India to be key player in framing global energy dynamics: S&P Global Commodity Insights

India is expected to play an integral role in global energy dynamics, as the country emerges as a source of energy demand optimism, overpowering the headwinds faced by the global oil markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights said on Wednesday.

According to experts at S&P Global Commodity Insights, India is expected to play an increasingly pivotal role in global energy dynamics, with strong demand growth, strategic diversification of supply sources, and a multi-dimensional approach to the energy transition.

The Global oil market headwinds involves sluggish demand and mounting supply from both OPEC+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC+ countries.

"Global oil prices have lost some shine...on the back of a challenging demand environment exacerbated by supply growth from OPEC+ as well as beyond," said Pulkit Agarwal, Head of India Content (Cross Commodities), S&P Global Commodity Insights.

He further points towards the uncertainties surrounding trade, tariffs, and China's demand as key factors.

"For India, oil demand continues to grow helped by favourable demographics and economic growth. India is quickly assuming a prominent place in the global oil demand growth order, while the base is still small to have an oversized implication on the global markets," he said.

India's diversification of oil sources, particularly its continued reliance on Russian oil, is a significant factor in the evolving global energy landscape.

According to Gauri Jauhar of S&P Global, India's rapid urbanization and economic ascent, coupled with high pollution levels, create a complex energy challenge. While India aims for cleaner energy, fossil fuels, particularly coal, remain fundamental.

She calls this problem of balancing among economic growth, energy transition, and energy security as "energy trilemma."

Recently, S&P global said in a separate report that India's rapidly growing biofuels industry is very important to the country's energy transformation, balancing economic growth with sustainability. Bioethanol production is expanding, with India nearing its 20 per cent blending target. However, scaling up bio-CNG production and distribution requires a more concerted effort to overcome existing hurdles.

However, Pritish Raj, Managing Editor for Asia Thermal Coal, S&P Global Commodity Insights, notes that India's coal demand is projected to rise by around 60% by 2050, with domestic supply expected to meet most of this rise.

"The non-power sector, as the key contributor to import growth, is expected to drive the imported thermal coal demand. India's pace of domestic coal production has been phenomenal; going by the same, our estimate is that India's 1.5 billion mt production target is a reasonable expectation, fuelled by the multi-pronged approach involving private investments, mine auctions, mechanized coal transportation, as well as friendly government policies. Rise in population, rapid economic growth, and higher reach of electricity and disposable income warrant this growth," he said.

According PPAC (Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell), import dependence of crude oil soared to 87.7 per cent in 2023-24, up from 87.4 per cent.