Indian households expect continued easing of inflation over next year: RBI survey

Indian households are expecting a significant softening in inflation expectations for the next three months and one year, according to the latest Households' Inflation Expectations Survey of the Reserve Bank of India.

The Reserve Bank of India published the results of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households conducted in November 2025 on Friday. The survey was carried out between November 1-10, 2025, in 19 major cities, and a total of 6,061 responses were received.

What did the survey say?

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"Households' perception of the current median inflation declined significantly by 80 basis points (bps) to 6.6 per cent in comparison to the previous round. Alongside, their inflation expectations for the next three months and one year ahead also experienced notable softening by 50 bps and 70 bps to 7.6 per cent and 8.0 per cent respectively," the survey noted.

"For both short-term and one-year-ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating a rise in both general prices and inflation maintained its declining trend," RBI said.

Most of the households indicated a decline in prices and inflationary pressures in all product groups, like food products, non-food products, and cost of services, considering both periods, i.e., three months and one year ahead.

The RBI survey indicated that a smaller number of households expect price increases in the main sectors such as food, non-food, housing, household durables, and services.

The proportion of respondents anticipating an increase in food prices within the next three months dropped to 74.9 per cent in November, down from 79 per cent in September, while those expecting an increase in non-food products fell to 67.8 per cent, compared to 73.4 per cent in the previous round. Longer-term expectations also exhibit a similar trend.

Price increases one year ahead expectations also decreased, along with the general inflation expectations, which were at 83.6 per cent in November, down from 86.8 per cent in September.

The expectations for consumer durables showed the largest drop, with only 68 per cent of the respondents expecting price increases compared to over 78 per cent earlier in the year. Housing and services categories, though still high, also indicated weakening sentiments.

Moreover, the survey presented demographic information that showed a general decrease in inflation expectations across different age groups, occupations, and genders.

The median point of current inflation perceptions was 6.1 per cent among respondents aged 25 or less and 7.4 per cent among those of 35-45 years old, but every age group reported a decline in inflation perceptions compared to the previous rounds. Perception easing was also reported by homemakers and retired persons, usually in the groups with higher inflation sensitivity.