India-Russia Oil Game: Trump’s ‘watchlist’ or India’s strategy — Will India really stop buying Russian oil by 2027?

India-Russia Oil Game: India’s oil relationship with Russia may be entering a new and far more complicated phase. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has made it clear that “national interest is the guiding factor” in India’s energy decisions, amid foreign media reports that Indian refiners have slowed fresh purchases of Russian crude for the coming months.

The timing has raised eyebrows globally. India’s biggest refiners both state-run and private - appear to be rethinking new Russian oil orders just as New Delhi and Washington move closer towards a major trade agreement. So, is this shift being driven by Donald Trump’s pressure tactics, or is India simply adjusting its energy strategy in a fast-changing world? The answer lies somewhere in between.

A quiet pause in Russian oil orders, not an official stop

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According to foreign media reports, India’s major refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum and Reliance Industries have not placed fresh orders for Russian crude for April loading. That does not mean India has announced a ban or cut-off.

March deliveries that were contracted earlier are still expected to arrive. But the pause in new deals signals something important: Indian companies are becoming more cautious about over-dependence on one source. And in today’s geopolitical climate, every oil shipment has diplomatic weight.

Misri’s clear message: India will buy what works for India

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s statement is significant because it pushes back against the idea that India is acting under outside instructions.

His emphasis was simple:

• India’s decisions will be guided by national interest
• Energy security comes first
• Diversification, fair pricing and reliable supply matter most

In other words, India will buy oil based on what keeps fuel affordable and supplies stable - not based on global headlines.

The US trade deal angle: Is Trump reshaping the oil equation?

The pause comes at a politically sensitive moment. India and the United States have recently indicated progress towards a broader trade framework, with expectations of a larger deal by March.

At the same time, President Donald Trump has claimed India has shown willingness to reduce Russian oil imports. Trump had earlier imposed a 25 per cent tariff penalty linked to Russian oil purchases, which has now reportedly been rolled back. India has not confirmed any such commitment.

But the overlap between trade diplomacy and oil sourcing is hard to ignore. For refiners, the question is no longer just about discounts it is also about future risk.

From record highs to a steady decline: Russian oil imports are already falling

Not long ago, Russia was India’s biggest crude bargain. After the Ukraine war, India became one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian oil. Imports surged past:

• 2 million barrels per day at the peak in mid-2025

But the numbers have been shifting. Recent estimates suggest:

• Average last year: around 1.7 million barrels per day
• December levels: lowest in two years
• March could fall below 1 million barrels per day
• Longer-term plans may limit imports to 500,000–600,000 barrels per day

This is not a sudden break. It is a gradual recalibration.

Why refiners are looking beyond Russia?

Indian refiners are not stepping back without alternatives. With sanctions uncertainty, freight complications and growing Western scrutiny, companies are increasingly sourcing crude from:

• Middle East
• Africa
• South America

Russian oil may still be cheaper at times, but the overall cost now includes diplomatic complexity. India’s approach is becoming clearer: keep options open, avoid being cornered.

Nayara Energy: The Russia-linked refinery in a different position

One exception is Nayara Energy, a private refinery backed by Russian interests. Nayara has been heavily dependent on Russian crude, especially after European restrictions limited its options. However, Nayara is expected to pause imports in April due to scheduled maintenance work, making the overall slowdown appear broader.

Russia’s response: No formal message from India

Moscow has insisted it has received no official communication suggesting India will stop buying Russian oil. Russian officials have underlined that India is a sovereign country and will act according to its own needs. For Russia, India remains a critical energy partner and any long-term decline would matter.

Will India really end Russian oil imports by 2027?

Despite the speculation, experts believe a complete cut-off is unlikely in the near term. There are practical reasons:

• Several Indian refineries are designed for Russian crude grades
• Russia can still offer strong discounts
• India-Russia ties go far beyond oil, including defence cooperation