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The&nbsp;upside&nbsp;in&nbsp;Oberoi&nbsp;Realty&nbsp;Ltd&nbsp;may not be over yet&nbsp;despite the stock gaining&nbsp;60 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;last 1 year, compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;over 21 per cent&nbsp;upside witnessed&nbsp;in&nbsp;Nifty50 during the same period, and the&nbsp;investors can look&nbsp;to&nbsp;buy&nbsp;it on dips. 
 
With a&nbsp;beta&nbsp;of 1.5, Oberoi&nbsp;Realty&nbsp;has been riding the liquidity wave. The stock is&nbsp;up&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6&nbsp;per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last 5 sessions and over 7 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;a month. 
 
Beta&nbsp;factor describes the movement&nbsp;in&nbsp;a stock's or a portfolio's returns&nbsp;in&nbsp;relation&nbsp;to&nbsp;that of the market returns, NSE explained&nbsp;in&nbsp;a note. A&nbsp;beta&nbsp;greater than 1.0 suggests that the stock is more volatile than the broader market. 
 
Investors holding the stock can continue&nbsp;to&nbsp;hold while fresh money can be deployed now or on dips&nbsp;towards 945-891-855, suggest experts. 
 
Oberoi&nbsp;Realty&nbsp;with a market capitalization of more than Rs 35000 cr hit a 52-week&nbsp;high&nbsp;of Rs 1051.90 on the BSE&nbsp;in&nbsp;November 2021, and since then the trend had been sideways. 
 
On the weekly charts, Oberoi&nbsp;Realty&nbsp;hit a low of 770 where it formed a strong base&nbsp;in&nbsp;December and then bounced back. It retested the level again&nbsp;in&nbsp;March 2022 and then bounced back. 
 
The stock seems&nbsp;to&nbsp;be hovering&nbsp;in&nbsp;a tight&nbsp;range&nbsp;of 770-950. The stock finally broke out from&nbsp;this&nbsp;tight&nbsp;range&nbsp;last week which is a positive sign for the bulls. The&nbsp;upward move was accompanied by strong volumes which suggest strength. 
 
Most of the&nbsp;technical&nbsp;indicators suggest a strong price&nbsp;up&nbsp;move which&nbsp;could&nbsp;take the stock&nbsp;towards 1300-1600 levels that translates&nbsp;into an&nbsp;upside of over&nbsp;60 per cent from Rs 987 recorded on 1 April, suggest experts.

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“After making&nbsp;higher bottoms, recently the stock gave&nbsp;Range&nbsp;breakouts &amp; made a&nbsp;high&nbsp;of 996.4 accompanied by supportive volumes. The Vortex&nbsp;indicator confirms current&nbsp;Uptrend and PVT&nbsp;Indicator suggest a possible&nbsp;up&nbsp;move,” Bharat Gala, President -&nbsp;Technical&nbsp;Research, Ventura Securities Ltd, said. 
 
A Vortex&nbsp;Indicator is a&nbsp;technical&nbsp;indicator which is used&nbsp;to&nbsp;identify trend or trend reversals. It is made&nbsp;up&nbsp;of 2 lines – an&nbsp;uptrend line and a downtrend line. Traders should use&nbsp;this&nbsp;indicator along with volume price trend, supertrend as well as volume activity, suggest experts. &nbsp; 
 
“Since January 2021 the stock is trading above averages and the Supertrend is&nbsp;in&nbsp;positive mode. The possible targets are 1300-1600&nbsp;in&nbsp;next&nbsp;2 quarters. If the stock price corrects downwards the&nbsp;buy&nbsp;levels are (945-915)-891-(865-855). A stop loss&nbsp;to&nbsp;be observed&nbsp;in&nbsp;the trade is 837,” Gala said. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article is solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their&nbsp;investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

The&nbsp;upside&nbsp;in&nbsp;Oberoi&nbsp;Realty&nbsp;Ltd&nbsp;may not be over yet&nbsp;despite the stock gaining&nbsp;60 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;last 1 year, compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;over 21 per cent&nbsp;upside witnessed&nbsp;in&nbsp;Nifty50 during the same period, and the&nbsp;investors can look&nbsp;to&nbsp;buy&nbsp;it on dips


Technical Check: Potential upside in Oberoi Realty up to 60% in next 6 months; Is it time to buy this high beta stock?

Abhay&nbsp;Agarwal, Founder,&nbsp;and Fund Manager,&nbsp;Piper&nbsp;Serica&nbsp;said that with an expected growth of 15% in corporate earnings, and assuming no geopolitical event, we can expect the Indian market to provide a 15-20% return in FY23. 
 
The risks&nbsp;to&nbsp;this forecast&nbsp;are sharper than&nbsp;expected&nbsp;inflation&nbsp;and rate hikes by global banks&nbsp;including the RBI,&nbsp;Agarwal&nbsp;said&nbsp;in&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij&nbsp;Anand. Edited excerpts:

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Q) The Nifty50 closed on&nbsp;a&nbsp;strong note with double-digit gains. How do you sum up FY22&nbsp;and what&nbsp;are your&nbsp;expectations for&nbsp;FY23? 
 
A) It is quite&nbsp;incredible&nbsp;to&nbsp;see this kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;return&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;year when the FPI selling was&nbsp;at its highest ever&nbsp;of&nbsp;$36 billion so far. This selling was&nbsp;offset by the domestic long-term&nbsp;investors who stuck&nbsp;to&nbsp;their&nbsp;asset&nbsp;allocation plan&nbsp;and have continued&nbsp;to&nbsp;not only hold their&nbsp;investment position but have&nbsp;also&nbsp;added&nbsp;to&nbsp;them.

Mutual fund flows have stayed positive throughout the year. It shows that the&nbsp;Indian&nbsp;investors have matured considerably&nbsp;and&nbsp;are not scared&nbsp;of&nbsp;volatility. 
 
In&nbsp;the past, this kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;FPI selling would have led&nbsp;to&nbsp;a&nbsp;20-30% crash&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;market&nbsp;but this time the support from domestic&nbsp;investors made sure that not only did the&nbsp;market&nbsp;not fall but will end the year with gains. 
 
Long-term&nbsp;investors&nbsp;are looking beyond near-term concerns&nbsp;and&nbsp;are looking for&nbsp;investment opportunities that&nbsp;are&nbsp;in&nbsp;line with the growth&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;Indian&nbsp;economy&nbsp;in&nbsp;this decade. 
 
Even now, the share&nbsp;of&nbsp;equity&nbsp;in&nbsp;savings is less than 5 per cent compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;50 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the real estate. So, there is still considerable room for domestic flows&nbsp;to&nbsp;improve&nbsp;as the&nbsp;investor profiles become younger. 
 
At the same time, FPI&nbsp;inflows will be critical for the Nifty&nbsp;to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;a&nbsp;positive&nbsp;return&nbsp;in&nbsp;FY23. Global funds&nbsp;are continuously shunning risk&nbsp;and have&nbsp;increased their cash holdings&nbsp;to&nbsp;almost 6 per cent from 5 per cent over the last 3 months, the highest level over the last 3 years. 
 
Only if the Ukraine situation starts&nbsp;to&nbsp;resolve itself over the next couple&nbsp;of&nbsp;months,&nbsp;we&nbsp;can&nbsp;expect&nbsp;a&nbsp;big&nbsp;inflow&nbsp;of&nbsp;FPI funds&nbsp;into&nbsp;all emerging&nbsp;markets&nbsp;including&nbsp;India. 
 
The&nbsp;Indian&nbsp;markets have&nbsp;always traded&nbsp;at&nbsp;a&nbsp;premium but post the recent correction, the valuations have become more reasonable.&nbsp;We&nbsp;believe that&nbsp;India will get&nbsp;a&nbsp;higher share&nbsp;of&nbsp;allocations this time because&nbsp;of&nbsp;geopolitical reasons&nbsp;also. 
 
With&nbsp;an&nbsp;expected growth&nbsp;of&nbsp;15%&nbsp;in&nbsp;corporate earnings,&nbsp;and&nbsp;assuming no geopolitical event,&nbsp;we&nbsp;can&nbsp;expect&nbsp;the&nbsp;Indian&nbsp;market&nbsp;to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;a&nbsp;15-20%&nbsp;return&nbsp;in&nbsp;FY23. 
 
The risks&nbsp;to&nbsp;this forecast&nbsp;are sharper than&nbsp;expected&nbsp;inflation&nbsp;and rate hikes by global banks&nbsp;including the RBI. 
 
Q)&nbsp;At&nbsp;a&nbsp;time when leaders&nbsp;are discussing&nbsp;tougher&nbsp;action&nbsp;against Russia,&nbsp;markets have remained relatively stable. Trading on Russia bourses&nbsp;also started. Do you think the worst is factored&nbsp;in&nbsp;by equity&nbsp;markets? 
 
A) The news from Ukraine on the war situation continues&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;a&nbsp;mixed bag. While there is hope that the situation will not get worse&nbsp;and will slowly resolve itself,&nbsp;we&nbsp;are not seeing&nbsp;any signs&nbsp;of&nbsp;global equity funds opening up their wallets&nbsp;to&nbsp;back that hope. 
 
The trading on MOEX has started but with very severe restrictions on the selling&nbsp;of&nbsp;stocks especially by foreign shareholders so it is not reflective&nbsp;of&nbsp;the underlying reality&nbsp;of&nbsp;sanctions. 
 
The&nbsp;market&nbsp;has stayed sideways because&nbsp;investors&nbsp;are varied&nbsp;in&nbsp;taking very strong decisions till clarity emerges. 
 
There is&nbsp;also&nbsp;a&nbsp;large set&nbsp;of&nbsp;economists that feels that the sanctions will hurt the&nbsp;Western countries&nbsp;as much&nbsp;as they would hurt Russia since Russia is one&nbsp;of&nbsp;the biggest suppliers&nbsp;of&nbsp;important commodities&nbsp;to&nbsp;the world. 
 
While there is hope that the situation will not get worse from here,&nbsp;we&nbsp;need&nbsp;to&nbsp;see some solid proof&nbsp;of&nbsp;that before the global funds start&nbsp;allocating&nbsp;to&nbsp;risk&nbsp;assets. 
 
Q)&nbsp;We&nbsp;are&nbsp;approaching financial year-end – which sectors&nbsp;are likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;in&nbsp;focus&nbsp;in&nbsp;FY23&nbsp;and why? 
 
A)&nbsp;We&nbsp;believe that sectors that&nbsp;are direct beneficiaries&nbsp;of&nbsp;opening-up will do&nbsp;well, especially those that got beaten badly.&nbsp;We&nbsp;believe that&nbsp;investors will look for opportunities&nbsp;in&nbsp;sectors like travel&nbsp;and entertainment, consumer tech, EMS,&nbsp;and health care. 
 
The government is now firmly focused on making&nbsp;India self-dependent&nbsp;and reducing imports&nbsp;as much&nbsp;as possible. Therefore, companies that benefit from the rollout&nbsp;of&nbsp;PLI schemes should be on the radar&nbsp;of&nbsp;investors. 
 
Q)&nbsp;Anything which&nbsp;investors should do differently&nbsp;in&nbsp;the new financial year? 
 
A)&nbsp;Investors should be cognizant&nbsp;of&nbsp;the fact that&nbsp;a&nbsp;lot&nbsp;of&nbsp;sectors have got redefined&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last couple&nbsp;of&nbsp;years. Traditional value-creating sectors like large private banks, large generic exporters,&nbsp;autos,&nbsp;and leading FMCG companies&nbsp;are feeling the pressure&nbsp;of&nbsp;competition&nbsp;and&nbsp;a&nbsp;sharp escalation&nbsp;in&nbsp;raw material prices. 
 
Therefore, these companies would cease&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;market&nbsp;darlings&nbsp;and even long-term&nbsp;investors should reassess whether these companies would&nbsp;provide&nbsp;returns that&nbsp;are consistent with their overall&nbsp;return&nbsp;expectations from the portfolio. 
 
At the same time,&nbsp;investors should look for companies that&nbsp;are using digital tech&nbsp;in&nbsp;an effective way&nbsp;to&nbsp;drive down costs, create better products&nbsp;and&nbsp;increase&nbsp;market&nbsp;share. 
 
Q)&nbsp;In&nbsp;the precious metal space,&nbsp;we&nbsp;saw&nbsp;a&nbsp;17% rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;Gold&nbsp;and over 70% upside seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;Silver. What is your view on precious metal space&nbsp;in&nbsp;the new year? How should&nbsp;investors go&nbsp;about&nbsp;investing – digital or physical route? 
 
A)&nbsp;We&nbsp;have&nbsp;always believed that precious metals, while optically&nbsp;attractive&nbsp;as&nbsp;a&nbsp;defensive&nbsp;assets class, underperform compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;good quality equity portfolios over long periods&nbsp;of&nbsp;time though they may outperform&nbsp;in&nbsp;very short cycles. 
 
With lesser&nbsp;and lesser demand from millennials&nbsp;and GenZ consumers, precious metals&nbsp;are no more the ultimate fear&nbsp;indicator. Even with this war situation&nbsp;and Covid before that, gold&nbsp;and silver prices have failed&nbsp;to&nbsp;hit their&nbsp;all-time highs. 
 
The only demand for these&nbsp;assets, especially gold, is from the central banks who hold gold&nbsp;as part&nbsp;of&nbsp;their reserves&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;pre-decided&nbsp;asset&nbsp;allocation plan. 
 
Having said that there should&nbsp;always be&nbsp;a&nbsp;5&nbsp;to&nbsp;10%&nbsp;allocation&nbsp;to&nbsp;precious metals&nbsp;in&nbsp;any&nbsp;investor’s portfolio. For ease&nbsp;of&nbsp;holding,&nbsp;we&nbsp;would&nbsp;always recommend&nbsp;a&nbsp;digital form since it is easy&nbsp;to&nbsp;hold&nbsp;and trade whenever required. 
 
Q)&nbsp;At Zeebiz&nbsp;we&nbsp;celebrated March 24&nbsp;as&nbsp;Wealth creation day&nbsp;as it was&nbsp;a&nbsp;day when the Nifty50 made&nbsp;a&nbsp;bottom&nbsp;in&nbsp;2020&nbsp;and since then it has been&nbsp;a&nbsp;wealth creation opportunity for&nbsp;investors. What&nbsp;were your key learnings? 
 
A) The biggest learning for&nbsp;investors has been&nbsp;to&nbsp;stick&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;asset&nbsp;allocation plan&nbsp;and ignore&nbsp;market&nbsp;volatility.&nbsp;Investors who did not reduce their equity&nbsp;allocation came out on&nbsp;top. 
 
Another learning has been&nbsp;to&nbsp;stay with high quality&nbsp;and not get tempted by beaten-down special situation stocks. Good quality companies&nbsp;always see their price recover the fastest. 
 
Q) Some global rating&nbsp;agencies have downgraded the GDP forecast for&nbsp;India – will that impact&nbsp;markets&nbsp;and earnings trajectory? What&nbsp;are your views? 
 
A) The downgrade&nbsp;of&nbsp;the GDP forecast is not&nbsp;a&nbsp;surprise for the&nbsp;markets,&nbsp;and&nbsp;we&nbsp;believe that the current Nifty valuation has&nbsp;already taken&nbsp;into&nbsp;account&nbsp;a&nbsp;lower-than-expected GDP. 
 
We&nbsp;expect&nbsp;that the earnings estimate for Nifty50 will be reduced by 8-10% for&nbsp;FY23&nbsp;to&nbsp;take&nbsp;into&nbsp;account lower demand&nbsp;and lower margin due&nbsp;to&nbsp;higher raw material prices. 
 
But,&nbsp;any further sharp reduction&nbsp;in&nbsp;GDP estimate or&nbsp;a&nbsp;sharp&nbsp;increase&nbsp;in&nbsp;raw material prices will be&nbsp;a&nbsp;net negative for the&nbsp;markets. 
 
Q) BSE has now 10 cr registered&nbsp;investors on the&nbsp;website – what does it say&nbsp;about the&nbsp;investment climate which has evolved over the past 2 years? 
 
A) It is quite heartening&nbsp;to&nbsp;see that the&nbsp;investors' participation&nbsp;in&nbsp;the equity&nbsp;market&nbsp;is getting broader.&nbsp;We&nbsp;are seeing newer&nbsp;investors come&nbsp;into the&nbsp;market&nbsp;to&nbsp;deploy their savings&nbsp;and benefit from the long-term&nbsp;wealth creation that equity&nbsp;investing&nbsp;provides. 
 
Indians have only 5%&nbsp;allocation&nbsp;to&nbsp;equity compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;50%&nbsp;to&nbsp;real estate.&nbsp;We&nbsp;believe that this ratio will improve since the millennials&nbsp;and GenZ prefer&nbsp;to&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;equity over illiquid&nbsp;asset classes. 
 
The emergence&nbsp;of&nbsp;tech-based brokers&nbsp;and fintech companies has&nbsp;also supported this trend.&nbsp;We&nbsp;believe that this trend will continue&nbsp;to&nbsp;pick up the pace&nbsp;and will reduce our dependence on foreign capital. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article is solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their&nbsp;investment&nbsp;advisers before making&nbsp;any financial decision.)

Abhay&nbsp;Agarwal, Founder,&nbsp;and Fund Manager,&nbsp;Piper&nbsp;Serica&nbsp;said that with an expected growth of 15% in corporate earnings, and assuming no geopolitical event, we can expect the Indian market to provide a 15-20% return in FY23


Dalal Street Voice: We expect Indian market to provide a 15-20% return in FY23: Abhay Agarwal of Piper Serica

Satish&nbsp;Ramanathan, MD &amp; CIO – Equity,&nbsp;JM&nbsp;Financial&nbsp;Asset Management Ltd said that&nbsp;Rupee&nbsp;has seen some pressure&nbsp;in&nbsp;recent times from Rs 74.63&nbsp;to&nbsp;Rs 77.08&nbsp;and has since&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;a&nbsp;bit. &nbsp; 
 
Ramanathan&nbsp;has&nbsp;a&nbsp;rich&nbsp;and varied experience&nbsp;of&nbsp;around 3 decades&nbsp;and joins the&nbsp;AMC from Tattva Capital which was his entrepreneurial endeavor. He started his career with TATA Economic Consultancy Services&nbsp;in&nbsp;1992&nbsp;and has subsequently worked with ICICI Securities, Franklin Templeton&nbsp;AMC,&nbsp;and Sundaram&nbsp;AMC. 
 
In&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij&nbsp;Anand,&nbsp;Ramanathan&nbsp;said that he expects&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;currency weakness only&nbsp;if&nbsp;crude&nbsp;prices&nbsp;continue&nbsp;to&nbsp;remain&nbsp;very&nbsp;high&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;manner. Edited excerpts:

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Q) What does the BJP win&nbsp;in&nbsp;4 states mean for markets, economy&nbsp;and reforms? 
 
A) We generally do not comment on political developments. The BJP win has been&nbsp;along expected lines&nbsp;and will hopefully&nbsp;aid the&nbsp;continued process&nbsp;of&nbsp;development&nbsp;and&nbsp;infrastructure spending. 
 
Q) The war-like scenario must have wiped out&nbsp;a&nbsp;good 5-10%&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;investor portfolio&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;matter&nbsp;of&nbsp;weeks. What&nbsp;advice would you like&nbsp;to&nbsp;give&nbsp;to&nbsp;investors? Should one stay put,&nbsp;add on dips or cash out – what does the history suggest? 
 
A) The&nbsp;intense fear&nbsp;of&nbsp;a&nbsp;fierce war has diminished&nbsp;to&nbsp;a&nbsp;considerable extent. The ramifications, however,&nbsp;are being felt&nbsp;across several commodities&nbsp;and supply chains. &nbsp; 
 
Will these factors push&nbsp;inflation&nbsp;and&nbsp;increase shortages&nbsp;in&nbsp;many commodities is the primary question now? &nbsp;Will&nbsp;high&nbsp;inflation push Central Banks&nbsp;to&nbsp;increase rates&nbsp;and impact equity&nbsp;assets is the next question? 
 
Q)&nbsp;If&nbsp;someone plans&nbsp;to&nbsp;put&nbsp;in&nbsp;Rs 10L&nbsp;after the recent double-digit fall seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;benchmark&nbsp;indices from 52-week&nbsp;highs. What is the right&nbsp;asset&nbsp;allocation strategy considering someone is&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;age bracket&nbsp;of&nbsp;30-45 years&nbsp;of&nbsp;age?&nbsp;Also, should one do lump sum or STP? 
 
A)&nbsp;In&nbsp;period&nbsp;of&nbsp;high&nbsp;volatility such&nbsp;as the current scenario, we find large-cap&nbsp;investments&nbsp;are less prone&nbsp;to&nbsp;panic. &nbsp; 
 
As regards STP/SIP we believe this is dependent on&nbsp;individual risk&nbsp;and one needs&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult their&nbsp;Financial&nbsp;Advisor before undertaking such&nbsp;investment decisions. 
 
Q) With&nbsp;interest rates&nbsp;likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;head North – what is the right strategy for MF&nbsp;investors? Should they look&nbsp;at tweaking their&nbsp;asset&nbsp;allocation? 
 
A) We have noticed that Central Banks'&nbsp;are cautious&nbsp;in&nbsp;raising rates primarily on&nbsp;account&nbsp;of&nbsp;two factors: &nbsp;a) Whether&nbsp;inflation is deeply entrenched or is transient due&nbsp;to&nbsp;supply chain bottlenecks b) whether&nbsp;an&nbsp;increase&nbsp;in&nbsp;rates will hamper the nascent growth post-COVID. &nbsp; 
 
We believe that Central Banks will take their own decisions rather than&nbsp;act&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;concerted&nbsp;manner&nbsp;as&nbsp;in&nbsp;the past. &nbsp; 
 
As far&nbsp;as&nbsp;India is concerned, RBI seems&nbsp;to&nbsp;be cautious&nbsp;in&nbsp;raising rates currently,&nbsp;and we expect liquidity&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;adequate&nbsp;as growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;corporate earnings&nbsp;remain&nbsp;modest. &nbsp; 
 
As regards, MF&nbsp;investors'&nbsp;are concerned they will have&nbsp;to&nbsp;act&nbsp;in&nbsp;reducing the volatility&nbsp;of&nbsp;their portfolios- both&nbsp;in&nbsp;debt&nbsp;and equity. 
 
Q) Retail&nbsp;investors reaffirmed their faith&nbsp;in&nbsp;equities&nbsp;amid volatility (geopolitical&nbsp;towards later part&nbsp;of&nbsp;the month)&nbsp;as equity funds saw&nbsp;a&nbsp;net&nbsp;increase&nbsp;of&nbsp;more than Rs 19000 cr&nbsp;in&nbsp;Feb. What is your view&nbsp;and do you think this war-like scenario could result&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;slowdown&nbsp;in&nbsp;the flows? 
 
A) Retail&nbsp;investors&nbsp;are governed by domestically&nbsp;available options&nbsp;to&nbsp;invest. Under the current conditions&nbsp;of&nbsp;negative real&nbsp;interest rates for retail savers, equity still&nbsp;offers&nbsp;a&nbsp;good option given liquidity&nbsp;and hedge&nbsp;against&nbsp;inflation. 
 
Q)&nbsp;Crude&nbsp;above $100 – what is the kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;impact you foresee on markets, economy,&nbsp;and&nbsp;India&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;in&nbsp;upcoming quarters? 
 
A)&nbsp;Higher&nbsp;crude&nbsp;prices&nbsp;will impact logistics,&nbsp;input costs,&nbsp;and household budgets. &nbsp;We need&nbsp;to&nbsp;observe&nbsp;as&nbsp;to&nbsp;whether&nbsp;Crude&nbsp;prices&nbsp;sustain&nbsp;above 100 dollars for&nbsp;a&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;period&nbsp;of&nbsp;time or it is&nbsp;a&nbsp;short-term phenomenon. &nbsp; 
 
That said, margins&nbsp;in&nbsp;some sectors such&nbsp;as cement have been facing headwinds for some period&nbsp;of&nbsp;time on&nbsp;account&nbsp;of&nbsp;higher energy costs. 
 
Although&nbsp;alternate energy has been growing&nbsp;in&nbsp;the country, it has not been&nbsp;adequate&nbsp;to&nbsp;reduce our dependence on coal or&nbsp;crude&nbsp;oil&nbsp;as the primary source&nbsp;of&nbsp;energy. &nbsp; 
 
In&nbsp;some sectors, we have seen the best&nbsp;of&nbsp;margins behind us,&nbsp;and they may need&nbsp;to&nbsp;operate below the peak margins for&nbsp;a&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;period&nbsp;of&nbsp;time. 
 
Q) What is your take on the&nbsp;rupee? Which sectors could get impacted the most from recent volatility? 
 
A)&nbsp;Rupee&nbsp;has seen some pressure&nbsp;in&nbsp;recent times from Rs 74.63&nbsp;to&nbsp;Rs77.08&nbsp;and has since&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;a&nbsp;bit. &nbsp;As such, we expect&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;currency weakness only&nbsp;if&nbsp;crude&nbsp;prices&nbsp;continue&nbsp;to&nbsp;remain&nbsp;very&nbsp;high&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;manner. &nbsp; 
 
What is encouraging is that&nbsp;in&nbsp;spite&nbsp;of&nbsp;higher oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;and FPI outflows, the currency has not been&nbsp;as volatile&nbsp;as&nbsp;anticipated. &nbsp;We have been positive&nbsp;about the IT sector&nbsp;as&nbsp;a&nbsp;potential beneficiary&nbsp;of&nbsp;currency weakness. &nbsp; 
 
We&nbsp;also expect export-oriented businesses&nbsp;to&nbsp;benefit from the currency weakness&nbsp;as&nbsp;also the changing geopolitical situation. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article is solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their&nbsp;investment&nbsp;advisers before making&nbsp;any&nbsp;financial&nbsp;decision.)

In&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij&nbsp;Anand,&nbsp;Ramanathan&nbsp;said that he expects&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;currency weakness only&nbsp;if&nbsp;crude&nbsp;prices&nbsp;continue&nbsp;to&nbsp;remain&nbsp;very&nbsp;high&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;manner


Dalal Street Voice: Rupee likely to weaken if crude prices continue to remain high in a sustained manner: Satish Ramanathan of JM Financial

Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management said that the Rupee may remain weak and may tend to depreciate. There are two factors in the case of Rupee that are always relevant, trade and investments. Trade may not be a very determinant factor at present. 
 
Prior to Emkay, Joseph was associated with the Aditya Birla Group for almost 12 years as Head of Institutional Sales, and as Head- Investment Research &amp; Advisory, in Aditya Birla Money and Aditya Birla Money Mart. 
 
In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Thomas said that a weaker Rupee invests exporters with currency gain and whereas it robs the importers of their dollars. Edited excerpts: 
 
Q) What does the BJP win mean for markets, economy and reforms? 
 
A) The BJP win in the three states at the face of it means that there is general acceptance of the policies and programs of the government by a large section of the population. 
 
The ruling party retained the states that it has been in power for the last five years. Though, when it comes to electoral gains and losses the logic may not be as simple as this, due to the social undercurrents in each of the states that have gone to polls. 
 
The after effect of the result is continuity in government and the policies. For the broader economy and markets, this may not be as important as it is with a national election as all the major policies and programs come from the central government and the national institutions. 
 
The electoral victory and the continuity is achieved in the face of persistently high inflation, spiraling fuel prices, and inadequate job creation, is something that is comforting for the ruling party. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;

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Q) What is your take on the rupee? Which sectors could get impacted the most from recent volatility? 
 
A) The Rupee may remain weak and may tend to depreciate. There are two factors in the case of Rupee that are always relevant, trade and investments. Trade may not be a very determinant factor at present. 
 
Therefore, the Rupee moves with investments. When FIIs bring in money or we get good inflows from FDIs, the Rupee appreciates and vice versa. Currently, there is outflow on account of FII exit, and the Rupee is weaker. 
 
Being an economy, which is on the path of extensive and intensive growth the imports will be heavier compared to exports, till exports catch up with imports over the longer term, and therefore, we need more dollars.

A weaker Rupee invests exporters with currency gain and whereas it robs the importers of their dollars. That is why in a phase of weakening currency, the profit margins of export-oriented firms rise, provided they have not hedged the forex risk fully. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) The war-like scenario have wiped out a good 5-10% of investor portfolio in a matter of weeks. What advice would you like to give to investors? Should one stay put, add on dips or cash out – what does the history suggest? 
 
A) The abrupt fall in the markets has been the product of the war situation in Eastern Europe. Stocks nose-dived and commodities shot up. 
 
As the war situation improves and negotiations seem to become successful, the markets would also start recovering from the fall. 
 
At the same time, we should not lose sight of the fact that, even before the outbreak of the war, the market was gradually correcting due to the normalization of liquidity and normalization of rates, and the persistent selling by overseas investors. 
 
This may continue to affect the markets till the liquidity normalization process comes to a halt, and as market yields rise to near saturation levels. 
 
In dips like what we have seen so far, it will be good to add to the existing investments as part of a long- term strategic positioning. &nbsp;Over the medium to long term, markets would find alignment with economic fundamentals. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) With interest rates likely to head North – what is the right strategy for MF investors? Should they look at tweaking their asset allocation? 
 
A) There is no need to tweak asset allocation at this juncture. The basic allocation may remain unchanged, between the major asset classes like fixed income and equities, gold etc. 
 
The movement in interest rates or rather the rise in interest rates affects the entire spectrum of fixed income assets adversely. The more prudent thing at this time is to stay at the very short end of the curve, that is, in short maturity products. 
 
The loss of value on account of a rise in interest rates will be very small or marginal in this part of the curve. 
 
Those who are already invested in short-term products may hold it because, in a short-term bond portfolio, at least 20% of the portfolio will be maturing within one year time period, and the fresh investments will be done at the ongoing yields, which obviously will be higher. 
 
Also, portfolios invested into such funds may have accrued gains that give the portfolio some cushion to absorb some short-term pressures. 
 
But, the key thing to do is to stay at the very short end. At the same time, one should keep an eye on when the saturation in yields are going to happen to ensure timely entry into long-duration funds, though it is not an easy task to identify this inflection point. &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) Retail investors reaffirmed their faith in equities amid volatility (geopolitical towards later part of the month) as equity funds saw net increase of more than Rs 19000 Cr in Feb. What are your views, and do you think this war-like scenario could result in a slowdown in the flows? 
 
A) Retail investors are accessing the markets through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). In the last decade, this mode of investing has become popular as investors realised that long-term investing requires approaching the markets in a gradual and phased manner. 
 
Also, they know very well that there is no need to worry about the ups and downs and volatility in the markets. This will continue to be the main channel through which retail money will flow into the markets. 
 
However, it may not be proper to take it for granted that investors will continue to pour in money endlessly. They are also aware of the broad trends and sometimes they may stop the SIPs. 
 
This has happened in the past when a large number of SIPs were stopped when the market actually fell into a bear grip. But, they restarted fresh SIPs later as the markets stabilised. 
 
The inflows which we see today are peak level inflows, and the average inflows were around Rs.9000 Crs on a monthly basis. Therefore, these inflows need not be construed as permanent flows, and we may see the inflows converging to the average levels over shorter time periods. Longer time periods, is set to grow big. &nbsp; 
 
Q) Crude around $100 – what is the kind of impact you foresee on markets, economy and India Inc. in upcoming quarters? 
 
A) Crude is a major item of import for India which in dollar terms is equivalent to almost a third of the forex reserves of the country. Therefore, any surge in oil prices will adversely affect the trade balance. 
 
Widening deficit leads to a weak Rupee which in turn may fan the flames of inflation. Apart from fuelling inflation, crude makes a lot of things more expensive in the local market, as it has an immediate impact on prices of all major articles especially articles of consumption. 
 
High fuel prices pulls down economic growth by about 0.25 % for every 10% rise in the prices. Therefore, the movement from US$ 70-US$ 75 per barrel to around US$ 95 – US$ 100 per barrel, may have a dampening effect on aggregate demand and economic growth &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) Gold recently became the buyer’s favourite – what should be your strategy in case someone plans to put fresh money in the yellow metal? Should they buy physical Gold or digital and why? 
 
A) Gold investments for the portfolio is always a lucrative proposition. But the exposure may be restricted to anything from 5 % to 10%. The rest of the allocation should be in the traditional asset classes like equities and debt. 
 
While investments can be made through gold funds and gold ETFs, one of the attractive avenues available at present is the sovereign gold bonds, which are issued by the RBI at regular intervals. 
 
They pay an interest of 2.50 % per annum, paid semi-annually, something that is not available from any other gold product at present. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) Are there any sectors that you think have run out of steam and investors should ideally look at booking profits or trimming their positions? 
 
A) Banking and financial services, IT, Oil, and Gas, are sectors that may not be impacted by high oil prices negatively. Therefore, remaining invested is a lucrative proposition. 
 
Some of the other sectors that may be impacted is because the high commodity prices may have a bearing on the ability of some of the companies to pass on the higher prices to the final consumers. &nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management&nbsp;said that the Rupee may remain weak and may tend to depreciate. There are two factors in the case of Rupee that are always relevant, trade and investments. Trade may not be a very determinant factor at presen


Dalal Street Voice: Joseph Thomas of Emkay Wealth decodes reasons behind the fall in the rupee

Naveen&nbsp;Kulkarni, Chief&nbsp;Investment&nbsp;Officer,&nbsp;Axis&nbsp;Securities&nbsp;said that&nbsp;this&nbsp;is&nbsp;not&nbsp;the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;reduce&nbsp;equity&nbsp;and&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;debt instruments and&nbsp;people&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;age bracket&nbsp;of&nbsp;30-45 years have long&nbsp;investment horizons&nbsp;and&nbsp;should slowly&nbsp;increase allocation as&nbsp;these turbulent&nbsp;times provide good entry points&nbsp;to&nbsp;build solid long-term portfolios. 
 
Naveen&nbsp;has over 17 years&nbsp;of&nbsp;experience&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;Financial Services&nbsp;and&nbsp;Telecom sectors. Prior&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;he was responsible for&nbsp;Institutional&nbsp;and&nbsp;Retail research as Head&nbsp;of&nbsp;Research with Reliance&nbsp;Securities&nbsp;Limited.

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In&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand,&nbsp;Kulkarni&nbsp;said commodity plays are well placed&nbsp;to&nbsp;deliver solid profits. Banking stocks have corrected but will see solid earnings&nbsp;in&nbsp;FY23,&nbsp;and&nbsp;thus should deliver very good returns. Edited excerpts: 
 
Q) Bulls have taken a back seat as bears&nbsp;took control&nbsp;and&nbsp;have been successful&nbsp;in&nbsp;pushing benchmark&nbsp;indices below crucial support levels. What&nbsp;is&nbsp;your take on markets? 
 
A)&nbsp;The&nbsp;market will be range-bound for a while as macroeconomic&nbsp;and&nbsp;geopolitical challenges keep&nbsp;the&nbsp;volatility at elevated levels. However, post Q4FY22, clarity on&nbsp;the&nbsp;earnings cycle will emerge. 
 
Currently,&nbsp;the&nbsp;earnings cycle&nbsp;is&nbsp;very strong&nbsp;and&nbsp;is&nbsp;likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;remain that way. Thus,&nbsp;the&nbsp;current dips are opportunities&nbsp;to&nbsp;build a compounding long-term portfolio. 
 
Q) Crude oil boils&nbsp;to&nbsp;$130 recently. What&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;impact you see on markets,&nbsp;the&nbsp;economy,&nbsp;and&nbsp;India&nbsp;Inc.? 
 
A) Crude at US$ 130&nbsp;is&nbsp;a significant challenge for&nbsp;the&nbsp;Indian economy as it has a wide range&nbsp;of&nbsp;inflationary challenges.&nbsp;The&nbsp;government will find it challenging&nbsp;to&nbsp;manage&nbsp;inflation with crude at such high levels. 
 
However,&nbsp;India’s crude basket&nbsp;is&nbsp;well-diversified,&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;impact can be managed better. Nonetheless, if crude continues&nbsp;to&nbsp;remain at&nbsp;this&nbsp;level, real growth will come down&nbsp;and&nbsp;higher&nbsp;inflation will result&nbsp;in&nbsp;a stagflation kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;scenario. 
 
Q) Will rising crude oil impact earnings growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;March quarter? 
 
A)&nbsp;The&nbsp;impact&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;March quarter may&nbsp;not&nbsp;be significant as&nbsp;there&nbsp;is&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;system, but&nbsp;the&nbsp;full impact will be seen next quarter onwards 
 
Q) What&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;impact you see on markets as well as reforms post-state election results? 
 
A) We have already seen a significant number&nbsp;of&nbsp;reforms,&nbsp;and&nbsp;some reforms have&nbsp;not&nbsp;taken place. We do&nbsp;not&nbsp;expect any significant reforms with immediacy. 
 
Q)&nbsp;There&nbsp;is&nbsp;no stopping&nbsp;of&nbsp;FIIs as&nbsp;they pull out more than Rs 18000 cr from&nbsp;the&nbsp;cash segment&nbsp;of&nbsp;Indian&nbsp;equity&nbsp;markets&nbsp;in&nbsp;just 3 sessions. What&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;trend you foresee for FIIs amid&nbsp;the&nbsp;US Fed rate hike possibility&nbsp;and&nbsp;Russia-Ukraine war? 
 
A)&nbsp;This&nbsp;is&nbsp;a common trend. Flows tend&nbsp;to&nbsp;be impacted before&nbsp;the&nbsp;rate hikes happen. At&nbsp;this&nbsp;juncture, outflows are likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;continue,&nbsp;and&nbsp;significant outflows have already taken place&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;last six months. 
 
However,&nbsp;in&nbsp;another quarter,&nbsp;the&nbsp;outflows should settle,&nbsp;and&nbsp;more likely&nbsp;inflows should start on&nbsp;the&nbsp;clear visibility&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;rate hike cycle. 
 
Q) Amid Gloom&nbsp;and&nbsp;Doom are&nbsp;there any money-making opportunities that&nbsp;investors can grab? 
 
A)&nbsp;This&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;be a little opportunistic&nbsp;and&nbsp;a bit greedy. Commodity plays are well placed&nbsp;to&nbsp;deliver solid profits. Banking stocks have corrected but will see solid earnings&nbsp;in&nbsp;FY23,&nbsp;and&nbsp;thus should deliver very good returns. 
 
IT&nbsp;is&nbsp;another sector which should see good profitable growth.&nbsp;These sectors are good allocation&nbsp;themes&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;current setup. 
 
Q) Given&nbsp;the&nbsp;fact that&nbsp;the&nbsp;market&nbsp;is&nbsp;down more than 10% from highs – any mistakes (1-5) that&nbsp;investors should avoid making as volatility&nbsp;increases? 
 
A)&nbsp;Investors should&nbsp;not&nbsp;sell any quality stocks&nbsp;in&nbsp;panic as&nbsp;they always come back&nbsp;and&nbsp;provide good exits. Similarly, avoid buying non-quality stocks which have been corrected optically. 
 
Lastly,&nbsp;invest&nbsp;gradually&nbsp;and&nbsp;use&nbsp;the&nbsp;market corrections.&nbsp;This&nbsp;is&nbsp;not&nbsp;the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;make hurried decisions. 
 
Q) How can&nbsp;investors look at asset allocation (considering he/she&nbsp;is&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;age bracket&nbsp;of&nbsp;30-45 years).&nbsp;Is&nbsp;it&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;reduce&nbsp;equity&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;portfolio&nbsp;and&nbsp;increase&nbsp;the&nbsp;percentage&nbsp;of&nbsp;debt? 
 
A)&nbsp;This&nbsp;is&nbsp;not&nbsp;the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;reduce&nbsp;equity&nbsp;and&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;debt. People&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;age bracket&nbsp;of&nbsp;30-45 years have long&nbsp;investment horizons&nbsp;and&nbsp;should slowly&nbsp;increase allocation as&nbsp;these turbulent&nbsp;times provide good entry points&nbsp;to&nbsp;build solid long-term portfolios. 
 
(Disclaimer:&nbsp;The&nbsp;views/suggestions/advice expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article are solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with&nbsp;their&nbsp;investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

This&nbsp;is&nbsp;not&nbsp;the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;reduce&nbsp;equity&nbsp;and&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;debt instruments and&nbsp;people&nbsp;in&nbsp;age bracket&nbsp;of&nbsp;30-45 years have long&nbsp;investment horizons&nbsp;and&nbsp;should slowly&nbsp;increase allocation as&nbsp;these turbulent&nbsp;times provide good entry points&nbsp;to&nbsp;build solid long-term portfolios,&nbsp;Naveen&nbsp;Kulkarni of Axis&nbsp;Securities says


Dalal Street Voice: This is not the time to reduce equity and invest in debt: Naveen Kulkarni of Axis Securities

Indian markets closed in the green on Monday for the fifth consecutive day. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex rallied more than 900 points while the Nifty50 closing above 16800 levels.

Sectorally, buying was seen in banks, IT, finance, and auto stocks while selling was seen in realty, oil &amp; gas, and power stocks.

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Stocks that were in focus include Triveni Engineering, Balrampur Chini Mills and GHCL which closed with gains of over 10 per cent, 3 per cent and 6 per cent respectivelyon Monday.

Here's what Jatin Gohil, Technical Analyst at Reliance Securities, recommends investors to do with these stocks:

Triveni Engineering: Recommendation: Buy on dips | Target: Rs400 | Time Duration: 1-2 Months

Since 27 November 2020, the stock remained above its 20-week EMA and witnessed an exponential rise. For the week ended 25 February 2022, the stock tested that moving average and resumed its up-move.

On 14 March 2022, the stock recorded a new high of Rs 358.20 with a relatively high volume. Historically, the stock witnessed a pullback or time-wise correction after such a sharp up-move.

In case of a pullback, the stock will find support around the Rs 300-280 zone, which will provide a better risk-reward for a fresh long position.

Major technical parameters are in favor of bulls, which could lead the stock towards Rs 400.

On the lower side, its 20-week EMA will continue to work as a key reversal point, which is now placed at Rs253.

Balrampur Chini: Recommendation: Buy on dips | Target: Rs600 | Time Duration: 1-2 Months.

On 11 March 2022, the stock surpassed its near-term supply zone (i.e. placed between Rs447-460) convincingly.

Later, the stock extended gain and recorded a new high of Rs 515 with a relatively higher volume. The rise in future open interest (OI) and an increase in volume signals that major market participants are in favor of bulls.

We believe that the stock will keep exploring uncharted territory, which could take it towards Rs600.

As per the change in polarity principle, its prior supply zone (Rs 447-460) will act as a support zone, which will provide a better risk-reward for a fresh long position.

In case of decline, the stock will find major support around its 200-day SMA, which is placed at Rs364.

GHCL: Recommendation: Buy on dips | Target: Rs 600 | Time Duration: 1-2 Months

On 11 March 2022, the stock witnessed a breakout from a wide range of consolidation (Rs 360-480) and extended gain subsequently.

A rise in delivery volume signals that market participants are still in favor of bulls. The stock has the potential to move towards its revised upper band of the range, which is placed around Rs 600.

In case of pullback, the stock will find support around its breakout point, which is placed around Rs 480. On the lower side, the stock will find support around the Rs 440-420 zone.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Indian markets closed in the green on Monday for the fifth consecutive day. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex rallied more than 900 points while the Nifty50 closing above 16800 levels.


Buy, Sell or Hold: What should investors do with Triveni Engineering, GHCL and Balrampur Chini?

Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) rallied by&nbsp;about&nbsp;40&nbsp;per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last&nbsp;one year compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;5 per cent rise seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50,&nbsp;and 6 per cent gain&nbsp;in&nbsp;the S&amp;P BSE 200&nbsp;index&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period.

BEL&nbsp;is&nbsp;a&nbsp;Navratna PSU under the Ministry of&nbsp;Defence, Government of&nbsp;India&nbsp;hit&nbsp;a&nbsp;fresh&nbsp;52-week&nbsp;high&nbsp;of Rs 227&nbsp;on&nbsp;12 November but then the trend went sideways.

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However, the&nbsp;company&nbsp;has been resilient&nbsp;amid the volatility seen&nbsp;on&nbsp;D-Street due&nbsp;to&nbsp;Russia-Ukraine war. The stock rose 0.17 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;week,&nbsp;and over 4 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;one month compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;6 per cent,&nbsp;and 9 per cent fall seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period.

The stock&nbsp;is&nbsp;trading well&nbsp;above the crucial short-&nbsp;and long-term moving&nbsp;averages of 30,50,100&nbsp;and 200-Days Moving&nbsp;Average which&nbsp;is&nbsp;a&nbsp;positive sign for the bulls.

The&nbsp;company&nbsp;is&nbsp;forming&nbsp;higher&nbsp;high&nbsp;and&nbsp;higher lows on&nbsp;weekly charts which&nbsp;is&nbsp;a&nbsp;positive sign for the bulls.&nbsp;A&nbsp;close&nbsp;above the short moving&nbsp;average of 21-DMA suggests strength.

The stock can be bought now or&nbsp;on&nbsp;dips for&nbsp;a&nbsp;target of Rs 260&nbsp;in&nbsp;the next&nbsp;6-9&nbsp;months, suggests experts.

BEL&nbsp;is&nbsp;an&nbsp;Indian state-owned&nbsp;aerospace&nbsp;and&nbsp;defence&nbsp;company&nbsp;with&nbsp;about nine factories,&nbsp;and several regional offices&nbsp;in&nbsp;India.

The&nbsp;company&nbsp;spends&nbsp;about 7.5 per cent of its turnover&nbsp;on&nbsp;R&amp;D,&nbsp;one of the&nbsp;highest&nbsp;amongst&nbsp;defence&nbsp;PSUs. Till now&nbsp;approx. 160&nbsp;applications filed for IPRs

The order book of the&nbsp;company&nbsp;stands&nbsp;at 52,148 Cr with&nbsp;a&nbsp;fresh&nbsp;order&nbsp;inflow of 1,561 Cr. Major orders&nbsp;include&nbsp;Advanced Composite Communication System, Electronic Warfare System, Naval Fire Control System, 3D Surveillance Radar.

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The stock price&nbsp;is&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;long-term uptrend forming&nbsp;higher&nbsp;top&nbsp;and&nbsp;higher bottom&nbsp;on&nbsp;weekly chart i.e., each new&nbsp;high&nbsp;after&nbsp;an up move&nbsp;is&nbsp;higher than previous&nbsp;high&nbsp;and each new low&nbsp;after&nbsp;a&nbsp;decline&nbsp;is&nbsp;higher than previous low.

For the last 5&nbsp;months&nbsp;stock has been range bound between 228&nbsp;and 190 odd levels. It has been consolidating its gains&nbsp;and formed&nbsp;a&nbsp;base for next leg of rally.

“After forming bullish hammer candle (small body&nbsp;and long lower shadow)&nbsp;indicating buying&nbsp;at lower end of the channel, stock has followed up with bullish long body candle&nbsp;and&nbsp;above&nbsp;average volumes&nbsp;this&nbsp;week,”&nbsp;Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Equity Research, Sanctum Wealth, said.

“Price has moved&nbsp;above 21-day exponential moving&nbsp;average (green line) which has been&nbsp;acting&nbsp;as support for the during its long uptrend. Relative strength&nbsp;index (RSI) has given positive crossover with its&nbsp;average turning up from level of 50&nbsp;on&nbsp;weekly chart,” he&nbsp;added.

Chaturmohta said that the stock can be bought&nbsp;on&nbsp;dips&nbsp;to&nbsp;209 with stop loss of 200 for target of 260&nbsp;in&nbsp;next&nbsp;6-9&nbsp;months.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article&nbsp;is&nbsp;solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their&nbsp;investment&nbsp;advisers before making&nbsp;any financial decision.)

Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) rallied by&nbsp;about&nbsp;40&nbsp;per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last&nbsp;one year compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;5 per cent rise seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50,&nbsp;and 6 per cent gain&nbsp;in&nbsp;the S&amp;P BSE 200&nbsp;index&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period


Technical Check: 40% returns in a year! Bharat Electronics is on track to hit fresh 52-week high in 6-9 months

Keval Bhanushali, CEO at Marwadi Financial Services believes that investors can look at investing 15%-20% of their capital at this level, but it is not going to be such an easy bishop recovery for the markets, he opines.

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Bhanushali said that the Indian equity market is expected to stay volatile due to geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices which will impact market sentiments. Panic in the market is rising but this is not the right time to change the investing strategy.

Edited Excerpts –

Q) Is it time to follow Warren Buffett's methodology – be greedy when others are fearful considering a war-like situation at the helm?

A) To be honest, this is one thing which I tell a lot of people that you cannot just mimic Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger’s strategies in isolation or in bits and pieces.

You also have to understand that they have patience levels like no one else. So, if you take any part in the strategy, you always have to keep that in mind.

Having said that, yes, we are in a very tight situation, and I don't really think that it is time yet to start bottom fishing because even though there could be some interventions about war and everything that is going on.

I don't think that we are behind the whole geopolitical tensions, inflation, and also a lot of other global factors which are yet to be factored in.

I don’t see markets rushing into new highs very soon. One can keep a very close eye on markets and start looking at good stocks.

Investors can look at investing 15%-20% of their capital at this level, but I don't believe that it is going to be such an easy bishop recovery for the markets.

Q) What does the history tell us about various Black swan events which have unfolded in history and what is the key takeaway for investors?

A) A black swan event is something that comes out of nowhere. This was more about the ignorance and overconfidence of a lot of global leaders because there were more than enough warning signs that were given about the current geopolitical stress that was happening.

If you look at it, history tells you to not really take anything for granted and when it comes to people protecting their land you should not rule out anyone as a weak candidate and such kinds of things don't really end in a week or 10 days.

It is an ongoing intervention that will be required when you look at any big war in history. Though I am very confident that this issue will also be addressed by global leaders, it is still too soon to go all out in buying right now.

Q) Does it make sense for investors who plan to invest say Rs 10L now or should wait for a dip?

A) Investors should look at investing 15-20% of their capital at these levels and do so in a staggered manner over every 2%+ dip in markets averaging your holdings may not be a great idea yet.

The Indian equity market is expected to stay volatile due to geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices which will impact market sentiments. Panic in the market is rising but this is not the right time to change the investing strategy.

Q) Many recent investor MF portfolios might have lost steam and wiped out most of the gains made in last 2 years. Things which portfolio investors should avoid doing amid the current turmoil?

A) The last thing that anyone should be doing is sell their holdings. Never try to do that in a panic situation, especially in a country like India and America.

Mutual fund investors should not try to redeem their units as of yet. If you are an SIP investor you would want to be a buyer at every stage of the market.

I think sometimes the best action is no action and this is the moment of that sometimes. I reiterate that no one should change any kind of investment strategy in the current situation.

Q) Many new NFO were launched post Budget. In light of rising geopolitical concerns as well as rising interest rates – how should investors pick and chose funds? Which MF theme is suitable for long-term investment?

A) I would strongly recommend people who have come into the market in the last past few years to understand that there is a need for debt mutual funds or debt instruments in your portfolio.

Equity is not the only asset class you should look at. It was a very common phenomenon in the past few years where people would rule out debt as an instrument worthy enough to be invested in.

This is a completely wrong approach because equities are cyclical in nature. Today it is war, tomorrow it is going to be something else.

Any kind of unforeseen event will keep it volatile, so debt instrument is something that everyone should look at.

Also, given the current scenario, we expect interest rates to be hiked and if that happens, a lot of people will benefit from debt instruments right now.

Q) When everything is available on a discount what should be stock selection criteria for long-term investors?

A) I have been a strong advocate of a portfolio approach instead of an individual stock approach. It should always be the overall approach of the portfolio.

In the current scenario, real estate is one sector which we are bullish about. So, while 70% - 80% of them might go further southward, there will be 10% to 20% of them which are going to go another 5 to 10 times from here.

It will be too difficult to judge them as yet so I would recommend that you can have sectoral locations or thematic allocation in different themes like platform-based businesses and real estate.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Keval Bhanushali, CEO at Marwadi Financial Services believes that investors can look at investing 15%-20% of their capital at this level, but it is not going to be such an easy bishop recovery for the markets, he opines.


Dalal Street Voice: Invest 15-20% capital on every 2% dip in market but no bottom fishing: Keval Bhanushali of Marwadi Financial Services

Anshul Rai, Founder, Earthwise Investors said that we believe this transformation towards a sustainable world is the greatest investment opportunity for the next 20-30 years.

Anshul has over two decades of sustainable investment experience in Emerging &amp; Frontier Markets spanning Asia, Africa, and Middle East, in a broad range of industries including renewable energy, water, waste management, healthcare, transportation and telecoms.

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In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Rai said that investors seeking long-term returns and wealth accumulation must therefore align their investment strategies with the paradigm of Sustainability. Edited Excerpts -

Q) RBI maintained status quo on rates and maintained a dovish stance which came as a welcome surprise for markets. What is the trajectory you foresee for rates in near future?

A) We feel that the need of the hour is to nurse, promote and sustain the nascent economic growth. The RBI also seems cognizant of the same and hence the dovish stance.

We do not expect the RBI to be too aggressive in rate hikes at least in this calendar year. Inflation is a worry, but as the base effect wears out over the 2HFY23, it could moderate and that is what the RBI is betting on.

Having said this, an oil shock due to prolonged geopolitical tensions can be the spanner in the wheel.

Q) Indian market picked up momentum post Budget after initial US Fed jitters stabalised. What are your views on markets for 2022? What will be next trigger for markets?

A) The domestic backdrop for the Indian equity markets is constructive for 2022, even though the global conditions look less favourable given the impending interest rate increases in the US and tighter monetary conditions in all major economies.

In the short- to medium-term, the only certainty can be volatility with pronounced, news-driven moves (as seen on Monday).

Over the next 12 months, though, we expect the fundamentals to reassert themselves. Most companies that we speak to are bullish on the demand conditions.

Margin pressures will remain for a couple more quarters, in our view. As companies come out of this through increased realisations, markets will start to focus on that and may probably start an uptrend in anticipation.

Q) Budget 2022 was focused on boosting growth – do you see sectoral rotation taking place? Which should long term investors focus on?

A) As a growing economy with a low per capita GDP, there are growth opportunities in nearly all sectors. From consumption to CAPEX, the budget should help all the economy’s engines to contribute to broad-based growth.

Sectoral rotation is something that market participants always like to talk about but, as long-term investors, we prefer to play the longer-term, structural trends. 
&nbsp; 
As an investor, more than a sector-focused approach, one should look at business models or franchises which are sustainable long-term and have the ability to grow faster than their peers and generate ROIs higher than their cost of capital.

Such companies will create wealth (almost) irrespective of the macro backdrop.

Q) Which theme will dominate markets in 2022 – value or growth? We saw a lot of liquidity chasing many mid and small cap stocks in 2020-2021 to tap growth. What are your views?

A) As stock market investors we are buying businesses, so no one will invest in companies where they don’t see value creation.

As investors, we buy businesses that have the potential for long-term value creation. Putting companies in “growth” or “value” buckets is quite subjective and, frankly, lazy in our opinion.

What is growth for one, could be value for another. Capital moves where it perceives relative value, so maybe it chased mid and small caps last year, because the opportunity for delta was high.

This year will mostly be a year of consolidation and movement will be very stock-specific in our view.&nbsp;&nbsp;

We believe that, as an economy and market, India offers excellent relative value for global investors, and we do not see that trend changing – despite the current reversal.

Q) Any new age developing themes which investors can look at for next 2-3 years? And the ones which one can avoid amid high valuations?

A) Our advice to investors is to avoid investing on the basis of a theme or fad. They tend to be momentum-drive affairs and most investors don’t have the agility to time the moves perfectly.

This is particularly true of stock markets with the current excess global liquidity exacerbating moves in both directions.

So, always focus on high-quality companies with strong business models which can grow sustainably and create long term value.

Many investors don’t have the necessary time (or, possibly, skills) to do the required “deep dive”. If that’s the case, please hand your money over to professionals.

Q) The world is focused on ESG or sustainability investing, but for India it is relatively new. Take us through the journey of ESG investing and way forward?

A) The so-called “ESG” investing (we prefer the term “sustainable investing”) has gone mainstream relatively recently, has remained a niche concept until the adoption of SDGs by the UN and the signing of the Paris climate agreement in 2015.

Since then, there has been explosive growth in ESG-labelled investment products as well as fund managers claiming to adhere by ESG principles.

This reflects genuine investor interest in sustainable investments as well as more opportunistic attitude of fund managers “jumping on the bandwagon”.

Looking forward, we believe investors will become far more discerning in their product selection. They will seek genuine differentiation in investment strategy and process – which are led by sustainability principles.

Q) Which companies according to you rank highest in ESG framework and why?

A) The characterisation of a company as sustainable is done around multiple dimensions encompassing a broad range of environmental and social factors.

It is not enough to just look at carbon emissions or air pollution or waste generation. We also need to look at the impact on society – on dimensions such as job creation, skill development, working conditions, and access/inclusion.

Sustainability analysis is also highly contextual – driven by socio-economic factors of a country/economy. In the Indian context, the most sustainable companies are the ones that generate high levels of economic value addition with the lowest carbon footprint and minimum pollution.

They provide a large number of [highly-paid] jobs while treating their staff fairly and promoting an inclusive workforce.

Examples of such companies are to be found in sectors such as Software/IT, Telecoms, Renewable Energy, Healthcare and Financial Services.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Q) Why should investors focus on ESG/sustainability score before investing?

A) Beyond the digital transformation currently underway, the world will also witness another transformation over the next few decades – a transformation to a sustainable world.

There is ample evidence confirming the current patterns of production and consumption are unsustainable – to enable people in Asia, Africa and Latin America (representing 85% of world population) to achieve the basic level of prosperity common in the “developed” world.

The adverse environmental and social impacts of economic growth must be mitigated to ensure that our planet and our societies are still around for the future generations.

At Earthwise, we believe this transformation towards a sustainable world is the greatest investment opportunity for the next 20-30 years.

Investors seeking long-term returns and wealth accumulation must therefore align their investment strategies with the paradigm of Sustainability.

Q) What are your key takeaways from Budget 2022? The government has taken a lot of initiatives around pushing green energy. What are your views?

A) The budget was a major development for a “Sustainable India”. The announcement of inaugural sovereign green bond is a major milestone.

It demonstrates the government’s commitment to sustainable development. Achieving UN SDGs requires access to capital and green bonds have emerged as a preferred mechanism for the same.

Continued support and expansion of the PLI schemes is crucial for India’s quest for jobs-intensive economic growth and a major pillar of government’s sustainable development strategy.

We also found the announcements on Parvatmala (cable car based transport systems), battery swapping policy and inclusion of energy storage systems in the definition of infrastructure as significant positives.

The budget also expands the scope of “Circular Economy” – by laying greater emphasis on issues such as reverse logistics and integration of the informal sector.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

&nbsp;

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Rai said that investors seeking long-term returns and wealth accumulation must therefore align their investment strategies with the paradigm of Sustainability.


Dalal Street Voice: Budget 2022 was a major development for a “Sustainable India”: Anshul Rai of Earthwise Investors

Siemens&nbsp;Ltd rose over 30 per cent last&nbsp;year compared to over 14 per cent rise seen in the Nifty50 but the good news is that the uptrend is still intact, and investors can hold positions for targets closer to Rs 2700 in the next 3-6 months. 
 
The heavy equipment maker with a market capitalization of more than Rs 87,000 cr&nbsp;hit&nbsp;a&nbsp;fresh&nbsp;52-week&nbsp;high&nbsp;of Rs 2577 on 13 December, but since then the trend sideways. 
 
Siemens&nbsp;Limited offers products, integrated solutions for industrial applications for manufacturing industries, drives for process industries, intelligent infrastructure and buildings, efficient and clean power generation from fossil fuels and oil &amp; gas applications. 
 
The company receives ~77% of its revenues from its business within India while the rest 32% revenues come from business outside India.

[[{"fid":"175904","view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":476,"width":846,"class":"media-element file-default"},"link_text":null}]]

The recent action seems to suggest that the stock is getting support at lower levels.&nbsp;Siemens&nbsp;rose more than 2 per cent in a week and nearly 6 per cent in last month. If the trend sustains the stock&nbsp;could&nbsp;well surpass 2577 and&nbsp;hit&nbsp;fresh&nbsp;highs&nbsp;in the next 3-6 months, suggest experts. 
 
The stock has formed an&nbsp;Inverted&nbsp;Head&nbsp;and&nbsp;Shoulder&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;on the daily charts. The stock has been finding support near the 89-Days EMA (in green line). It breached the resistance level last week which has opened room for further upside. 
 
An&nbsp;inverted&nbsp;Head&nbsp;and&nbsp;Shoulder&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;is formed when the price falls to a trough and then rises, in the second wave, the price fall below the previous trough and then rises. And, finally, the price falls but not as much as the second trough. 
 
A breakout happens when the price starts rising after&nbsp;hitting the trough and breakout on the upside above the resistance level. 
 
“Stock is in a long-term uptrend forming a&nbsp;higher top and&nbsp;higher bottom on daily chart i.e., each new&nbsp;high&nbsp;after an up move is&nbsp;higher than previous&nbsp;high&nbsp;and each new low after a decline is&nbsp;higher than previous low,” Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Equity Research, Sanctum Wealth, said. 
 
“The 89-day exponential moving (green line) is acting support on dips and stock is trending&nbsp;higher. Though recently price had dipped below the average it has bounced above the average maintaining rising uptrend structure,” he said. 
 
On the daily chart, the price has formed over the last few weeks stock has formed&nbsp;bullish&nbsp;inverted&nbsp;head&nbsp;and&nbsp;shoulders&nbsp;patterns. Chaturmohta said that the stock can be bought at current levels and on dips 2400 levels with a stop loss of 2330 for the&nbsp;target of 2700 and 2840 levels. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Siemens&nbsp;Ltd rose over 30 per cent last&nbsp;year compared to over 14 per cent rise seen in the Nifty50 but the good news is that the uptrend is still intact, and investors can hold positions for targets closer to Rs 2700 in the next 3-6 months


Technical Check: Siemens forms bullish Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern; could hit fresh 52-week high

Abhay Agarwal, Founder, and Fund Manager, Piper Serica said that while the year 2021 was an exceptionally rewarding one for equity investors we believe that markets will give back some of those gains in 2022 especially in frothy and speculative assets.

Infrastructure, healthcare, education, self-dependence through PLI schemes, etc. are part of the long-term theme that long-term investors should focus on, Agarwal said in an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand.

Edited excerpts:

Q) RBI surprisingly maintained a dovish stance in February monetary policy while keeping interest rates unchanged. What rate trajectory you foresee in near future?

A) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sent a clear signal to the markets that it will prioritize growth over inflation. It has continued with an accommodative stance despite the inflation remaining higher than its target rate. It has maintained its inflation forecast.

While it is heartening to see this stance at the same time there is a worry that RBI may fall behind the curve in case inflation spikes. Oil prices are a major contributor to inflation and there has been no hike in pump prices since international oil traded at $75 compared to $95 right now.

With commodity prices firming up again there is a possibility that RBI may be forced to hike rates ‘sooner and faster’ just as the Fed is being forced to do right now.

The economy is opening up rapidly post Omicron wave leading to demand spikes while the supply side remains constrained. Our view is that RBI could be forced to change its accommodative stance in the event of a spike in inflation.

We expect the reverse repo rates to be increased by 35-65 basis points and repo rate by 25-50 basis points in the next couple of policy meetings.

Q) Indian market picked up momentum post Budget after initial US Fed jitters stabilized. What are your views on markets for 2022? What will be the next trigger for markets?

A) We expect the markets to be extremely volatile with a negative bias over the next couple of months. Inflation targeting by the US Fed and other central banks, oil price spike, and geopolitical risks will keep the markets on an edge in the foreseeable future.

We are seeing large global investors getting into cash for the time being by rushing out of risky assets. While the year 2021 was an exceptionally rewarding one for equity investors we believe that markets will give back some of those gains in 2022 especially in frothy and speculative assets.

While long-term investors will be able to ride this volatility, short-term traders, especially those with leverage, will find it very hard to survive. 
&nbsp; 
Q) Budget 2022 was focused on boosting growth – do you see sectoral rotation taking place? Which should long-term investors focus on?

A) Budget 2022 spelt a clear statement of intent from the government that it wants to pursue long-term economic growth and will provide all policy support to sectors that are critical for the same.

Infrastructure, healthcare, education, self-dependence through PLI schemes, etc. are part of the long-term theme that long-term investors should focus on. 
&nbsp; 
Q) Which themes will dominate markets in 2022 – value or growth? We saw a lot of liquidity chasing many mid and small-cap stocks in 2020-2021 to tap growth. What are your views?

A) In the rush to make money, investors bid up growth stocks to unsustainable levels in the last couple of years. The hot IPO market over the last six months saw the peak of this trend.

As investors become risk-averse, we are seeing a massive correction in valuations of a particular segment of growth stocks. However, there are no signs to say that value stocks with their cheaper valuation are seeing any inflow or are benefitting.

Since the value stocks did not give any returns to investors over the last 5 years, their correction is also muted.

We believe that when the markets settle down investors will return to well-managed growth stocks, even those that trade at a premium valuation since equity investors generate their returns by betting on growth. 
&nbsp; 
Q) Crude seems to be on the boil. What is your call on the commodity market in 2022?

A) The world created a nonsensical narrative over the last decade around a fall in demand for carbon fuels. As a result, and particularly during covid times, the big oil companies found it non-remunerative to invest in exploration.

The popular consensus was that renewable power will soon overtake carbon fuels. The world is now paying the price for this massive mistake. As demand spikes, there is suddenly limited supply.

We think that crude prices will stay elevated in most of 2022 till new rigs get deployed and supply increases. The world also needs to introspect about the time it would take for renewables to really replace carbon fuels. 
&nbsp; 
Q) Are there any sectors poised for re-rating given the government's focus on pushing CAPEX?

A) The government has been spending on CAPEX for the last couple of years, but the private sector CAPEX has not kept pace. Till private CAPEX picks up the pace we do not see much room for investors in Capex heavy segments like cement, steel etc.

Anyways, sectors that benefit from large Capex projects have limited pricing power and have historically failed to reward investors on a sustained basis. 
&nbsp; 
Q) Any new age developing themes which investors can look at for the next 2-3 years? And the ones which one can avoid amid high valuations?

A) Investors should be wary of higher inflation in most of 2022. We expect companies to go through margin compression, especially those that use crude derivatives as input costs.

With limited ability to increase selling prices, we expect to see B2C product companies go through a low margin cycle. It will be easier for services companies to protect their margins by deploying technology to deflate costs.

Therefore, investors should tilt their portfolio in favour of leaders of high-growth sectors like financial services, healthcare, education, F&amp;B, etc. that are able to protect, and even increase margins, by very effectively using digital tech.

Investors should completely avoid companies that are loss-making, leveraged, or are turn-around candidates since they will find it very difficult to service debt in a low liquidity environment

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Abhay Agarwal, Founder, and Fund Manager, Piper Serica said that while the year 2021 was an exceptionally rewarding one for equity investors we believe that markets will give back some of those gains in 2022 especially in frothy and speculative assets.


Dalal Street Voice: Focus on winning themes like Infra, healthcare, education, Abhay Agarwal of Piper Serica tells long term investors

Graphite India Ltd rose 26 per cent in the last year compared to 15 per cent upside seen in Nifty50 in the same period, and 20 per cent rally seen in the S&amp;P BSE 500 index.

The stock has been under pressure after it formed a Death Cross on daily charts back in November 2021. A Death cross is formed when 50DMA falls below 200DMA.

Graphite India recorded this bearish crossover in November, and since then the stock has fallen towards Rs 400 in December from Rs 510 on 8 November translates into a fall of over 20 per cent.

However, the recent price action suggests that momentum is picking up in Graphite India; however, a break above 200-DMA placed near Rs 600 is required for bulls to take control.

A close above the 200-DMA will open doors for the stock to head towards Rs 650-680 levels in the next 2-3 months, suggest experts.

<img alt="image001" src="https://i.ibb.co/sKTwySr/image001.png" />

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The stock is trading well above the 30-DMA which it reclaimed on 1 February, as well as 50-DMA, and 50-EMA placed at 475, and 504 respectively.

The stock after the decent correction from the peak level of Rs 815 recorded on 25 May 2021, has taken support near 400 levels to form a strong base on the daily chart.

Recent price action indicates a good recovery, and the stock seems to be consolidating near the 480-520 zone. A breakout above Rs 600 is required where investors can put fresh money.

“The stock has maintained above the significant 50EMA level of 504 to improve the bias and with the chart looking attractive technically has immense upside potential in the coming days,” Vaishali Parekh, Vice President - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd, said.

“The significant 200DMA level is situated near the 600 zone and a decisive break above that level would intensify the momentum to fresh new targets,” she said.

Overall, the indicators like the RSI also have shown prominent strength and are well placed to carry on the momentum still further upside thus justifying our view for a recommendation to buy in this stock.

“We suggest investors to buy and accumulate this midcap stock for an upside target of 650-680 keeping the stop loss near 480 levels for a time period of 2-3 months and expect good returns from the investment,” recommend Parekh.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Graphite India Ltd rose 26 per cent in the last year compared to 15 per cent upside seen in Nifty50 in the same period, and 20 per cent rally seen in the S&amp;P BSE 500 index.

The stock has been under pressure after it formed a Death Cross on daily charts back in November 2021. A Death cross is formed when 50DMA falls below 200DMA.


Technical Check: Death Cross on charts! This high beta midcap stock eyes 200-DMA for an upward move towards 650-680

I will be bullish on the cement sector considering the newly introduced seven pillars of the Gati Shakti plan, Vaibhav Agrawal, CIO, TejiMandi said in an interview with Zeebiz’s Kshitij Anand.

Agrawal is a seasoned professional with over a decade of expertise in stock picking and generating index-beating returns. Mentored by the aficionado of investors, Raamdeo Agrawal, Vaibhav has developed a distinct investment philosophy.

India should be in an upcycle for the next 3-5 years and is the world's fastest-growing economy. Hence sooner or later, FIIs should be buyers in India, he said.

Edited excerpts:

Q) On a scale of 1-5 – how to you rate the overall Budget and why? (5 being the best)

A) I would rate the budget at 4 out of 5. The government continued its pro-growth stance and is clearly of the opinion that reviving the investment cycle is important for economic growth and job creation.

Moreover, it was a comprehensive approach by the finance ministry that addressed almost every possible industry.

Q) Where do you see markets headed post Budget 2022? What will be a bigger driving force – US Fed or Budget allocations?

A) Markets should be on an upward trajectory. The government has clearly focused on providing an impetus to the investment and industrial cycle, and this should create a multiplier effect.

The US Fed may cause markets to remain choppy, but budget allocations will drive fundamental economic growth ahead.

Q) How do you see the government managing its fiscal math?

A) The government's estimates of tax receipts and GDP growth is quite conservative. Hence, the fiscal deficit number could actually be much better than what the government is projecting.

Q) Which sectors are likely to benefit the most from Budget 2022 and why?

A) I will be bullish on the cement sector considering the newly introduced seven pillars of the Gati Shakti plan - Roads, Railways, Airports, Ports, Mass Transport, Waterways, and Logistics Infrastructure, which should boost the cement demand in the future.

Also, I see the growth in the Infrastructure sector as the government has focused on Capex and infrastructure growth.

Q) Any announcement you thought it stood out from the Budget speech or document?

A) The Gati Shakti plan is something that stood out as the government formally identified the pillars of infrastructure growth.

Q) How do you see the renewable space in the year 2022 post Budget announcements?&nbsp;

A) Renewables will be a massive area of focus of the government. As India's commitment to the global climate change summit, electric vehicles, solar power, and other alternative sources of energy will play a key role.

Hence participants in these segments would receive incentives from the government. Many PLI schemes have also been announced in this segment.

Q) What is your take on December quarter earnings so far?

A) December quarter earnings have been encouraging. They have been indicating a strong underlying economic growth, albeit with some raw material and energy price inflation. The Indian equity market is restoring and recovering rapidly post 3rd wave of COVID.

Q) FIIs have remained net sellers in the last 3 months at least in the cash segment and January is no different. What is the likely trend – in light of the hike in US Fed rates?

A) FIIs may have been net sellers in the last couple of months, accentuated by the hike in the US Fed interest rates. However, as highlighted by the budget math and economic survey, economic growth in India is robust.

India should be on an upcycle for the next 3-5 years and is the world's fastest-growing economy. Hence sooner or later, FIIs should be buyers in India.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

I will be bullish on the cement sector considering the newly introduced seven pillars of the Gati Shakti plan,&nbsp;Vaibhav Agrawal,&nbsp;CIO, TejiMandi said in an interview with Zeebiz’s Kshitij Anand.


Dalal Street Voice: 7 engines of PM Gati Shakti plan likely to benefit cement sector, says Vaibhav Agrawal of TejiMandi

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika&nbsp;Investmart Ltd says that the chart structure for&nbsp;Sensex&nbsp;is very bullish as it entered a fresh expansion phase after it crossed the 45000 level. 
 
In&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview to ZeeBiz’s Kshitij Anand, Meena highlighted that if the Nifty50 manages to hold 17438, then we can expect a bounce back,&nbsp;but&nbsp;the&nbsp;index needs to cross the 17800 level to gain strength towards 18300-18600 levels.&nbsp;Edited excerpts: 
 
Q) A bullish week for&nbsp;Indian markets&nbsp;in&nbsp;the run-up to Budget and post that as well. Benchmark&nbsp;indices rose over 2%. What led to the price action? 
 
A) The market had witnessed meaningful correction ahead of the Budget on the back of weak global cues therefore the market was very light near the budget. 
 
If we talk about the budget then it was good from the market perspective as there was no negative surprise, therefore, we saw a bullish reaction&nbsp;in&nbsp;the market post-the event. 
 
Global markets&nbsp;also&nbsp;calm down after a sharp fall; additionally, there were too many shorts&nbsp;in&nbsp;the system that&nbsp;also&nbsp;helped&nbsp;in&nbsp;a short-covering rally. 
 
Q)&nbsp;Jefferies'&nbsp;Chris&nbsp;Wood&nbsp;Sees&nbsp;Sensex&nbsp;Hitting&nbsp;1,00,000&nbsp;In&nbsp;5&nbsp;Years. What does your chart check suggest? 
 
A) The bull markets always start with extreme pessimism&nbsp;note and the current bull market was started&nbsp;in&nbsp;March 2020 with so much fear. 
 
The chart structure is&nbsp;also&nbsp;very bullish as&nbsp;Sensex&nbsp;has entered a fresh expansion phase after it crossed the 45000 level. The&nbsp;index is making higher highs and higher lows formation and every consolidation and correction is a good buying opportunity. 
 
The target of 100000&nbsp;in&nbsp;Sensex&nbsp;is easily achievable&nbsp;in&nbsp;the next five&nbsp;years. 
 
Q) Where do you see markets post Budget 2022? What should be the ideal strategy for the coming week? Important levels to track on Nifty and Nifty Bank? 
 
A) The Nifty50 seems to be halting near the 20-DMA after a strong pullback where&nbsp;50-DMA of 17438 is an immediate and important support level. 
 
If the Nifty50 manages to hold&nbsp;this&nbsp;level, then we can expect a bounce back,&nbsp;but&nbsp;the&nbsp;index needs to cross 17800 level to gain strength towards 18300-18600 levels. 
 
If Nifty slips below its&nbsp;50-DMA, then we can expect further weakness where the budget day's low of 17244 will be the next important support level while 17000-16800 is the next demand zone. 
 
Banknifty has a comparatively strong structure where 38500-38200 is a strong demand zone to buy the pullback while if it manages to cross 39500 level then 40200 is the next target level. 
 
On the downside, 37700 is the next important support level; below&nbsp;this, we can expect any major weakness. 
 
Q)&nbsp;In&nbsp;terms of sectors – metals, consumer durable, and pharma rose 4-6%. What led to the price action? 
 
A)&nbsp;This&nbsp;budget and last budget were mainly focused on growth through the manufacturing and&nbsp;infrastructure sector; therefore, we are seeing a sentimental positive impact on the metals and consumer durable sector. 
 
If we talk about the metal sector then commodity stocks tend to do well&nbsp;in&nbsp;inflationary environments whereas contrary to global central banks, China is moving towards an easy monetary policy. 
 
Pharma sector doesn't have any major trigger to outperform; however, they were underperforming for a long time and therefore we are seeing some bargain buying at lower levels while heavyweights like Sun pharma is helping the&nbsp;index to move higher after its strong set of earnings. 
 
Q) Death Cross was observed&nbsp;in&nbsp;Adani Ports, as well as Karnataka Bank? What should&nbsp;investors do? 
 
A) When&nbsp;50-DMA crosses 200-DMA on the downside then it is called Death crossover which is generally considered a negative structure; however, it doesn't work every time because other factors&nbsp;also&nbsp;need to be considered and it is a lagging&nbsp;indicator. &nbsp; 
 
If we talk about Adani Ports, then most of the important moving averages are overlapping with each other around the 740 level and the stock is&nbsp;also&nbsp;volatile around&nbsp;this&nbsp;level. 
 
The stock is forming a Symmetrical Triangle formation and is waiting for a breakout,&nbsp;but&nbsp;there is a good chance of breakout on the upside. If it manages to cross the 760 level, then we can expect a decent rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;counter. 
 
If we talk about Karnataka Bank, then it&nbsp;also&nbsp;has a slightly bullish structure despite a Death crossover. The counter is trading above most of the moving averages however 75 is a critical hurdle; above&nbsp;this, we can expect a positive momentum. 
 
On the downside, 60 is a key support level; below&nbsp;this, we can expect any major weakness. 
 
Q) Any break-out stocks: Top 3 trading strategies for next 3-4 weeks? 
 
A) Technically, we are seeing a breakout&nbsp;in&nbsp;BSE, Speciality Restaurants, and VRL logistics, and these stocks may outperform&nbsp;in&nbsp;the coming weeks. 
 
If we talk about the targets and stop losses then BSE has a target of 2500 with a stop loss of 2100, Speciality has a target of 145 with a stop loss of 105, and VRL logistics has a target of 600 with a stop loss of 490. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article are solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their&nbsp;investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

In&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview to ZeeBiz’s Kshitij Anand, Meena highlighted that if the Nifty50 manages to hold 17438, then we can expect a bounce back,&nbsp;but&nbsp;the&nbsp;index needs to cross the 17800 level to gain strength towards 18300-18600 levels


Not just Jefferies' Chris Wood but this analyst also sees Sensex hitting 100,000 in 5 years

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivered a pragmatic growth-oriented Budget 2022 to boost growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The highlight of Budget 2022 was increase in the capital expenditure outlay by around 35 per cent to Rs 7.5 lakh crore in the financial year 2022-23, and FY23 effective CAPEX is seen at Rs 10.7 lakh crore. In comparison, the CAPEX target in FY22 was set at Rs 5.5 lakh crore.

Higher capital expenditure by the government will put many economy-related as well as consumption sectors in focus, suggest experts. The government announced critical investments and policies for infrastructure development via railways, metro systems, highways primarily through the PM Gati Shakti initiative.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

“This is a Capex boosting budget, which is prudent in other expenditures as the FM looks to contain the fiscal spending while enhancing growth. Therefore, the FM has increased the Capex investment target by 35% to 7.5 lac crore,” Sonam Srivastava, Founder, Wright Research, said.

“Railway and Logistics-linked stocks, Capital Goods, Cement, and Real Estate will gain with this,” she said. FM has focused on Fintech instead of Banking, Electric Vehicles, and Edtech instead of Education, which has brought back focus to the new-age innovative sectors, added Srivastava.

Indian market gave a thumbs up to Budget 2022 as benchmark indices rallied more than 1 per cent on Budget Day. Most sectors closed the day in the green barring oil &amp; gas, auto, and telecom stocks.

The government presented a progressive budget that laid down the foundation of ensuring long term economic growth. It continued with its policy of fiscal prudence and pegged FY22 fiscal deficit at 6.9% while setting a target of 6.4% for FY23 which got a thumbs up from market participants.

The action on D-Street is likely to remain volatile and the movement will be stock specific, suggest experts. Roop Bhootra, CEO, Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares, and Stock Brokers said Capital Goods, Infrastructure, Technology, Digital, Defence and logistics stocks to outperform.

Ashis Sarangi, SEBI registered RIA, Pickright Technologies highlighted that ahead of the Budget 2022 they increased exposure to infra, banks, PSU banks, and power via L&amp;T, IRB, PSU Bank BEES, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank.

We have collated a list of top 20 stock ideas from experts that investors can buy post Budget 2022:

Expert - Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

L&amp;T:

The Union Budget has raised its allocation for capital expenditure to Rs 7.5 lakh crore in 2022-23, up from Rs 5.5 lakh crore in 2021-22.

The government believes the public investment will be necessary to support private investment that will in turn create demand. This will be positive for a company like LT. L&amp;T remains the best play on a capex cycle in India.

UltraTech Cement:

The budget has allocated 480bn for a housing plan, including affordable housing, in urban and rural areas.

UltraTech Cement is in a strong position to gain market share, led by its strong distribution network given government’s thrust on Infrastructure development and recent improvement in housing demand.

DLF:

The government announced the completion of 80 lakh homes to come up by 2023 under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and allocation of Rs 480bn under PMAY urban and rural.

These announcements are expected to help boost the affordable housing market. This is positive for DLF given its strong momentum in both sales bookings and deal additions.

Bharti Airtel:

India will conduct auction of airwaves to ensure telecom operators can launch 5G network by 2023. The government also announced fund allocation to ensure the reach of faster broadband in rural areas.

Bharti’s superior execution quality and consistent subscriber and revenue market share gain will benefit the company.

IRCTC:

India will run 400 new, energy-efficient Vande Bharat trains in the next three years. The railway sector will also see 100 Gati Shakti Cargo terminals, which will be developed in the next three years.

With an eye on farmers, the rail sector will also develop “One Station One Product”, which will leverage local produce carried on the railways. This is positive for IRCTC.

Can Fin Home:

The budget has allocated 480bn for a housing plan, including affordable housing, in urban and rural areas. Can Fin has a strong presence in the small and affordable housing space, coupled with a healthy balance sheet, we expect it to be a big beneficiary.

BEL:

The government has announced 68% of capital for the defence sector to be allocated to the domestic industry in 2022-23. It’s also set aside 25% of its budget in defence research and development (R&amp;D) for collaborating with the private industry.

BEL is well-positioned to benefit from rising defense expenditure, aided by: a) a strong manufacturing base and execution track record, b) its relationship with defense and government agencies, d) its in-house R&amp;D capabilities and e) its higher focus on exports to friendly countries.

Expert: Anuj Jain, CA, Co-founder and Research Head of Green Portfolio Private Limited

Titagarh Wagons &amp; Adani Enterprises:

68% of capital procurement budget for defense will be earmarked for the domestic industry for 2022-23 up from 58% in 2021-22 – Key players to watch out for Adani Enterprises (for their guns/rifles units and aerostructure unit, Titagarh Wagons – for their shipbuilding unit which executing Navy and coast guard orders.)

400 new generation Vande Bharat trains in next 3 years - (Titagarh Wagons is into metro coaches. According to us it is the only listed entity involved in metro coaches manufacturing.).

KNR Construction:

Five DPR of river linking, have been finalized. Big for players like KNR construction which is a good player that could benefit the most.

Vindhya Telelinks &amp; Sterlite Technologies:

Bharatnet project - Contracts to connect all villages and remote areas in 2022-23 with target completion of 2025. (Vindhya tele and Sterlite are potential beneficiaries.)

Expert: Sonam Srivastava, Founder, Wright Research

Infrastructure Stocks - Container Corporation of India, IRB Infra, Dilip Buildcon, Allcargo Logistics

The biggest gainers post-budget will come from the infrastructure-linked sectors and new-age companies.

Container Corporation of India, IRB Infra, L&amp;T, Dilip Buildcon, Allcargo Logistics, Oberoi Realty, India Cements, Ultratech, Honeywells, and Tata Steel.

Tata Power, Amara Raja Borosil Renewables and Adani Green:

Tata Power, Amara Raja, Borosil Renewables, Adani Green are likely to benefit the most from the announcement made on EV theme.

The Finance Minister said that in view of the lack of space in the cities, the government would focus on promoting the battery swapping facility. For this, the government will come up with a battery swapping policy.

The new policy is an attempt to encourage the usage of electric vehicles, part of a larger plan to achieve the subcontinent's decarbonisation goals.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivered a pragmatic growth-oriented Budget 2022 to boost growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.


Kshitij Anand