RBI MPC Meeting 2025 HIGHLIGHTS: MPC votes unanimously for status quo on rate, stance; FY26 inflation pegged at 3.1%

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: Weather-related shocks pose risks to inflation outlook

The RBI expects consumer inflation to edge up beyond 4 per cent in the quarter ending March 31, 2026.

Weather-related shocks pose risks to inflation outlook, according to the central bank. 

The MPC now projects CPI inflation at 2.1 per cent in Q2, 3.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.4 per cent in Q4, and 4.9 per cent in the first quarter of FY27. 

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: CPI inflation at 77-month low, cooling for 8th month in a row

The following factors have led to easing inflation: 

• Sharp fall in food inflation on account of improved agricultural activity and supply-side measures
• Food deflation at 0.2 per cent in June (first negative inflation reading since February 2019)
• Double-digit deflation in vegetables and pulses
• High-frequency price indicators signal a continuation of the lower price momentum in food prices in July
• Fuel group inflation moderated over two successive months to record 2.6 per cent in June

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: Factors supporting economic activity now, external demand prospects uncertain 

The RBI highlights four key factors supporting domestic economic activity now: 

• Above normal southwest monsoon
• Lower inflation
• Rising capacity utilisation
• Congenial financial conditions

However, the prospects of external demand remain uncertain for now given the ongoing tariff announcements and trade negotiations, according to the RBI.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Tariff-related uncertainties still evolving, says Sanjay Malhotra

Mentioning "still evolving" uncertainties around trade tariffs, the RBI governor says that monetary policy transmission is continuing in the banking system.

The impact of the 100-basis-point rate cut (since February) on the economy is still unfolding, he says. 

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Headline inflation now lower than projected earlier, mainly due to volatile food prices, says RBI chief

Headline inflation is much lower than where it was earlier projected to be, mainly due to volatile food prices, especially of vegetables, but core inflation has remained steady around the 4 per cent mark, as anticipated, says the RBI governor. 

Here's what he says:

• Inflation projected to go up from Q4 onwards
• Growth robust and as per earlier projections though below RBI's aspirations

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Real estate weathers unrelenting turbulence with sentiment pressured by tariffs and 20% plunge in housing sales, says property consultant

In Q2 alone, just 96,285 homes were sold, a steep fall from 1,20,335 a year ago that indicates increasing buyer hesitancy and market uncertainty, highlights Anuj Puri, Chairman of property consultant ANAROCK Group. Amid these headwinds, the central bank’s policy choices come with high relevance to initiate a turnaround and arrest further market deterioration, he says. 

A rate cut would have particularly boosted the affordable housing segment, which has been under considerable pressure in recent years, he adds. 

Overall, homebuyers are currently driven by long-term confidence rather than short-term rate fluctuations and given the upcoming festive season, developers may look to keep the market momentum going with offers and flexible payment plans, which may help improve affordability for many genuine buyers, says Puri, citing data on seven Tier 1 cities in the country.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: How economists view policy announcements

Despite sharply lowering its inflation forecast, the RBI’s decision to keep rates steady emanates from its "focus on one-year-ahead expected inflation that’s looking comfortably above 4 per cent while growth in their view has held up well, despite global uncertainty", says Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global Financial Services.

"Focusing on one-year-ahead expected inflation appears increasingly misplaced in an evolving world – particularly as the global landscape continues to shift toward a disinflationary bias in Asia. We think going ahead downside risks to growth would be increasingly evident with new global resets and could still open up space for easing in remainder of the year, even though the Governor seems to have raised the bar higher for further easing," adds the economist. 

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Favourable domestic setting, supportive RBI and government policies augur well for economy in near term, says RBI governor 

Here's what the RBI chief says:

• The monsoon season has been progressing well
• India also approaching the festival season, which typically brings greater enthusiasm and buoyancy in economic activity
• Geopolitical uncertainties have somewhat abated, even though global trade challenges continue to linger
• Over the medium-term also, the Indian economy holds bright prospects in the changing world order drawing on its inherent strength
• RBI is making all efforts to create enabling conditions through a multi-pronged yet cohesive approach to policymaking

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: How market expert Ajay Bagga views August policy

Here's what market veteran Ajay Bagga tells Zee Business: 

• Some disappointment is visible in the market
• The inflation projection has been lowered but then forecast to rise again later this year 
• In June, the encouragement that the market got was that Sanjay Malhotra appeared to act like a classical central banker (hawkish tone)
• Today, there was an opportunity to cut the repo rate further to 5.25-odd per cent levels 
• The RBI has missed that opportunity 
• Going forward, whether there is an economic slowdown, the central bank will realise this missed opportunity then
• The 'neutral' policy stance is along expected lines 

Bagga expects inflation to dip below the RBI's projection, pegging it at as low as 3.0 per cent. 

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: Dalal Street to now be impacted from tariffs or global growth, says expert

As far as tariffs are concerned, the domestic market is most likely to react to external factors such as changes in duty and global growth data, a market expert tells Zee Business.   

"That's where the main impact should come from going forward," he says.  

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: Market steady, no big reaction post-policy announcements

Dalal Street participants are staging limited reaction to policy announcements, with key decisions along expected lines.

The Sensex is trading 88.3 points, or 0.1 per cent, lower at 80,621.9 while the Nifty50 is down 45.3 points, or 0.2 per cent, at 24,604.3 minutes into the RBI governor's speech. 

The Nifty Bank -- whose 12 constituents include stocks like SBI and HDFC Bank -- is looking completely unshaken, trading flat at 55,359.8. 

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: Indian economy navigating steady growth path despite global challenges, says Sanjay Malhotra

The Indian economy is currently navigating a steady growth path despite global challenges, says the RBI governor. 

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Policy stance unchanged at 'neutral'

The RBI governor also announces the status quo on the policy stance. 

Currently, the stance is at 'neutral', which enables to act in either direction while revising key policy rates. 

The decision to leave the stance uncahnged is also unanimous, says Sanjay Malhotra.  

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: FY26 GDP growth forecast at 6.5%

The RBI has maintained its GDP growth projection for the current financial year at 6.5 per cent, with 6.5 per cent in Q1, 6.6 per cent in Q3, and 6.3 per cent in Q4, says the governor.  

RBI MPC Meeting Live: Sanjay Malhotra cites unfavourable base effect, demand-side factors as rationale behind inflation projection revision

The RBI governor says that consumer inflation is now projected at 3.1 per cent, instead of its earlier forecast of 3.7 per cent. 

Sanjay Malhotra mentions the following:

• Unfavourable base effects and demand-side factors 
• Core inflation is now pegged moderately above 4 per cent during the financial year

RBI MPC Meeting Live: BREAKING--FY26 inflation projection revised, now at 3.1% vs 3.7% in June

The RBI governor says that inflation in the country is more benign now than in June, owing to factors such as steady Southwest monsoon rains, healthy sowing of crops in the kharif season, and adequate reservoir levels. 

The RBI now expects CPI inflation to edge up above 4 per cent in Q4 of the current financial year and beyond. 

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: MPC votes unanimously to keep repo rate unchanged

The current macroeconomic conditions, outlook and uncertainties call for policy continuation, says the RBI governor. 

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: BREAKING--Sanjay Malhotra announces rate decision, no change in repo rate

Globally, policymakers are faced with muted growth and a slowing pace of disinflation, says the RBI governor. 

Some advanced economies are even witnessing an uptick in inflation, he says. 

As the dust settles and a new equilibrium emerges, policymakers will have a tough task ahead, he says at the beginning of his August 6 speech. 

They will have to navigate "a world characterised by modest growth, sticky inflation and elevated public debt levels", he says.  

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: With eyes on Sanjay Malhotra's announcements, take a look at rate-sensitive stocks

Financial 

Auto 

Real estate  

Consumer durables

Read more on rate-sensitive stocks

RBI MPC Meeting Today LIVE Updates: What will happen if RBI cuts rate and auto loan rates are slashed by 50 bps?
 

See the impact on a Rs 10 lakh auto loan for 5 years at 9 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 20,758 
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 20,517
Annual savings- Rs 2,892

See the impact on a Rs 5 lakh auto loan for 5 years at 9 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 10,379
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 10,258
Annual savings- Rs 1,452

RBI MPC Meeting Today LIVE Updates: What will happen if RBI cuts rate and auto loan rates are slashed by 25 bps?
 

See the impact on a Rs 10 lakh auto loan for 5 years at 9 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 20,758 
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 20,637
Annual savings- Rs 1,452

See the impact on a Rs 5 lakh auto loan for 5 years at 9 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 10,379
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 10,319
Annual savings- Rs 720

RBI MPC Meeting Today LIVE Updates: What will happen if RBI cuts rate and home loan rates slash by 50 bps?
 

See the impact on a Rs 50 lakh home loan for 20 years at 7.5 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 40,280 
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 38,765
Annual savings- Rs 18,180

Impact on a Rs 30 lakh home loan for 20 years at 7.5 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 24,168
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 23,259
Annual savings- Rs 10,908

RBI MPC Meeting Today LIVE Updates: What will happen if RBI cuts rate and home loan rates are slashed?

See the impact on a Rs 50 lakh home loan for 20 years at 7.5 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 40,280
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 39,519
Annual savings- Rs 9,132

Impact on a Rs 30 lakh home loan for 20 years at 7.5 per cent rate
EMI now- Rs 24,168
Post cut (assumption)- Rs 23,711
Annual savings- Rs 5,484

RBI MPC Meeting Today LIVE Updates: Key levels to watch out for in Nifty and Nifty Bank today

Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the Nifty50 index at 24,500-24,600 levels and a stronger support zone at 24,365-24,450 levels today. 

For the Nifty Bank, the market wizard expects support at 54,950-55,150 levels and a strong support area at 54,575-54,700 levels. 

Read more here

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: What market guru Anil Singhvi suggests before August policy announcements

According to Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi, Nifty Bank is near critical support placed at the 55,150 mark. This is the make-or-break level for now, says the market wizard.

Here's how Singhvi views the market now:

• Direction will be clearer post-policy
• Below 54,950, one can expect fresh weakness in the market
• Above 55,750, strength may return on Dalal Street
• Nifty strong support: 24,450-24,550
• Nifty upper range: 24,765-24,900

Read more here

RBI MPC Meeting Live Updates: Rate cut or no rate cut? What economists say

According to an SBI Research report, the RBI is expected to go with a 25-basis-point cut in the repo rate in light of soft inflation and global uncertainties, aiming to reinforce growth momentum while it has a policy window.

Tariff uncertainty, better GDP growth and CPI numbers in FY27 are all frontloaded, according to SBI Research.

A frontloaded rate cut in August could bring an 'early Diwali' by boosting credit growth, especially as the festive season in FY26 is also frontloaded, it mentioned.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, expects no change in repo and stance.

"(There) could be a marginal change in the inflation forecast of 0.1-0.2 per cent downwards," Sabnavis told Zeebiz.com.

Madhavi Arora, chief economist, Emkay Global, expects a 25-basis-point cut in the repo rate in August.

RBI MPC Meeting Live: RBI's take on US tariffs a key monitorable

All eyes are on the RBI's commentary on US tariffs. Donald Trump has warned of "substantially" increasing the tariff charged on imports from India from the current 25 per cent, criticising New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil.

He has also said that a "zero tariff" offer for imports of US goods into India is not good enough.

It has also accused India of "fuelling the war" in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Modi 3.0 government has pushed back strongly against Trump’s remarks, describing them as “unjustified and unreasonable”.

The external affairs ministry has defended the country’s energy strategy, stating that its crude oil buys from Russia are “a necessity” related to “global market conditions”.

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: What has changed since June? 

Incoming data on key economic indicators including inflation have been supportive of an easing monetary policy.

A cooling CPI and bountiful monsoon rains that have kept vegetable supplies and pices in check. These are some of the factors supporting this view. 

However, a 10-month low in industrial production and jitters around the ongoing trade war, with US President Donald Trump's aggressive stance is keeping investors and economists cautious. 

Meanwhile, commercial banks' rate transmissions have been improving, which most economists expect to translate to better credit flows.   

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: At 'neutral', will policy stance change today? Here's what economists think

None of the polled economists expects the MPC to change its policy stance in the August review.

In June, the six-member panel had switched to a ‘neutral’ stance from ‘accommodative’.

A neutral stance indicates the RBI's intent to act in either direction with key lending rates, contrary to the previous stance, which suggested it was willing to ease the monetary policy.

In other words, technically, a neutral stance of policy means the RBI may either tighten or ease its monetary policy in order to achieve its goals. 

One of its primary goals is to contain inflation within 2 per cent of its long-term goal of 4 per cent while securing economic growth.   

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: What Zee Business poll of economists predicts

According to the Zee Business poll, sixty per cent of economists expect no change in the repo rate in the August review.

The remaining 40 per cent of economists expect a rate cut of 25 basis points today. 

Participating economists are also divided over the expected rate cuts in the remaining three scheduled reviews after August this financial year.

Six in every 10 economists expect a 25-bp cut across the October, December, and February reviews.

Read more about their policy expectations here

RBI MPC Meeting Today Live Updates: RBI kicked off August review on Monday

Typically, the RBI's top brass announces the key decisions on the third day of its scheduled reviews, as it meets six times a year to formulate the monetary policy for the economy. 

The current MPC meeting is the third of the current financial year. 

At the last review, which took place in June, the MPC decided to cut the repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points while changing its policy stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'. 

RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: Sanjay Malhotra to announce decision at 10 am

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is set to reveal what's in store for the economy as he announces the key decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at a press conference slated to commence at 10 am today.

The August MPC review comes at a time when the RBI governor-led panel has already cut the repo rate by 100 basis points across three revisions in the current cycle.