GDP Estimates Data 2026: India’s real GDP growth seen at 7.4% in FY26, up from 6.5% last year

India’s economy is projected to grow at a faster pace in the financial year 2025-26, driven mainly by strong performance in the services sector, according to the First Advance Estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

The NSO has estimated real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.4 per cent in FY 2025-26, compared with 6.5 per cent growth recorded in FY 2024-25. Nominal GDP is estimated to grow at 8.0 per cent during the year.

GDP Estimates for FY 2025-26

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In absolute terms, real GDP at constant 2011-12 prices is estimated at Rs 201.90 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, up from the provisional estimate of Rs 187.97 lakh crore in FY 2024-25. Nominal GDP at current prices is projected to reach Rs 357.14 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, compared with Rs 330.68 lakh crore in the previous financial year.

GVA Growth

Gross Value Added (GVA) at constant prices is estimated at Rs 184.50 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, registering a growth rate of 7.3 per cent over Rs 171.87 lakh crore in FY 2024-25. Nominal GVA is estimated at Rs 323.48 lakh crore, showing a growth of 7.7 per cent from Rs 300.22 lakh crore in the previous year.

Sector-wise Performance

The NSO data shows that the services sector remains the key growth driver. Financial, real estate and professional services, along with public administration, defence and other services, are estimated to grow by 9.9 per cent at constant prices in FY 2025-26. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting are projected to expand by 7.5 per cent during the year.

In the secondary sector, manufacturing and construction are estimated to grow by 7.0 per cent at constant prices. Meanwhile, growth in the primary sector remains moderate. Agriculture and allied activities are estimated to grow by 3.1 per cent, while electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services are projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in FY 2025-26.

Demand-side Indicators

On the demand side, real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is estimated to grow by 7.0 per cent in FY 2025-26. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a key indicator of investment activity, is projected to grow by 7.8 per cent at constant prices, compared with 7.1 per cent growth in the previous financial year.

National Income and Per Capita Estimates

The NSO has also released annual estimates of gross and net national income, as well as per capita income, for FYs 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 at both constant and current prices, along with detailed sector-wise and expenditure-wise data in its annexures.

Expert View on Market Outlook

Separately, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley India, Ridham Desai, said valuations, trailing performance, macro conditions, market positioning and the growth cycle indicate improving stock returns in the coming months.

The strategy note said growth signals are ahead of consensus expectations and point to positive earnings revisions.

It also said the Reserve Bank of India policy is expected to support liquidity and loan growth, while policy reforms, including measures such as privatisation, are likely underway. The note added that the forthcoming Union Budget could include capital market reforms.