Gold price crashes Rs 2,300 on MCX, Silver slides nearly Rs 7,000 — Why are precious metals falling?

HDFC Bank shares gain over 2% as chairman appointment clarity boosts sentiment

PM Modi to disburse Rs 2,400 crore PM-VBRY incentives to over 15 lakh beneficiaries on June 19

Crude oil falls over 3% as US-Iran interim deal boosts supply outlook, eases Hormuz concerns

India-UK Trade Deal: Why Indian textile exporters could benefit big—See winners list

After 46% crash in 1 year, Will this Tata Group stock fall or rally? Brokerages divided 

Govt unveils Rs 500 crore incentive scheme for electric ambulances under PM E-DRIVE

Understanding risk is enough for learning all about returns: Smart investor's edge 

The difference between investing and trading 

Stock Market Today: Sensex trades choppy, Nifty below 24,100 - Trent, BEL up 1%, IT stocks fall up to 2.5%

Sanjay Chawla, CIO, Baroda Asset Management Company said that currently, infra theme seems to be tick marking most of the boxes. If the same prevails, then we may see the infra theme growing for many years.

Sanjay has over 35 years of rich experience in fund management, equity research, and management consultancy. His last assignment was with Birla Sun Life AMC as a Senior Fund Manager where he managed multiple schemes with different strategies.

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Chawla said that the Union Budget presented on 1st February 2022 offers capex-led growth in the economy. This could have a multiplier effect down the road and hence might help sustain the momentum in the coming times. Edited excerpts:

Q) What is your take on Budget 2022? Do you think it managed to address the growing needs of Asia’s third-largest economy?

A) This is clearly a growth-oriented budget. The government has prioritized economic growth over fiscal consolidation in the FY2023 Union Budget.

In the post-Covid-era, India had two major challenges – a) ensure adequate employment opportunities, as well as kick, start investment cycle, and b) Being capex oriented the twin objectives are being met.

The government has budgeted a 24 per cent increase in the capital expenditure to Rs 7.5trn for FY2023 with 33 per cent YoY growth in the key sectors of housing, railways, and roads.

This also includes Rs 1trn (vs 150bn FY22) of support to states for capital expenditure. This can positively impact labour generation and consumption at state levels. However, we need to see how states increases their budget for capital expenditure.

Q) Where do you see markets heading post markets – fresh record highs? Any specific target that you have for December 2022 and why?

A) Equity markets over a period of time mirror the underlying economic growth which drives the earnings.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Union Budget presented on 1st February 2022 offers CAPEX-led growth in the economy. This could have a multiplier effect down the road and hence might help sustain the momentum in the coming times.

While Indian equities have outperformed most of the equities markets globally in CY2021, we need to see how it pans out in the coming year.

&nbsp; 
Based on IMF’s forecast, India could continue to be one of the best performing economies in the world even in CY2022.

Q) Will Budget 2022 bring PSU banks under focus as it bets big on infra, which could also mean higher job creation?

A) Infra financing opportunity is likely to be huge and hopefully that should offer opportunity to the entire banking sector - both private and public.

Typically, infra financing requires long-term financing. Hence, only those banks which have the adequate risk appetite to take on such asset financing projects to match their liability franchisee would step forward to do business.

Within PSU banks with comfortable Tier 1 capital, should be able to capitalise on this opportunity too.

I think credit growth has been softening for a while and hit the trough couple of quarters back. Corporates are on deleveraging mode. Hopefully, credit growth may get a leg up once the infra spend picks up.

Clearly, the valuation of PSU Banks have also hit a nadir. With the business environment improving we could see some mean reversion in the sector.

Q) What is Good, Bad, and Ugly on Budget from a stock market perspective?

A) On Budget eve, like every year, expectations were running high which are likely to be bellied. This year was no different. There was hope that there would be some relief to individual taxpayers.

What has spooked the Bond markets is the higher market borrowings. This is likely to crowd out the private sector as well as increase the cost of borrowing. This was visible immediately after the budget presentations when the bond yield went up.

Q) Budget 2022 lays a roadmap for the next 25 years for the economy. Should investors, who invest in 2022 have a 10-20-year time horizon?

A) Stock market investors should always take a long term view. It is very difficult to time markets, considering markets get influenced by both domestic and global markets.

Hence, we always recommend investors to take a 10-15 years view on Mutual fund investments.

Q) What was in store for mutual fund investors post the Budget 2022? Has anything materially changed?

A) There are no direct implications in terms of taxation to MF investors. However, the budget offers a longer runway for growth for the Indian economy.

This seems to have a positive rub off on the Indian equities but a negative impact on Bond markets due to higher borrowings.

Q) Post Budget we saw many thematic funds related to infra being launched by fund houses. Why are fund managers chasing infra as a theme and will it be the theme of next decade?

A) Infra is a cyclical theme. Currently, we believe there is an opportunity for investment across the value chain-Financiers, Engineering companies, EPC contractors, and some of the basic commodity companies.

For the theme to play in long term we need to see the viability of such project sustaining over a period of time.

Secondly, the capital and right cost of finance should be available, and

Finally, the entrepreneur should be willing to assume risk appetite to execute the same.

Currently, infra theme seems to be tick marking most of the boxes. If the same prevails, then we may see the infra theme growing for many years.

Q) Budget has a special focus on renewable and as well as a green themes? How will green bonds help support the infrastructure theme? Will the role of the ESG theme become more prominent?

A) The government had previously laid the groundwork for promoting domestic manufacturing under AtmaNirbhar Bharat and production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for ‘new’ manufacturing industries. It has allocated Rs85 bn for PLI scheme in FY2023BE.

In particular, it has increased the PLI scheme amount for solar PV module manufacturing to Rs240 bn from Rs45 bn earlier.

This will result in all the interested bidders (with a planned capacity of 55 GW) qualifying for the PLI scheme.

We expect a faster transition of India’s electricity sector to solar electricity and help India achieve its medium-term targets for climate change and lower carbon emissions.

FM did mention that as a part of the government’s overall market borrowings in 2022-23, sovereign Green Bonds will be issued for mobilizing resources for green infrastructure.

The issue of Green Bonds will clearly help us achieve our commitments to a low carbon economy.

Q) Any big themes that you think are emerging post Budget 2022?

A) Couple of themes to look from a long-term perspective:

1) Infrastructure. The budget has increased allocation for Roads, housing, and Railways by 33%. This will create demand for cement, metals, trucks

2) EV- Budget talks about creating policy framework for EV infrastructure and battery swapping. While we await details, this should drive shift to EV from a long-term perspective.

3) Budget has allocated Rs 195 bn for PLI scheme for manufacturing of high-efficiency modules, with priority to fully integrated manufacturing units from polysilicon to solar PV modules. This provides support to domestic manufacturers to set up capacity in clean energy.

If I have to conclude on the budget in few words then they would be pragmatic, realistic, and growth-oriented budget.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Sanjay Chawla, CIO, Baroda Asset Management Company said that currently, infra theme seems to be tick marking most of the boxes. If the same prevails, then we may see the infra theme growing for many years.


Dalal Street Voice: Infra, EV and manufacturing themes are long term bets, says Sanjay Chawla of Baroda AMC

Kanika&nbsp;Agarrwal, Co-founder,&nbsp;Upside&nbsp;AI&nbsp;said that our portfolios have been tending to&nbsp;infra-adjacent stocks since October.&nbsp;Cement,&nbsp;power,&nbsp;logistics&nbsp;are&nbsp;the&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;industries&nbsp;we&nbsp;are&nbsp;overweight&nbsp;in. 
 
Kanika&nbsp;has over 11 years&nbsp;of&nbsp;experience&nbsp;in&nbsp;finance and&nbsp;investing, and has worked with companies&nbsp;including Mayfield&nbsp;India, Credit Suisse, and EY.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

In&nbsp;an&nbsp;interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand,&nbsp;Kanika&nbsp;said that&nbsp;the&nbsp;overall, budget continued to signal&nbsp;intent and direction for&nbsp;the&nbsp;government which was positive. Edited excerpts: 
 
Q) What is your take&nbsp;on&nbsp;Budget 2022? Do you think it managed to address&nbsp;the&nbsp;growing needs&nbsp;of&nbsp;Asia’s third-largest economy? 
 
A) This budget was great because it spoke&nbsp;the&nbsp;language&nbsp;of&nbsp;new&nbsp;India and looks to&nbsp;the&nbsp;future. 
 
Plenty&nbsp;of&nbsp;buzzwords - drones, blockchain, crypto, green energy, startups. But it was more than just lip service as&nbsp;the&nbsp;FM’s speech relays&nbsp;the&nbsp;Government’s willingness to work with emerging sectors. 
 
Moves like addressing crypto uncertainty, digital rupee,&nbsp;investment&nbsp;in&nbsp;green energy, committee for startups, limiting surcharge&nbsp;on&nbsp;LTCG&nbsp;are&nbsp;all positive not just for&nbsp;the&nbsp;policies&nbsp;themselves but also for&nbsp;the&nbsp;signal&nbsp;the&nbsp;government is giving us. 
 
Focus&nbsp;on&nbsp;infrastructure,&nbsp;the&nbsp;LIC IPO, updating&nbsp;the&nbsp;IBC&nbsp;are&nbsp;continuing&nbsp;themes from last year.&nbsp;We&nbsp;hope to see more execution&nbsp;on&nbsp;these this year. 
 
Overall, budget continued to signal&nbsp;intent and direction for&nbsp;the&nbsp;government which was positive.&nbsp;The&nbsp;only negative was&nbsp;the&nbsp;lack&nbsp;of&nbsp;tax cuts or relief for consumers and businesses who have suffered greatly&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;last two years. 
 
Q) Where do you see markets heading post budget – fresh record highs? Any specific target that you have for December 2022 and why? 
 
A) Short-term outcomes&nbsp;are&nbsp;like coin tosses. For example, over&nbsp;the&nbsp;last 10 years,&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;month post budget,&nbsp;the&nbsp;market has gone up 50%&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;time. I can give you a prediction and have a 50% chance&nbsp;of&nbsp;being right! 
 
Similarly,&nbsp;the&nbsp;end&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;year is just a waypoint&nbsp;we&nbsp;use to measure market levels. I believe that&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;next 2-3 years, markets will be higher than&nbsp;they&nbsp;are&nbsp;today. But,&nbsp;we&nbsp;do not try and forecast levels for any particular month. 
 
The&nbsp;way to look at equity&nbsp;investing is as part&nbsp;of&nbsp;a larger asset allocation. Equity can be painful and volatile, but it is very important to stay&nbsp;invested with your allocation and ride&nbsp;the&nbsp;wave. 
 
Q)&nbsp;The&nbsp;Budget 2022 bet big&nbsp;on&nbsp;infra which would also mean higher job creation as&nbsp;well as more loans. So, will that bring PSU banks under focus? 
 
A) Our portfolios have been tending to&nbsp;infra-adjacent stocks since October.&nbsp;Cement,&nbsp;power,&nbsp;logistics&nbsp;are&nbsp;the&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;industries&nbsp;we&nbsp;are&nbsp;overweight&nbsp;in. 
 
While&nbsp;we&nbsp;do not&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;PSUs, private sector banks&nbsp;are&nbsp;showing up&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;portfolio after two years. 
 
Q) What is Good, Bad, and Ugly&nbsp;on&nbsp;Budget from a stock market perspective? 
 
A)&nbsp;The&nbsp;budget seemed largely neutral from a market perspective. Positive is that sunrise&nbsp;industries&nbsp;found more mention, like cleantech and EVs. 
 
The&nbsp;intent to commit more to&nbsp;infra is a positive but consistent&nbsp;theme with&nbsp;the&nbsp;government. As always, it all comes down to execution. 
 
One thing that was specifically left out&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;budget talk was&nbsp;the&nbsp;LIC IPO. This will be a super&nbsp;interesting asset – however, given&nbsp;the&nbsp;size,&nbsp;there may be short-term liquidity issues for&nbsp;the&nbsp;markets. 
 
Q) Budget 2022 was tabled that would address&nbsp;the&nbsp;needs&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;economy for&nbsp;the&nbsp;next 25 years.&nbsp;Investors, who&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;2022 should ideally have a time horizon&nbsp;of&nbsp;10-20 years? 
 
A) Even without&nbsp;the&nbsp;budget,&nbsp;the&nbsp;answer is yes. Your short-term&nbsp;investing needs&nbsp;are&nbsp;met by “safer”&nbsp;instruments like liquid funds and FDs. 
 
The&nbsp;last two years notwithstanding, equity should always be seen as a long-term&nbsp;investment that needs time to compound. 
 
Specifically, from where&nbsp;we&nbsp;stand today, I think&nbsp;we&nbsp;are&nbsp;at a unique moment&nbsp;in&nbsp;time.&nbsp;There is so much genuine&nbsp;innovation that can change&nbsp;the&nbsp;landscape&nbsp;of&nbsp;many&nbsp;industries. 
 
Web3 and&nbsp;the&nbsp;power&nbsp;of&nbsp;blockchain, EVs, green energy –&nbsp;these&nbsp;are&nbsp;not&nbsp;incremental changes but can be revolutionary. 
 
But how do you play&nbsp;these&nbsp;themes? At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2021 annual meeting, Buffett pointed out that&nbsp;in&nbsp;one&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;hottest sectors&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;20th century was automobiles and&nbsp;there&nbsp;were over 2000 defunct companies. 
 
In&nbsp;fact, after&nbsp;the&nbsp;2008 meltdown,&nbsp;there&nbsp;were just three left;&nbsp;of&nbsp;which two had been rescued from bankruptcy by&nbsp;the&nbsp;US government. Hence, he&nbsp;went&nbsp;on&nbsp;to say – “...there was a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful&nbsp;industry&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;future.” 
 
Therefore, my advice for&nbsp;the&nbsp;next 20 years: stay&nbsp;invested and diversify. &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) What was&nbsp;in&nbsp;store&nbsp;of&nbsp;mutual fund&nbsp;investors post Budget 2022? Has anything materially changed? 
 
A) I think over&nbsp;the&nbsp;last couple&nbsp;of&nbsp;years, retail has shown up as a mature&nbsp;investor class. After “mutual funds sahi hai,”&nbsp;the&nbsp;next quickest&nbsp;investor education has been “buy&nbsp;the&nbsp;dip.” 
 
You can see this&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;trends&nbsp;of&nbsp;SIPs continuing through market volatility, as&nbsp;well as&nbsp;the&nbsp;increasing participation&nbsp;of&nbsp;retail&nbsp;in&nbsp;trading activity. 
 
There&nbsp;are&nbsp;now many&nbsp;innovative options available to retail outside&nbsp;of&nbsp;just active MFs. For example,&nbsp;Upside&nbsp;AI&nbsp;has partnered with smallcase to give retail&nbsp;investors a different type&nbsp;of&nbsp;exposure to&nbsp;the&nbsp;market. 
 
Similarly, products like ETFs,&nbsp;international funds&nbsp;are&nbsp;other&nbsp;investment avenues that retail did not have access to a few years ago. &nbsp; 
 
Q) Post Budget&nbsp;we&nbsp;saw many&nbsp;thematic funds related to&nbsp;infra being launched by fund houses. Why fund managers&nbsp;are&nbsp;chasing&nbsp;infra as a&nbsp;theme? And, will&nbsp;infra be&nbsp;the&nbsp;theme&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;next decade? 
 
A) Supply&nbsp;of&nbsp;products is a function&nbsp;of&nbsp;demand. Every year&nbsp;there is a&nbsp;theme where a bunch&nbsp;of&nbsp;products&nbsp;are&nbsp;released – pharma, banks and now&nbsp;infra. Like with all&nbsp;themes, this will also follow a cycle&nbsp;of&nbsp;returns and if&nbsp;investors stay&nbsp;invested long enough, law&nbsp;of&nbsp;averages dictates that&nbsp;they should see at least&nbsp;index level returns. 
 
For us at&nbsp;Upside&nbsp;AI,&nbsp;we&nbsp;believe&nbsp;the&nbsp;definition&nbsp;of&nbsp;“fundamentally good” companies constantly changes as market conditions evolve. 
 
In&nbsp;2020 it was chemicals, 2021 saw metals as a&nbsp;theme, and so&nbsp;on.&nbsp;We&nbsp;have built dynamic systems that can adapt to different market conditions and buy stocks that&nbsp;are&nbsp;not&nbsp;only fundamentally good but also&nbsp;in&nbsp;demand. 
 
As I mentioned,&nbsp;we&nbsp;have been&nbsp;overweight&nbsp;infra-adjacent sectors since Oct 2021 so been bullish&nbsp;on&nbsp;this&nbsp;theme for&nbsp;the&nbsp;last six months. &nbsp; &nbsp; 
 
Q) Budget has a special focus&nbsp;on&nbsp;renewable and as&nbsp;well as green&nbsp;theme? How will green bonds help support&nbsp;the&nbsp;infrastructure&nbsp;theme? Will&nbsp;the&nbsp;role&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;ESG&nbsp;theme become more prominent? 
 
A) Green bonds&nbsp;are&nbsp;an attractive&nbsp;theme globally as&nbsp;investors look to park&nbsp;their money&nbsp;in&nbsp;projects that&nbsp;are&nbsp;environmentally conscious. 
ESG is a very important&nbsp;theme for&nbsp;the&nbsp;next decade as businesses figure out how to grow responsibly. Even MFs that have launched ESG&nbsp;themes have done&nbsp;well over&nbsp;the&nbsp;last five years. 
 
India is leading from&nbsp;the&nbsp;front when it comes to renewables. Proceeds from sovereign green bonds should help us grow cleanly, without&nbsp;the&nbsp;carbon&nbsp;intensity&nbsp;of&nbsp;growth that&nbsp;the&nbsp;West had seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;previous decades. 
 
Eventually,&nbsp;the&nbsp;hope is ESG considerations become mainstream enough where&nbsp;there is no need for ESG funds. 
 
Q) What&nbsp;are&nbsp;your plans for 2022? What&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;products and&nbsp;themes&nbsp;are&nbsp;you bullish&nbsp;on? 
 
A)&nbsp;We&nbsp;are&nbsp;very excited to bring our products to retail customers this year, where&nbsp;they can&nbsp;invest as little as Rs 25,000 using&nbsp;Upside’s research models. 
 
As&nbsp;the&nbsp;first step,&nbsp;we&nbsp;have tied up with Smallcase to bring three very unique research products each focusing&nbsp;on&nbsp;different return-risk profiles. 
 
Upside&nbsp;Titans focus&nbsp;on&nbsp;baskets&nbsp;of&nbsp;largecap stocks, Emerging Bluechip is our pure midcap product. Keeping&nbsp;the&nbsp;potential volatility&nbsp;of&nbsp;2022&nbsp;in&nbsp;mind,&nbsp;we&nbsp;have a balanced product called Shockproof to move between equity, debt, and gold to deal with this market volatility. 
 
Similarly,&nbsp;we&nbsp;will soon announce an&nbsp;interesting product for US stocks. 
 
We&nbsp;will continue to&nbsp;invest&nbsp;in&nbsp;these partnerships and bring unique baskets to retail&nbsp;investors this year. 
 
(Disclaimer:&nbsp;The&nbsp;views/suggestions/advices expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this article is solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with&nbsp;their&nbsp;investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Dalal Street Voice:  Kanika Agarrwal of Upside AI bets on India story; remains overweight on cement, power, logistics

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd which has been an underperformer rose a little over 10 per cent in last 1 year compared to 12 per cent upside seen in the Nifty50, and over 3 per cent gain was seen in the S&amp;P BSE Auto index.

The auto stock with a market capitalization of more than Rs 2.5 lakh cr hit a 52-week high of Rs 9022 on 10 February but the trend went sideways post that amid muted global cues and selling by foreign investors.

WATCH | Click on Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

The stock rallied over 4 per cent in the last one month, and nearly 14 per cent in the last 3 months. The Budget 2022 also had plenty of opportunities for the auto sector.

The stock has formed an Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern on the weekly charts. It managed to breach the neckline on the upside placed at Rs 8320 in the last week of January which opened room for a fresh 52-week high above Rs 9022. A close above Rs 9022 will take the auto stock towards Rs 10,000, suggest experts.

An inverted Head and Shoulder pattern is formed when the price falls to a trough and then rises, in the second wave, the price fall below the previous trough and then rises. And, finally, the price falls but not as much as the second trough.

A breakout happens when the price starts rising after hitting the trough and breakout on the upside above the resistance level.

&nbsp;

[[{"fid":"175510","view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":417,"width":847,"class":"media-element file-default"},"link_text":null}]]

The scrip chart belongs to the&nbsp;auto&nbsp;sector which was in a rational uptrend for the calendar year 2020 and which was followed by a rather sideways tranche for the better part of 2021 (9 months), till October 2021. 
 
The benchmark index, Nifty topped out in October 2021, while the&nbsp;Auto&nbsp;Index was in a lag of around a month that saw it claw to all-time highs. 
 
The sector has been in a sideways tranche from thereon but seems mature &amp; poised of new all-time highs, suggest experts. 
 
“Unlike the sectoral structure, which has been in a sideways tranche for last 3 months; Maruti has been in a clear outperformance mode. Maruti stock price not just a 52-week high last week but vaulted to highest since August 2018,” Pushkaraj Sham Kanitkar, VP (Equities)&nbsp;at&nbsp;GEPL Capital Ltd, said. 
 
“It can be&nbsp;seen&nbsp;from the chart, the longer-term chart of Maruti has&nbsp;formed an&nbsp;Inverted&nbsp;Head&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;Shoulder&nbsp;pattern, that is quiet popular amongst both, traders as well as&nbsp;technical&nbsp;analysts,” he said. 
 
The chart recently broke up above the neckline around 8320 and sustained well above that, in spite of the lull in the broader markets. The more interesting portion is the symmetrical&nbsp;formations that the chart is showing. 
 
“While a daily close above 8360 has helped the prices to kick in momentum till all-time highs of almost 10000, a move past 9050, will further add fuel to raise it above the recent high,” highlights Kanitkar. 
 
“The projected implications will see it beyond all-time HIGHs&nbsp;at&nbsp;12150 with a&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;projection interface for the&nbsp;inverted&nbsp;H&amp;S. An initial stop loss&nbsp;should be placed somewhere below 7800; the current 50 DMA,” he recommends. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

&nbsp;

The stock rallied over 4 per cent in the last one month, and nearly 14 per cent in the last 3 months.&nbsp;


Technical Check: Underperformer Maruti Suzuki sees Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern formation; know what it means?

The Indian market has officially turned negative for the year 2022 largely weighed down by geopolitical tensions, rise in crude oil prices, heightened fears of an aggressive monetary tightening, and selling by foreign investors.

Analysts gave a thumbs up to Budget 2022 but rising geopolitical concerns brought bears back on D-Street after a strong rally seen in 2021.

The Nifty50 is down by 9.4 per cent from the recent high of 18604 recorded in October 2021 while the S&amp;P BSE Sensex plunged nearly 6000 points from the high of 62,245 recorded in October 2021.

What led to the fall?

Indian market plunged by about 3 per cent on Monday weighed down by weak global cues. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex dropped more than 1700 points while the Nifty50 closed below 17000 levels.

The manic Monday eroded more than Rs 8.5 lakh cr of investors’ wealth in a single trading session on the BSE, data showed.

Tracking losses in Asian and world markets bears remained in control of the Indian market amid warnings that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time.

Rise in geopolitical tensions drove oil prices to seven-year peaks and sent investors scuttling back to the safe-haven government bonds.

Also Read: US, Europe, Asian stocks skittled by Ukraine fears, oil scales 7-year peak 
https://www.zeebiz.com/world/news-us-europe-asian-stocks-skittled-by-ukraine-fears-oil-scales-7-year-peak-safe-haven-bonds-back-in-favour-178843

Risk sentiment was further dampened ahead of the US Fed’s emergency meeting which heightened fears of aggressive monetary tightening, suggest experts.

“It is almost certain that the US-Fed will start raising rates as early as March, with up to 7 rate hikes in 2022. The US-Fed will also stop easing in March 2022, which implies that their balance sheet will start declining from April 2022,” Vineet Bagri, Managing Partner- TrustPlutus Wealth, said.

“This will cause a squeeze in liquidity conditions, in both supply and price. All this has made market participants wary, and they have started closing open positions and cutting leverage, which is causing a selloff in the markets,” he said.

What should investors do?

The fall in stock prices indeed makes Nifty50 and many stocks attractive at current levels, but experts advise investors to wait for clarity to emerge as markets are likely to remain volatile for some more time.

The Nifty50 is trading at a P/E ratio of 22.68x, and a Price-to-Book value of 4.38x. The P/E has fallen from the peak of 25x recorded in January 2022, data from Trendlyne showed.

“Amid rising global uncertainties and the current ongoing assembly polls, one should tread with caution. A short-term bearish bias should be maintained and the focus must be on preserving capital,” Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities, said.

“Investors having a long-term horizon should wait for markets to stabilize and initiate fresh investments only in companies having strong earnings visibility, good balance sheet strength and a reasonable valuation,” added Shah.

Geopolitical issues have added to global uncertainties arising from surge in inflationary pressures globally. Crude oil surged to over 7-year high level leading to hardening of bond yields in developed markets.

Given the situation, there is outflow of foreign investments from emerging markets in general and India in particular given the dependence on imports for energy, suggest experts.

Foreign investors (FIIs) have pulled out around Rs 10,000 from the cash segment of Indian markets so far in February, data showed.

“We believe that near-term challenges could continue to keep markets volatile. However, it appears to be an opportunity from investors' perspective keeping in mind the expectations of a multi-year upcycle in Indian economy over the next 3 to 5 years,” Gaurav Dua, Head Capital Market Strategy, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

“Quality matters in a corrective phase and investors do not need to get too worried about investing in good structural growth companies with a proven track record. On the other hand, the caution needs to be exercised in broader markets where the damage can be extensive for a prolonged period of time,” he said.

Technical Factors:

The Nifty50 failed to hold on to 17000 crucial supports on Monday. The index is now trading below crucial short-term moving averages such as 30,50-Days Moving Average, and the next big support is placed at 200-DMA placed at 16788.

“The Nifty index has been trading with the support of 200 DMA, which points out immediate support in the counter. At present, the Index has support at 16800/16650 levels while resistance comes at 17100 levels,” Sachin Gupta, AVP, Research at Choice Broking, said.

“On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 36370 levels while resistance 37600 at levels,” added Gupta.

If the index breaches 200-DMA on the downside then a fall towards 16400 could be in the offing, suggest experts.

“Nifty did manage to close above its 200 DMA, but this will act as a crucial immediate support zone tomorrow. However, if that is breached, a retest of levels of 16,400 cannot be ruled out,” said Shah of Samco Securities.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

​The Indian market has officially turned negative for the year 2022 largely weighed down by geopolitical tensions, rise in crude oil prices, heightened fears of an aggressive monetary tightening, and selling by foreign investors.


Nifty50 down by about 10% from highs! Time to buy the dip or wait before initiating fresh positions?

Despite benchmark indices remaining volatile in January and closing with mild losses ahead of Budget 2022, fund managers preferred to buy the dip, and retail investors reaffirmed their faith in Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs).

Equity mutual funds recorded a net sum of Rs 14,888 crore in January, making it the 11th consecutive monthly net inflow.

However, the data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) suggested that this was much lower than the net inflow witnessed in December which was Rs 25,077 crore.

<a href="https://www.zeebiz.com/market-news/news-equity-mutual-funds-record-inflow-of-rs-1488-cr-in-january-lower-than-rs-2507-cr-in-december-amfi-178433">Also Read: Equity mutual funds record inflow of Rs 14,888 cr in January</a>

The equity schemes have been witnessing net inflow since March 2021 and the segment has received a net inflow of over Rs 1 lakh crore during this period highlighting the positive sentiments among investors, said a PTI report.

Before this, such schemes had consistently witnessed outflows for eight months from July 2020 to February 2021 losing Rs 46,791 crore.

“The Indian equity markets have been witnessing a correction in tandem with the Global markets. Factors like the possibility of a FED rate hike, a slowdown in China and the growing concern between Ukraine and Russia have led to decline in the global equity markets,” Kavitha Krishnan, Senior Analyst - Manager Research, Morningstar India, said.

“Most of the investors continued to find the correction in the market as good entry point, which is evidenced by the quantum of fund mobilised, which stood at INR 33234.21 crores in January 2022 as compared to INR 43,579.50 crores in December,” added Krishnan.

The average under management (AUM) of the industry rose to Rs 38.88 lakh crore at January-end from Rs 37.72 lakh crore at December-end.

Monthly SIP Contribution collected at Rs 11,516.62 crores is at an all-time high. Dec 2021 registered 11,305.34 crores, AMFI data showed.

SIP AUM at the end of January 2022 stood at Rs 5.7 lakh cr, and the number of SIP accounts stood all-time high in January 2022 at 5,04,84,467 compared to 4,90,78,547 in December 2021.

“Fund investor confidence in the India Growth story, as reflected through continued all time higher quantum of monthly SIP flows and with economy expected to rise at projected 9.2 per cent, has overshadowed the uncertainties arising out of external factors like Fed Rate hike or FII outflows,” N S Venkatesh, Chief Executive, AMFI, said.

We have collated a list of stocks from the ICICIdirect report in which fund managers bought and sold the most across large, mid, and smallcap space. Socks above Rs 50 crore holding were considered:

Largecap:

<img alt="image" src="https://i.ibb.co/RQtCYpb/image.png" />

Fund managers across AMC raised stakes in stocks like Havells India, Vedanta, InterGlobe Aviation, Apollo Hospitals, Tech Mahindra, Tata Power, IndusInd Bank, and Dabur India.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Selling was seen in stocks like Indus Tower, HDFC AMC, SAIL, IRCTC, Zomato, JSW Steel, and Pidilite Industries etc.

Midcap:

<img alt="image" src="https://i.ibb.co/Bw4v08R/image.png" />

Fund managers across AMC raised stakes in stocks like Bandhan Bank, Tata Communications, Aditya Birla Capital, Tata Chemicals, PNB, LIC Housing Finance, etc.

Selling was seen in stocks like GMR Infrastructure, Bank of India, Colgate Palmolive India, Laurus Labs, ICICI Securities, and NMDC, etc. among others.

Smallcap:

<img alt="image" src="https://i.ibb.co/0Dw6KhR/image.png" />

Fund managers across AMC raised stakes in stocks like Rain Industries, Hindustan Copper, Indiabulls Housing Finance, IDFC, and NBCC India.

Selling was seen in stocks like CE Info Systems, PTC India, Granules India, Oriental Hotels, Latent View, Hathway Cable etc.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Despite benchmark indices remaining volatile in January and closing with mild losses ahead of Budget 2022, fund managers preferred to buy the dip, and retail investors reaffirmed their faith in Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs).


Top 10 stocks that fund managers bought, sold in January from large, mid & small cap space

It was a bloodbath on D-Street as bears took control and pushed benchmark indices below crucial support levels. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex fell more than 1700 points while the Nifty50 failed to hold on to 17000 levels.

Sectoral selling pressure was seen in realty, metals, banks, finance, and telecom stocks. The S&amp;P BSE Mid-cap index and the S&amp;P BSE Small-cap indices were down 3-4 per cent respectively.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

Stocks that were in focus include Tata Power that closed with losses of over 5 per cent, HDFC Ltd fell over 5 per cent and HDFC Life hit a fresh 52-week low and closed with losses of more than 6 per cent on Monday.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Here's what Jatin Gohil, Technical Analyst at Reliance Securities, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today:

Tata Power: Recommendation: Buy on dips | Target: Rs 260

After a sharp up-move took place between late-September 2021 and mid-October 2021 (i.e. from Rs131 to Rs 268), it oscillated in the wide range (Rs 255-205).

On 14 February 2022, the stock tested its long-term moving average 100-day SMA and erased partial intraday loss before closing the session.

Its daily RSI is negatively poised and tested the bull market support zone (40-33). In late-December 2021, its daily RSI (Relative Strength Index)reversed after testing the bull market support zone and supported a healthy rebound in the stock.

We believe history repeats itself and the stock will rebound after a near-term decline. On the lower side, the stock will find support around its psychological level Rs 200.

However, a stable move above its upper band of the range (Rs 255) will help it test its lifetime-high initially and explore uncharted territory subsequently.

HDFC Ltd: Recommendation: Sell on rise | Target: Rs 2,110

On 14 February 2022, the stock violated its medium-term support zone (Rs 2,380-2,354) and slipped to a 52-week low of Rs 2,290.

The key technical indicators are negatively poised on short-term and medium-term timeframe charts.

This could drag the stock towards Rs 2,190-2,155-2,110 in the medium-term. On the higher side, the stock will face hurdle around the Rs 2,450-2,500 zone.

HDFC Life: Recommendation: Buy on dips | Target: Rs 650

Continuing its prior falling trend the stock tested its medium-term support zone, which was placed around Rs 550.

Short-term major moving averages are sloping downwards on the medium-term timeframe chart, while long-term moving averages are sloping upwards.

Its medium-term technical indicators are negatively poised and tested dip oversold zone.

We believe the stock will rebound after a short-term decline. This could lead the stock towards Rs620 initially and Rs650 subsequently.

On the lower side, the stock will find support around Rs530-510 zone.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

It was a bloodbath on D-Street as bears took control and pushed benchmark indices below crucial support levels. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex fell more than 1700 points while the Nifty50 failed to hold on to 17000 levels.


Buy, Sell or Hold: What should investors do with Tata Power, HDFC and HDFC Life?

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said that there are many stocks in the small-cap segment where retail exuberance is driving stock prices to unjustifiable irrational levels.

In an interview, Gupta said that in the event of a big market correction, investors in penny stocks will lose heavily and may even lose even their capital.

Edited excerpts:

Q) Market closed with a loss of nearly 1% amid volatility. What led to the price action?

A) Markets have turned highly volatile, responding to alternate bouts of selling and buying. FIIs have been selling continuously and bears have been going short on stocks/segments where FII's holdings are large, and they expect FIIs to sell more.

DIIs, on the other hand, are buying aggressively, absorbing almost all of FII selling and retail investors too are buyers on dips. These alternate bouts of selling and buying are causing heightened volatility.

Q) The RBI governor referred Cryptos to Tulipmania (a speculative bubble). I am there are a lot of stocks that might be moving on hype as if there is no tomorrow. How can one spot these stocks and make an informed decision?

A) The RBI Governor has been warning against investors dabbling in cryptos since cryptos don't have any intrinsic value. It is like the Tulip mania.

There are many stocks too, particularly in the small-cap segment, where retail exuberance is driving stock prices to unjustifiable irrational levels.

Newbie retail investors are buying penny stocks and even stocks of companies in the liquidation process. This irrational mania happens in all bull markets.&nbsp;&nbsp;

In the event of a big market correction, investors in these stocks will lose heavily. Investors in penny stocks may lose even their capital.

The only solution to this problem is avoiding low-grade stocks and buying high-quality stocks. But newbie retail investors, unfortunately, don't do that.

Q) What is your view on Sensex, Nifty for the coming week. Key levels and any big events to watch out for?

A) From April 2020 to November 2021, markets were in a one-way street, steadily going up. This one-way rally has ended. 
US inflation has surprised on the upside and now the Fed is expected to raise rates by at least four times in 2022. US 10-year bond yield has surged past 2 percent.

This is a negative for equity markets. For India, Brent crude at $95 is a major macro headwind.

Q) Sectorally, the action was seen in metal space while the realty and capital goods sector close in the red. What led to the price action?

A) Daily price action does not indicate any trend. Profit booking can lead to correction in prices even when the stock/sector is doing well.

Q) Banking stock got a boost from RBI policy on Thursday and NiftyBank reclaimed 39000. What are your views on the banking space?

A) Financials, particularly banking, has the potential to outperform the market this year. Banks were underperforming since April 2020 on asset quality concerns.

But, asset quality has not deteriorated as much as feared. The credit cycle is picking up and profitability is improving as indicated by the Q3 results. Investment in high-quality banking stocks is advisable now.

Q) These top 4-5 stocks are trading near oversold levels according to RSI and MFI. Should one look at buying the falling knife?

A) High-quality companies with earnings visibility can be bought on declines. High-quality banking stocks are reasonably valued; high-quality IT stocks have high valuations but good earnings visibility. Both these segments can be bought on declines.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said that there are many stocks in the small-cap segment where retail exuberance is driving stock prices to unjustifiable irrational levels.


Retail exuberance is driving penny stocks to irrational levels: Dr. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services

One in three Portfolio Management schemes (PMSs) managed to outperform benchmark indices in volatile January when both Sensex, and Nifty50 scummed to selling pressure amid weak global cues.

Even though small &amp; midcap stocks underperformed benchmark indices in January but fund managers running scheme with a small &amp; midcap as a central theme gave positive results, data from PMS Bazaar showed.

Indian market closed with a negative bias in January in the run up to Union Budget 2022. The fall can be attributed to selling by foreign investors, rise in crude oil prices, as well as uncertainty around the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting as well as future commentary on rates.

The Nifty50 fell 0.09 per cent while the S&amp;P BSE Sensex was down by 0.41 per cent in January while mid &amp; small cap index underperformed in the same period.

The S&amp;P BSE Mid-cap index fell 1.4 per cent, and the S&amp;P BSE Small-cap index was down 0.78 per cent in the same period.&nbsp;&nbsp;

As many as 33 per cent or 88 schemes out of 268 which have declared their monthly numbers for January gave positive returns, data from PMS Bazaar showed.

Image 1

[[{"fid":"175404","view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":280,"width":929,"class":"media-element file-default"},"link_text":null}]]

Portfolio management services or PMS cater to high-net-worth investors and the professional fee charged by them is higher than regular mutual funds.

However, it varies from scheme to scheme. As per SEBI norms, a PMS account can be opened and held, with a minimum corpus of Rs 50 lakhs.

The broader market indices underperformed but at least 7 out of the top 10 schemes which gave more than 5 per cent return in January are from the small &amp; midcap space.

ValueQuest Investment Advisor’s Platinum strategy which is a multicap theme gave 9.7 per cent returns in January. With over 2 decades of experience, Ravindra Dharamshi manages two multicap schemes.

The portfolio strategy is revolved around making a core portfolio that will be complemented with young, new to the market, turnaround stocks &amp; special situation opportunities. The investment time frame will be rolling 1-3 years.

Spark Fund Manager Cor and Satellite Fund rose over 6 per cent, followed by Green Portfolio’s MNC Advantage and Super 30 strategy funds which are both thematic funds.

The MNC Advantage strategy aims at investing in growing MNC companies which are available at a reasonable valuation. The companies selected usually have moats of having a strong global presence and access to global business.

Super 30 strategy is to provide a high reward but with a higher than usual risk. The businesses chosen in this fund are turnarounds that lead to a spike in performance due to a special situation forming such as a change in key management, M&amp;A, deleveraging, etc. Time horizon 3 years.

Underperformers:

There are 180 PMSes out of 268 schemes gave negative returns in January compared to 0.09 per cent fall seen in the Nifty50.

Alder Capital’s B2C Growth strategy fell more than 11 per cent in January, PMSBazaar data showed. It is a multi-cap strategy that invests in listed consumption B2C businesses that are scalable, have a competitive advantage, and demonstrate management culture.

Stallion Asset’s Core Fund delivered more than 9 per cent, followed by Shepherd Hill Financial Advisors LLP Value Magno which was down nearly 8 per cent, and Right Horizon’s Perennial strategy that was down over 7 per cent.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)&nbsp;&nbsp;

The Nifty50 fell 0.09 per cent while the S&amp;P BSE Sensex was down by 0.41 per cent in January while mid &amp; small cap index underperformed in the same period.


One in three PMS Schemes outperformed Nifty in January 2022; Ravindra Dharamshi scheme rose nearly 10%

Laurus Labs Ltd rallied by&nbsp;about 50 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last one year compared to over 14 per cent&nbsp;upside&nbsp;seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50&nbsp;and 17 per cent gain seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the S&amp;P BSE 200&nbsp;index&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period. 
 
The&nbsp;pharma&nbsp;company with&nbsp;a&nbsp;market capitalization of more than Rs 29000 cr hit&nbsp;a&nbsp;52-week high of Rs 723.55 on the BSE on 12&nbsp;August&nbsp;and the trend turned sideways post&nbsp;August.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;fell by nearly 40 per cent from the high to find support near 450 levels&nbsp;in&nbsp;November before bouncing back. 
 
Laurus Labs is principally engaged&nbsp;in&nbsp;offering&nbsp;a&nbsp;broad&nbsp;and&nbsp;integrated portfolio of&nbsp;Active&nbsp;Pharmaceuticals&nbsp;Ingredients (API)&nbsp;including&nbsp;intermediates, Generic Finished dosage forms (FDF),&nbsp;and Contract Research services to cater to the needs of the global&nbsp;pharmaceutical&nbsp;industry. 
 
The recent price&nbsp;action suggests that bulls have taken control&nbsp;and pushed it back&nbsp;above the 200-Days EMA placed&nbsp;around Rs 520 which is&nbsp;a&nbsp;positive sign for bulls. 
 
The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;also formed&nbsp;a&nbsp;double&nbsp;bottom&nbsp;reversal&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;which suggests more&nbsp;upside&nbsp;in&nbsp;the offing that could take it towards Rs 640-660 levels translates&nbsp;into&nbsp;an&nbsp;upside&nbsp;of 20 per cent from Rs 550 recorded on 11 February&nbsp;in&nbsp;the next&nbsp;6-9&nbsp;months, suggest experts. 
 
A&nbsp;double&nbsp;bottom&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;signifies&nbsp;a&nbsp;potential change&nbsp;in&nbsp;the trend. It is formed when the price of the underlying which could be&nbsp;an&nbsp;index or&nbsp;a&nbsp;stock&nbsp;drop&nbsp;and then rebounds. The&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;repeats&nbsp;again&nbsp;in&nbsp;which price drops&nbsp;and then rebounds&nbsp;and breaches the breakout level on the&nbsp;upside.

[[{"fid":"175399","view_mode":"default","type":"media","attributes":{"height":490,"width":846,"class":"media-element file-default"},"link_text":null}]]

“Stock&nbsp;price touched&nbsp;a&nbsp;high of 723&nbsp;in&nbsp;mid-August last year&nbsp;and then declined to touch low of 440. Over the last three&nbsp;and half&nbsp;months&nbsp;it has formed&nbsp;a&nbsp;bullish&nbsp;double&nbsp;bottom&nbsp;reversal&nbsp;pattern&nbsp;on the daily chart between 440-555 odd levels,”&nbsp;Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Equity Research, Sanctum Wealth, said. 
 
“Bounce&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;from the 2nd low has been on high volumes&nbsp;indicating&nbsp;accumulation&nbsp;at lower levels,” he said. 
 
Currently, the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;is trading&nbsp;at the breakout level. Looking&nbsp;at the price structure&nbsp;and volumes&nbsp;action&nbsp;stock&nbsp;is likely to see&nbsp;a&nbsp;breakout on the&nbsp;upside. 
 
“The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;can be bought&nbsp;at current levels&nbsp;and on dips to 535 with&nbsp;a&nbsp;stop loss of 515 for the target of 640-660&nbsp;in&nbsp;the coming&nbsp;6-9&nbsp;months,” recommends Chaturmohta. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article&nbsp;are solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their&nbsp;investment&nbsp;advisers before making&nbsp;any financial decision.)

Laurus Labs Ltd rallied by&nbsp;about 50 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last one year compared to over 14 per cent&nbsp;upside&nbsp;seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50&nbsp;and 17 per cent gain seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the S&amp;P BSE 200&nbsp;index&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period


Technical Check: This pharma stock records a bullish double bottom reversal pattern; 20% upside possible in 6-9 months

Indian market closed with a loss of more than 1 per cent on Friday pushing Nifty and Sensex towards crucial support levels. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex fell more than 700 points while the Nifty50 closed below 17400.

Sectorally, selling pressure was seen in IT, consumer durables, realty and telecom stocks. The S&amp;P BSE Mid-cap index closed 1.8 per cent lower while the S&amp;P BSE Small-cap index fell nearly 2 per cent.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

Stocks that were in focus include JSW Energy which closed with gains of 5 per cent, Zomato fell over 6 per cent and InterGlobe Aviation rose over 1 per cent on Friday.

Here's what Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities Ltd, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today:

JSW Energy: Buy

For the last couple of months, the stock has been hovering between 290 to 315 price ranges. On last Thursday, the stock not only clear the resistance of 315 but succeed to close above the same which was broadly positive.

Post the breakout, it has maintained breakout continuation formation and on Friday despite weak market conditions, it rallied nearly 5 percent.&nbsp;&nbsp;

A promising price-volume range breakout formation indicates a strong possibility of the further uptrend from current levels.

For the breakout traders now, 325 and 330 would act as a trend decider level. Above which the JSW Energy Ltd. could hit the level of 360-370.

Zomato: Sell

After a sharp fall, from 135 to 90 the stock is consolidating within the range of 85 to 95 price range.

On the daily and intraday charts, the stock consistently faced selling pressure at a higher level, and it also formed a lower top formation which is broadly negative for Zomato Ltd.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Direction-wise, the trend is still on the downside, and only after the level of 93, a fresh pullback rally possible. On the other side, below 93 the correction wave is likely to continue till 85-81.

InterGlobe Aviation: Buy

After a short-term correction, the stock took the support near the 200-Day SMA and reversed sharply. In this month so far, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd has rallied over 21 percent.

In addition, on daily and weekly charts, the stock has formed a robust breakout continuation formation.

For the swing traders, 2180 and 2200 would be the important level to watch out. Above the same, the uptrend wave will persist till 2350.

Further upside may also continue which could lift the stock up to 2450. On the flip side, below 2180 bulls may prefer to exit out from trading long positions.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

&nbsp;

Indian market closed with a loss of more than 1 per cent on Friday pushing Nifty and Sensex towards crucial support levels. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex fell more than 700 points while the Nifty50 closed below 17400.

&nbsp;


Buy, Sell or Hold: What should investors do with JSW Energy, Zomato and InterGlobe Aviation?

Sachin Gupta, AVP, research, Choice Broking said that the Nifty is trading in a wide range from 17000-17600 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 16,800 levels and the resistance is placed at 17780 levels.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Gupta said the key events that investors should watch out for next week are WPI Data, Trade Balance &amp; US FOMC minutes. Edited excerpts:

Q) Market closed near crucial support levels amid volatility. What led to the price action?

A) Overall, it was a roller-coaster week for the traders as we witnessed momentum in both directions.

After the initial two days of sell-off, the market recovered from the weekly lows and went down again on the last trading day of the week.

The Nifty50 closed at 17374.75 levels while Bank Nifty closed at 38,517.25 levels with a loss of 0.7% on a weekly basis.

On the sectoral front, Nifty Metal gained more than 3.5% while the rest of the indices closed in the red. The Nifty Realty &amp; FMCG dragged almost 2.5% on a weekly basis.

On the stock front, Tata Steel, Vedanta has contributed more than 6% gains, Coal India, Hindalco, and IndusInd Bank also added 3% gains on a weekly basis while on the other side, Indiabulls Housing Finance, GAIL were the prime laggards.

On the technical front, the index has formed a Doji kind of Candlestick on a weekly chart that points out indecisiveness among the traders.

Furthermore, the index is trading below the middle band of Bollinger which suggests downside movement in the counter.

Moreover, the daily momentum indicator Stochastic as well as MACD is also trading with negative crossover. At present, the index has support at 17040 levels while resistance comes at 17650 levels.

Q) What is your view on Sensex, Nifty for the coming week. Key levels and any big events to watch out for?

A) This was a volatile week. After an upside momentum, we have seen selling at the end of the week.

&nbsp;Technically, Sensex has strong support near 56,400. If the index manages to sustain above the same, then the upside momentum could continue towards 59600 which is also the next resistance level.

A close above 59,600 could push the index towards 60,300.

The Nifty is trading in a wide range from 17000-17600 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 16,800 level and the resistance is placed at 17780 levels.

Events to watch out for next week are WPI Data, Trade Balance &amp; FOMC data.

Q) Sectorally, the action was seen in the metal space while the realty and capital goods sector closed in the red. What led to the price action?

A) After the budget, the Metal index rallied more than 8% in the last two weeks as the finance minister proposed some relaxation to steel scrap.

During the week, the index rose 3.8% ahead of positive global cues while Nifty Realty &amp; Capital goods witnessed further profit booking.

Technically, the Metal index is still looking bullish as compared to Realty &amp; Capital Goods and Metal stocks may continue the upside move for the coming weeks.

Stocks like Tata Steel, Hindalco, Jindal Steel &amp; NMDC have performed well and looks more attractive for the coming sessions -- which may keep the metal index in the leading position.

On the downside, the index has support around 5730 while resistance comes at 6315 levels.

Q) These top 4-5 stocks are trading near oversold levels according to RSI and MFI. Should one look at buying the falling knife?

A)

Kansai Nerolac Paints: Buy on dips| Target 530-550

On a weekly chart, the stock has given a breakdown from the Horizontal Line and traded below it. Moreover, the stock has also moved below Lower Bollinger Band formation, which indicates further bearishness for the near term.

However, the RSI &amp; Stochastic has been moving in an oversold zone that suggests fresh buying from the bottom.

Hence, we are expecting to buy around 470/460 levels for the upside target of 530/550. However, on the downside the support comes at 425 levels.

UTI AMC: Buy on dips| Target Rs 970-1020

After a continued fall, the stock has taken a support at 50% FR and reversed from there. The price has been rising since the last three trading sessions on the daily chart, which suggests further upside in the stock.

Moreover, the stock has also reversed from Lower Bollinger Band formation and moved above 9-days SMA. A momentum indicator such as RSI &amp; Stochastic has turned up from the oversold territory with a positive crossover, which indicates fresh buying for the near term.

Hence, we are recommending buying in UTI AMC around 840/800 levels for the upside target of 970/1020 levels. However, on the lower side, the stock may find around 750 levels.

Jubilant Pharmova: Buy on dips| Target Rs 500-540

The stock is in a bearish trend and falling down since June 21. On the daily time frame, the stock has confirmed the trendline breakdown and moved below Ichimoku Cloud formation, which suggests more downside in the near term.

However, all the supportive indicators are moving in oversold territory, which suggests a reversal, but price action is still negative.

Hence, we are recommending a 'buy on dips' strategy in the stock. So, one can look to buy around 425 or fall in the prices till 400 levels for the upside potential 500/540 levels meanwhile, the stock may also find support around 370 levels.

Q) Banking stock got a boost from RBI policy on Thursday and NiftyBank reclaimed 39000. What are your views on banking space?

A) After the MPC meeting, held on Thursday, the BankNifty crossed 39000 but was unable to hold level, and later we witnessed a further correction.

At present, the Banking index has been trading above Middle Bollinger Band formation &amp; 50-days SMA on the daily chart. The support is placed at 37200 and resistance is lying at 39500 levels in the near term, crossing above the same will confirm the fresh breakout for the target of 40500/41000 levels.&nbsp;&nbsp;

On the stock front, IndusInd Bank suggests a bullish overview as it is sustaining above a 50-Days simple moving average (SMA).

A momentum indicator such as RSI and MACD also confirms the bullish view with the price action. The support is placed at 925 and resistance comes at 1050.

Also, Bank of Baroda is continuing its upward trend and trading above 200 days simple moving averages.

The stock has given the breakout of Inverted Head &amp; Shoulder Patterns on the daily timeframe. The support is placed at 103 while resistance is at 124 in the near term.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

&nbsp;

Sachin Gupta, AVP, research, Choice Broking said that the Nifty is trading in a wide range from 17000-17600 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 16,800 levels and the resistance is placed at 17780 levels.

&nbsp;


Catch the falling knife! Top 3 stocks that are good buy on dips in a volatile market

Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com said that investors should review company’s performance regularly which will help investors to make informed decisions.

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Jain said that when markets correct low-quality stocks result in a dent in the portfolio, and hence, one should stick to quality when it comes to investing in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. Edited excerpts:

Q) Market closed with a loss of nearly 1%. What led to the price action?

A) Post the RBI Policy on Thursday it seemed that the markets were geared for a resumption of the positive momentum as the Nifty as well the Bank Nifty index reacted positively.

However, as the event was over, the focus shifted back to global cues which saw a sell-off in equities due to the rising U.S. Bond yields.

Our markets too witnessed selling pressure due to this on Friday, which resulted in a broader market sell-off.

Q) The RBI governor referred Cryptos to Tulipmania (a speculative bubble). I am there are a lot of stocks that might be moving on hype as if there is no tomorrow. How can one spot these stocks and make an informed decision?

A) Bull market usually leads to buying in the large-cap stocks first, but when the bull market matures and moves towards its end phase, traders and investors are more attracted towards low quality or penny stocks as they get attractive returns there in a short period of time.

However, when markets correct, such stocks result in a dent in the portfolio, and hence, one should stick to quality when it comes to investing in mid-cap and small-cap stocks.

Reviewing the company’s performance regularly is a necessary approach that helps investors to make informed decisions.

Q) What is your view on Sensex, Nifty for the coming week. Key levels and any big events to watch out for?

A) If we meticulously observe the recent price momentum in Nifty, then we could see the formation of ‘Lower Tops’ and ‘Higher Bottoms’.

The Nifty50 recently formed a high around 18300 first, followed by intermediate highs of 17800 and now 17640. 
On the flip side, the intermediate lows of 16410, 16830, and then at 17040 indicate higher low formations. Such structure of ‘Lower Highs and Higher Lows’ in the index are usually formed in a consolidation phase which indicates that Nifty is consolidating within a ‘Symmetrical Triangle Pattern’.

Until we see a clear breakout from this consolidation, the market is likely to continue such directionless moves and hence, focus should now be on stock-specific trades.

The support end of the mentioned ‘Triangle’ pattern would be seen around 17130-17150 while 17570-17600 would be seen as resistance.

For the coming week, we expect Nifty to trade within this range and only a breakout on either side would lead to the next directional move.

Q) Sectorally, the action was seen in metal space while the realty and capital goods sector closed in the red. What led to the price action?

A) The Metal space has seen a time-wise as well as price-wise correction recently. After forming a support base in the range of 5200-5300, the metal space seems to have resumed its momentum, and hence, we expect the outperformance to continue in this sector in the short term.

The Realty and the Capital Goods index had witnessed good buying interest in the last couple of quarters. However, these sectors have seen some correction since mid-October along with the broader markets.

The medium-to-long-term chart structure still remains positive and hence, this just seems to be a time-wise correction within an uptrend.

One should look for stock-specific buying opportunities on declines as once the benchmark resumes its uptrend. We expect these sectors to do relatively well in the medium term.

Q) Banking stock got a boost from RBI policy on Thursday and NiftyBank reclaimed 39000. What are your views on the banking space?

A) Although, in the year 2021, we witnessed some relative underperformance from the banking space, this calendar year 2022 has started on a positive note as we can see returns of 8% in Bank Nifty since the start of the year v/s marginal returns in the Nifty.

This indicates buying interest in the banking space and the Private, as well as PSU stocks, are witnessing good buying interest.

Hence, we expect the banking index to continue its leadership in the next leg of up move in the market. One should continue to trade with a positive bias and keep a ‘Buy-on-dip’ approach for this sector.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Jain said that when markets correct low-quality stocks result in a dent in the portfolio, and hence, one should stick to quality when it comes to investing in mid-cap and small-cap stocks.&nbsp;


Reviewing company’s performance regularly to avoid ‘Tulipmania’ like bubble in your portfolio: Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com

Bulls failed to hold on to Budget week gains as Sensex and Nifty50 lose steam amid US Fed jitters for the week ended 11 February.

Bears took control of D-Street and pushed the Nifty50 below the 50-DMA placed at 17,464. The next big support is placed at 17000, and 200-DMA placed at 16,775.

WATCH | Click on Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

The fall in the index was weighed down by selling by foreign investors (FIIs) as well as US inflation data which raised fears of a steep rate hike by the US Fed and on the domestic front, state elections in 5 states also weighed on sentiment.

FIIs have pulled out by about Rs 10,000 cr from the cash segment of the Indian equity markets so far in February.

The S&amp;P BSE Sensex, and Nifty50 fell 0.8 per cent each for the week ended 11 February while Small &amp; midcaps indices underperformed.

The S&amp;P BSE Small-cap index plunged 3.4 per cent while the S&amp;P BSE Mid-cap index was down 2 per cent in the week gone by.

Much of the volatility on D-Street was fueled by weak global cues, and long-term investors can use the dips to buy into quality stocks.

The volatility will only increase in near future especially in the small &amp; midcap space, suggest experts and traders should lighten any leverage bets.

A rise in interest rates by the US Fed will hit equity and currency markets in near future, suggest experts.

“US inflation has hit a multi-decade high of 7.5%, which has implications on the pace of interest rate increase by the US Fed. As we suggested earlier, this will lead to higher volatility in all financial markets, including equity, debt, and currency,” Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities, said.

“We expect emerging market currencies to be under pressure, including INR. We also expect Indian interest rates to increase despite dovish RBI in the week gone by. This will have implications for equity investors. We expect this increased volatility to hit small / midcaps more than large caps,” he said.

Kulkarni further believes that the expected increase in volatility should be used by investors to build positions in quality large-cap and midcap stocks.

Wealth Erosion:

The BSE-listed companies erode the market cap of over Rs 4 lakh crore on Friday. The market breadth favours declines, advance-decline ratio at 2:7, while volatility index rises over 5 per cent.

For the week investors lost Rs 3.8 lakh cr. The average market capitalization of the BSE-listed companies fell from Rs 267.71 lakh cr on 4 February to Rs 263.89 lakh cr on 11 February.

Technical Take:

The Nifty50 closed below 17400 levels after reclaiming 17600 in the previous session. Friday’s price action wiped out most of the gains made during the week.

Post the RBI Policy meeting, it seemed that the market was geared for a resumption of the positive momentum as the Nifty as well the Bank Nifty index reacted positively.

However, the focus shifted back to global cues which saw a sell-off in equities due to the rising U.S. Bond yields. It looks like the index is consolidating in a range and investors should wait for a decisive breakout or a breakdown before building fresh positions on either side.

The Nifty50 recently formed a high around 18300 first, followed by intermediate highs of 17800 and now 17640.

On the flip side, the intermediate lows of 16410, 16830, and then at 17040 indicate higher low formations.

“Such structure of ‘Lower Highs and Higher Lows’ in the index are usually formed in a consolidation phase which indicates that Nifty is consolidating within a ‘Symmetrical Pattern’,” Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com, said.

“Until we see a clear breakout from this consolidation, the market is likely to continue such directionless moves and hence, the focus should now be on stock-specific trades,” he said.

The support end of the mentioned ‘Triangle’ pattern would be seen around 17130-17150 while 17570-17600 would be seen as resistance.

“For the coming week, we expect Nifty to trade within this range and only a breakout on either side would lead to the next directional move. Hence, traders are advised to focus on stock-specific trades and avoid aggressive positions until we see a breakout on either side,” added Jain.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

The fall in the index was weighed down by selling by foreign investors (FIIs) as well as US inflation data which raised fears of a steep rate hike by the US Fed and on the domestic front, state elections in 5 states also weighed on sentiment.


Nifty below 50-DMA! Expect volatility in small & midcaps in coming weeks, caution experts

Indian market is likely to retest crucial support levels on Friday, tracking muted global cues, but there will be stock-specific action in which global brokerage came out with their reports on business development, or earnings outlook.

We have collated a list of recommendations from various global brokerage firms according to a Zee Business TV report:

M&amp;M: Buy| Target Rs 1220

CLSA maintained a buy rating on M&amp;M post December quarter results with a target price of Rs 1220 that translates into an upside of over 40 per cent from Rs 853 recorded on 10 February.

Earnings met expectations. The company reported a strong improvement in consolidated EBIT. Sharp auto margin improvement could be a key catalyst.

The D-Street is keenly awaiting M&amp;M EV launches, said the note.

Zomato: Overweight| Target Rs 150

Morgan Stanley maintained an overweight rating on Zomato post December quarter results with a target price of Rs 150 that translates into an upside of about 60 per cent from Rs 94 recorded on 10 February.

The global investment bank believes that a lack of growth in MTU (Monthly Transacting Users) QoQ and a slowdown in the GOV or gross order value (even after adjusting for lower delivery charges) more than offset the positive from lower burn rates on a QoQ basis.

The global investment bank is of the view that the above-given factors could limit the stock price in the near term.

Piramal Enterprises: Outperform| Target Rs 2850

CLSA maintained outperform rating on Piramal Enterprises post December quarter results with a target price of Rs 2850 that translates into an upside of over 14 per cent from Rs 2496 recorded on 10 February.

Pharma company’s revenue grew 15% YoY with Ebitda margins at 22%. The global investment raised financial services PAT estimates by 9-19% over FY22-24CL.

Hindalco: Buy| Target Rs 655

CLSA maintained a buy rating on Hindalco post December quarter results with a target price of Rs 655 which translates into an upside of nearly 20 per cent from Rs 547 recorded on 10 February.

The management focus shifted to growth from leverage. Higher LME to be partly offset by higher costs and hedging impact. Growth in focus as leverage meaningfully lower, said the report.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Indian market is likely to retest crucial support levels on Friday, tracking muted global cues, but there will be stock-specific action in which global brokerage came out with their reports on business development, or earnings outlook.


Global View: M&M, Zomato, Piramal Enterprises and Hindalco could give 10-60% return in 12 months

Indian market closed in the green on Thursday for the third consecutive day in a row. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex rallied more than 450 points while the Nifty50 closed above 17600 levels.

Sectorally, buying was seen in power, metals, banks, finance, and IT while mild selling was seen in capital goods stocks.

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.zeebiz.com/live-tv/embed" width="100%"></iframe>

Stocks that were in focus include Hindalco which closed flat after hitting a fresh 52-week high, and GNFC closed with gains of over 4 per cent on Thursday.

Here's what Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research and Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today:

Hindalco: Buy on a close above Rs 554

Albeit hitting new lifetime highs, this counter registered a Doji kind of indecisive formation. Hence, it needs a strong close above the 551 levels to retain strong upward momentum in line with new lifetime highs.

In that scenario, eventually, a higher target of 597 is required. However, a close below 541 can infuse temporary weakness which can drag down the index towards 514 levels.

But such a correction can be considered as an opportunity to go long. For time being it looks prudent to buy only on a strong close above 554 levels and look for a higher target of 590 levels.&nbsp;

GNFC: Hold

This counter seems to have registered a fresh breakout after a multi-week consolidation that lasted for almost 17 weeks. Therefore, sustaining above 541 levels it can head towards 597 levels.

However, a close below 541 levels shall induce weakness which can drag down this counter close to 510 levels which can be considered as a good buying opportunity.

For time being traders who are invested in this counter shall hold with a stop below 540.

Indian market closed in the green on Thursday for the third consecutive day in a row. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex rallied more than 450 points while the Nifty50 closed above 17600 levels.


Kshitij Anand