India’s GDP likely to grow at 7.5–7.8% in FY26 on strong services, festive demand: Deloitte report

GDP growth seen as strong in FY26: According to a report released on Wednesday, January 14, the country's GDP is likely to grow by 7.5-7.8 per cent in the current financial year (FY26). The report from Deloitte India added that festive demand and strong services activity will drive this growth. However, the report also mentioned that growth may slow down to 6.6-6.9 per cent in FY27 due to a high base and persisting global uncertainties.

Economy shows resilience despite global headwinds

The business consultancy firm reported that real GDP grew by 8 per cent in the first half of 2025-26, underscoring the economy's resilience amid trade disruptions, policy shifts in advanced economies and volatile capital flows.

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Policy focus to shift towards supply-side reforms

"India's resilience is no accident. It stems from sustained pro-growth policies," Deloitte India, Economist, Rumki Majumdar said. "With demand-side levers largely addressed, policy focus in 2026 will shift toward supply-side reforms, focusing on MSMEs, and developing tier-2 and tier-3 cities as new engines of growth," Majumdar added.

India-US trade deal likely by FY26-end

Majumdar said that although external risks are still high, their full impact is unlikely to be seen in FY2026. He also added that the India-US trade deal is likely to be completed by the end of this financial year, which will help revive foreign investment and stabilise the currency.

Policy measures boost domestic demand

The report credited decisive policy measures taken in 2025, including tax exemptions, policy rate cuts and GST rationalisation, for boosting growth by strengthening domestic demand and supporting economic recovery.

FTAs strengthen trade and export outlook

According to the report, favourable inflation trends provided support to growth, while restructuring of trade through several free trade agreements (FTAs) strengthened exports.

Strategic shift in trade partnerships

The consultancy highlighted a strategic shift in trade policy, with India signing agreements with the UK, New Zealand and Oman, implementing the EFTA agreement and starting negotiations with Israel.

"These partnerships unlock manufacturing opportunities and expand India's services footprint beyond the US, while reinforcing investor confidence and paving the way for increased FDI, which remains critical for financing infrastructure and industrial expansion," Majumdar said.

Another report, 'First Advance Estimates', released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), said that India's economy is projected to grow at a faster pace in the financial year 2025-26, mainly driven by the strong performance of the services sector.

According to official data (a report by First Advance Estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)), India’s economy is projected to grow at a faster pace in the financial year 2025-26, driven mainly by strong performance in the services sector. The NSO has projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.4 per cent in FY2025-26, as against 6.5 per cent in FY2024-25. Nominal GDP is projected to grow by 8.0 per cent this year.

In absolute terms, real GDP at constant 2011-12 prices is estimated at Rs 201.90 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, higher than the provisional estimate of Rs 187.97 lakh crore for FY 2024-25. Nominal GDP at current prices is projected to reach Rs 357.14 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, as against Rs 330.68 lakh crore in the previous fiscal.

With IANS Inputs