 growth projection has been revised upward to 7.6 per cent from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, reflecting the reset of the country’s economic data under the new series.

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said India is on track to become the world's third-largest economy. "The Economic Survey's growth projection for FY27 has been revised upward to 7-7.4 per cent under the new GDP series," he said.

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Gross Value Added Trends

Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant prices reached Rs 294.40 lakh crore in FY26, while nominal GVA rose to Rs 313.61 lakh crore. Sector-wise growth in FY25 was 4.9 per cent in the primary sector, 8.0 per cent in the secondary sector, and 7.9 per cent in services. Growth in real GVA was mainly driven by manufacturing, mining and quarrying, construction, financial services, and real estate.

Income and Savings Indicators

Net National Income at current prices stood at Rs 271.44 lakh crore in FY25, while Gross National Disposable Income rose to Rs 324.52 lakh crore. Household savings accounted for 62.1 per cent of gross savings of Rs 111.13 lakh crore in FY25, while non-financial corporations contributed 28.9 per cent. Gross Capital Formation in FY25 was Rs 109.25 lakh crore.

Consumption Expenditure

Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices was Rs 179.71 lakh crore, while government final consumption expenditure stood at Rs 33.95 lakh crore. Per capita net national income at current prices increased to Rs 1,92,774 in FY25. Per capita private consumption expenditure rose to Rs 1,27,627.

Industrial Production and Energy Consumption

Year-on-year growth in key indicators for FY26 showed mixed trends across sectors. Cement production rose 11.2 per cent in Q3 after 8.0 per cent in Q1 and 7.3 per cent in Q2.

Finished steel consumption slowed to 3.9 per cent in Q3 from 8.8 per cent in Q2. Infrastructure and construction goods grew 10.7 per cent, while electricity showed a decline of 0.9 per cent. Natural gas consumption remained largely flat at 0.6 per cent in Q3.

Transport and Logistics

Vehicle sales picked up sharply, with commercial vehicles up 21.5 per cent, three-wheelers 14.0 per cent, and passenger transport vehicles 20.9 per cent. Cargo handled at major ports rose 13.2 per cent, while minor ports saw modest growth of 0.8 per cent.

Air passenger traffic and cargo increased 4.2 per cent domestically and 14.9 per cent internationally. Railway passenger kilometres grew 13.0 per cent, while goods transport vehicles registration jumped 24.1 per cent.

Manufacturing, Imports and Tax Collections

In manufacturing, computer and electronic products surged 19.4 per cent, other transport equipment 14.2 per cent, while electrical equipment slowed to 1.5 per cent. Imports of machinery and transport goods rose 21.8 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively.

Tax collections showed varied growth, with CGST up 5.1 per cent, Union Excise 13.1 per cent, and customs duty 54.9 per cent in Q3.

Stating that both numbers (Q3 and Q2) are healthier than expected, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar pointed out the moderation was expectedly driven by the agriculture and the non-manufacturing industrial sectors, including mining, electricity and construction segments. "Encouragingly, manufacturing GVA expanded by double digits for the fifth consecutive quarter in a row in Q3 FY2026, while services GVA growth also inched up to a seven-quarter high of 9.5 per cent from 9.3 per cent in the previous quarter," she said.

ICRA currently projects the GDP growth at a healthy 7.0 per cent in FY2027, amid favourable developments including the interim deal with the US with a lower tariff rate and improved prospects for domestic investment, aided by the robust hike in central capital spending included in the Budget, added the economist.

GoI's Receipts at Rs 27.08 Lakh Crore

The Government of India’s monthly accounts up to January 2026 have been consolidated and published. Total receipts stood at Rs 27,08,654 crore, or 79.5 per cent of the revised estimate for FY26, including Rs 20,94,218 crore in net tax revenue, Rs 5,57,307 crore in non-tax revenue, and Rs 57,129 crore in non-debt capital receipts. During this period, Rs 11,39,767 crore was transferred to state governments as their share of taxes, Rs 65,588 crore higher than the previous year.

Total expenditure by the government reached Rs 36,90,061 crore, or 74.3 per cent of the revised estimate, with Rs 28,47,780 crore spent on revenue account and Rs 8,42,281 crore on capital account. Of the total revenue expenditure, Rs 9,88,302 crore was for interest payments and Rs 3,54,861 crore for major subsidies.