Current account surplus doubles in Q4, at 1.3% of GDP: 10 things to know

India Current Account Surplus Data News: India registered a current account surplus of $13.5 billion in the final quarter of the last financial year, showed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data released on Friday. Thar marked a more than two-fold jump in the surplus from $4.6 billion a year ago. Now, what is a current account surplus, and how is it different from a current account deficit? A current account surplus occurs when a country's exports exceed its imports, suggesting a net inflow of foreign exchange (forex) which is considered positive for the economy. A country's current account surplus indicates its status as a net lender globally, and vice versa.

Here are 10 things to know about the latest current account data:

• The Q4 FY25 figure marks a reversal from a current account deficit of $11.3 billion, or 1.1 per cent of GDP, in the October-December period.
• For the full financial year 2024-25 (FY25), the country's current account deficit stood at $23.3 billion, or 0.6 per cent of GDP.
• However, the full-year figure marks an improvement over a wider deficit of $26 billion (0.7 per cent) the previous year.

• The net outgo on the primary income account--reflecting payments of investment income--moderated to $11.9 billion in Q4 from $14.8 billion a year ago.

• In the financial account, FDI logged a net inflow of $0.4 billion in Q4 over the year-ago period.

• Net inflows under external commercial borrowings (ECBs) stood at $7.4 billion in the March quarter, marking a year-on-year jump of 2.8 times.

• The country's services exports jumped in Q4, though merchandise exports moderated.
• Net services receipts increased to $53.3 billion in Q4 from $42.7 billion a year ago.
• Services exports rose in main groups such as business services and computer services, according to the RBI.

• Net inflows in NRI deposits came in at $2.8 billion in Q4, marking a decline from $5.4 billion a year ago.

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India's CAS More Than Doubles | What economist says

"While the current account balance expectedly reported a seasonal surplus in Q4 FY2025, the size of the same overshot our expectations, amid a surprise dip in primary income outflows in the quarter. This led to the unexpected narrowing in the CAD to 0.6 per cent of GDP in FY2025 from 0.7 per cent in FY2024," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head-Research and Outreach at ICRA.

Amid expectations of a widening in the merchandise trade deficit as well as a moderation in the services trade surplus in Q1, Nair expects the current account to revert to a deficit in the ongoing quarter, printing at around 1.3 per cent of GDP.

"We foresee India's current account deficit to average 1 per cent of GDP in FY2026, assuming an average crude oil price of around $70/barrel for the fiscal year, which is eminently manageable in spite of the prevailing global uncertainties," said the economist.