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Radhakishan Damani-promoted Avenue Supermarts (DMart) stock rose over 40 per cent in last one year compared to over 15 per cent upside seen in the Nifty50 in the same period but the rally may not be over yet.

D-Mart with a market capitalization of more than Rs 2.8 lakh cr hit a 52-week high of Rs 5899 on 18 October and then the trend sent sideways. The stock of this retail chain company managed to reclaim its 200-DMA in February which is acting as a crucial support.

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The stock seems to be consolidating in a narrow range but has managed to bounce back from the 200-DMA which suggests buying at lower levels.

Experts advise investors to hold on to the stock if they already have in their portfolio, and if someone plans to put fresh money can wait for a dip. Technical indicators suggest an upside towards Rs 4410-4550 in next 3-4 weeks, suggest experts.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd, which owns and operates retail chain D-Mart, has reported nearly 22 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in its standalone revenue from operations at Rs 9,065.02 crore for the third quarter ended on December 31, 2021.

The company had revenue from operations of Rs 7,432.69 crore in the October-December quarter a year ago, Avenue Supermarts informed BSE in a regulatory filing back in January.

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Technically, since the past five weeks, the stock continue to consolidate around 61.8% Fibonacci support zone of 3907 levels on a weekly closing basis

“This strong consolidation is also supported with its 200-day SMA (4044) which remains a crucial support zone. Rising volumes in this consolidation range signals increased participation at lower levels,” Rajesh Palviya, VP – Research, Head Technical &amp; Derivatives, Axis Securities, said.

“The daily strength indicator RSI is in bullish mode along with positive crossover which supports rising strength in near term,” he added.

Palviya further added that the above analysis indicates an upside of 4410-4550 levels. Holding period is 3 to 4 weeks.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

D-Mart with a market capitalization of more than Rs 2.8 lakh cr hit a 52-week high of Rs 5899 on 18 October and then the trend sent sideways.


Technical Check: Rising volumes in DMart signal further upside; Is it time to buy this Radhakishan Damani-promoted stock?

Titan Company Ltd, part of S&amp;P BSE Sensex and Nifty50&nbsp;indices, rallied over 70 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last year compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;10 per cent upside seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period but the rally may not be over yet, suggest experts based on charts. 
 
The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;which is&nbsp;owned&nbsp;by Rakesh&nbsp;Jhunjhunwala&nbsp;has been an outperformer. The ace&nbsp;investor owns 5.1 per cent stake worth more than Rs 11,000 cr at the end of the December quarter, data from Trendlyne showed.

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Not just&nbsp;Jhunjhunwala&nbsp;but domestic mutual funds also raised their stake&nbsp;in&nbsp;the company. MFs&nbsp;increased their holding from 4.19 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the September quarter&nbsp;to&nbsp;4.45 per cent at the end of the December quarter, data showed. 
 
The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;with a market capitalization of nearly Rs 2.2 lakh cr has been making&nbsp;higher&nbsp;highs and lows which is positive for bulls. Recently, the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;closed above the 20-Week Moving Average which suggests that the momentum could continue. 
 
The Tata group firm reported an 11.81 per cent&nbsp;increase&nbsp;in&nbsp;consolidated net profit&nbsp;to&nbsp;Rs 530 crore for the third quarter ended&nbsp;in&nbsp;December, led by&nbsp;income growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;the jewellery division. 
 
The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;can be bought now or on dips&nbsp;amid&nbsp;ongoing volatility caused by the&nbsp;Russia-Ukraine&nbsp;war&nbsp;as the potential upmove could take the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;towards its swing&nbsp;high&nbsp;of Rs 2650 and then above Rs 3,000&nbsp;in&nbsp;the next&nbsp;6&nbsp;months, suggest experts.

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On mid-term charts, Titan is moving with&nbsp;higher&nbsp;highs and lows formation. The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;is currently consolidating&nbsp;in&nbsp;range of 2250-2650 for the past 5&nbsp;months. 
 
The&nbsp;stock&nbsp;is showing relative outperformance and has not corrected sharply unlike the weakness&nbsp;in&nbsp;the markets. 
 
“Currently the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;is trading above the 20 Week SMA (2440) whereas Nifty is trading 5% below the 20 week SMA (17530),” Malay Thakkar,&nbsp;Technical&nbsp;Research Associate, GEPL Capital, said. 
 
“The RSI&nbsp;indicator plotted on weekly has formed a bullish hinge near the 40 mark and has started moving&nbsp;higher&nbsp;indicating bullish momentum&nbsp;in&nbsp;the prices,” he said. 
 
Thakkar said that the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;has the potential&nbsp;to&nbsp;move&nbsp;towards 2650 (Swing&nbsp;High) and break above which can take it&nbsp;towards 3050. The downside support for the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;is placed at 2260, he added. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here&nbsp;in&nbsp;this&nbsp;article is solely by&nbsp;investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their&nbsp;investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Titan Company Ltd, part of S&amp;P BSE Sensex and Nifty50&nbsp;indices, rallied over 70 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the last year compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;10 per cent upside seen&nbsp;in&nbsp;the Nifty50&nbsp;in&nbsp;the same period but the rally may not be over yet, suggest experts based on charts


Technical Check: This Jhunjhunwala owned stock eyes fresh 52-week high in 6 months; time to buy amid Russia-Ukraine war?

No, it is not COVID, but an outbreak of a war&nbsp;between Russia and Ukraine as well as heightened expectations of tighter monetary policies by central bankers across the globe which led&nbsp;to&nbsp;a steep double-digit fall in equities across the globe and India is not immune&nbsp;to&nbsp;the selloff. 
 
Warren&nbsp;Buffett&nbsp;once said that it is wise for investors&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;“fearful&nbsp;when&nbsp;others&nbsp;are&nbsp;greedy, and&nbsp;greedy&nbsp;when&nbsp;others&nbsp;are&nbsp;fearful.”

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The&nbsp;Nifty50 is&nbsp;down&nbsp;over 10 per cent&nbsp;from&nbsp;the recent high of 18,604 recorded in October 2021 largely weighed&nbsp;down&nbsp;by external events such as the outbreak of war, rise in interest rates globally as well as a spike in crude oil which will fuel inflation. &nbsp; 
 
The next big question in front of investors is – is this a&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;become&nbsp;greedy? Well, experts&nbsp;are&nbsp;not denying the possibility of long-term wealth creation if somebody plans&nbsp;to&nbsp;invest fresh capital. 
 
Good businesses, as well as quality stocks in large-mid and smallcap space, can&nbsp;be&nbsp;looked at. Traders should avoid leverage&nbsp;bets and investors should book profits or cut positions in stocks that lack earnings visibility as volatility is here&nbsp;to&nbsp;stay. 
 
“The current market fall has the markings of a black swan event. The attack came as a surprise&nbsp;to&nbsp;the market which is apparent&nbsp;from&nbsp;the reaction. But is this the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;greedy&nbsp;when&nbsp;everyone else is&nbsp;fearful&nbsp;--&nbsp;Warren&nbsp;Buffett's&nbsp;teachings?,” Vikas Singhania, CEO, TradeSmart, said. 
 
“It is definitely the&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;run our scanner and look for stocks where the intrinsic value is lower than the market price. The search is&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;restricted&nbsp;to&nbsp;frontline stocks as they tend&nbsp;to&nbsp;recover faster,” he added. 
 
One does not know how long this event may last and whether it will spread&nbsp;to&nbsp;other regions. Singhania added that it is thus&nbsp;better&nbsp;to&nbsp;play safe and nibble in stocks where valuations&nbsp;are&nbsp;compelling. 
 
March 2020 was also a month&nbsp;when&nbsp;fear ruled equity markets, and we&nbsp;are&nbsp;in a similar situation in February 2022 – amid a rise in geopolitical concerns which pushed Crude above $100, and triggered risk-off sentiment. &nbsp; 
 
The last&nbsp;time&nbsp;we saw a double-digit fall in&nbsp;benchmark indices was back in March 2020 and since then we have more than doubled and many stocks have already given multibagger returns. 
 
Amid rising geopolitical concerns which is here&nbsp;to&nbsp;stay India Inc.'s performance in the December quarter was strong.&nbsp;Nifty&nbsp;constituents saw more&nbsp;beats than misses which is a good sign. 
 
If things stabalise in the near future earnings will drive re-rating, but the short-term threat would&nbsp;be&nbsp;a rise in raw material costs as inflation is likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;spike. 
 
“Geopolitical events often come up with short-term reactions in the market as the dominant news flow leads&nbsp;to&nbsp;market volatility. The current Russia-Ukraine crisis would lead&nbsp;to&nbsp;a rise in oil prices, higher than the current levels,” Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities, said. 
 
“High crude prices could delay the cool-off in inflation, which was expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;go moderate by the second half of 2022. We&nbsp;believe the present macroeconomic developments&nbsp;are&nbsp;leading&nbsp;to&nbsp;volatility in all major asset classes, including equity and debt,” he said. 
 
The volatility is here&nbsp;to&nbsp;stay for some&nbsp;time&nbsp;before we conclude a market direction. “Investors should focus on asset allocation and use this volatility&nbsp;to&nbsp;build long-term positions in quality large and mid-cap stocks as they&nbsp;become attractive after the recent correction and provide a good entry point,” added Kulkarni. 
 
Selloff by FIIs&nbsp;to&nbsp;continue: 
 
Foreign investors have pulled out more than Rs 40,000 cr&nbsp;from&nbsp;the cash segment of the Indian equity markets so far in February – 5 straight months of the selloff. 
 
Experts feel that the selloff is likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;continue in near future amid rise in geopolitical concerns. Geopolitical tension of such a magnitude doesn’t augur well for emerging markets like India with respect&nbsp;to&nbsp;foreign flows, they say. 
 
FII flows into Indian equity markets have not&nbsp;been encouraging for a long&nbsp;time&nbsp;now. &nbsp;From&nbsp;November 22, 2021, till Feb 23, 2022, FIIs&nbsp;are&nbsp;net sellers in the Indian equity markets&nbsp;to&nbsp;the tune of USD 12.93 billion. 
 
This year so far, FIIs have sold net assets worth USD 7.72 billon in the Indian equity markets. “In addition&nbsp;to&nbsp;fears of rise in US interest rates, brewing tension&nbsp;between Russia and Ukraine, and with fears of war&nbsp;between the two countries looming large, foreign investors adopted a cautious approach and started&nbsp;to&nbsp;stay away&nbsp;from&nbsp;investing in emerging markets like India,” Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director - Manager Research, Morningstar India, said. 
 
“In fact, as Indian markets continued&nbsp;to&nbsp;trade at elevated levels despite intermittent corrections, they chose&nbsp;to&nbsp;book profit and probably opt for safer investment options, such as safe havens like gold,” he said. 
 
Srivastava further added that emerging markets like India&nbsp;are&nbsp;considered&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;riskier investment destinations and more prone&nbsp;to&nbsp;geopolitical turmoil compared&nbsp;to&nbsp;developed markets -- usually under such scenarios, FIIs tend&nbsp;to&nbsp;drift away&nbsp;from&nbsp;these markets and move&nbsp;towards investment avenues offering greater safety. I&nbsp;believe that’s going&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;the case this&nbsp;time&nbsp;as well. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their investment advisers&nbsp;before making any financial decision.)

No, it is not COVID, but an outbreak of a war&nbsp;between Russia and Ukraine as well as heightened expectations of tighter monetary policies by central bankers across the globe which led&nbsp;to&nbsp;a steep double-digit fall in equities across the globe and India is not immune&nbsp;to&nbsp;the selloff


Nifty down 10% from highs! Time to follow Warren Buffett’s teaching- ‘be greedy when others are fearful’?

Rushab&nbsp;Sheth, Co-CIO,&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital&nbsp;Advisors&nbsp;said that historically,&nbsp;when&nbsp;interest&nbsp;rates&nbsp;increase,&nbsp;high&nbsp;PE&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;have&nbsp;come&nbsp;down&nbsp;and we may witness the same once again and there will be a rotation&nbsp;to&nbsp;value&nbsp;stocks. 
 
Sheth is the Director and co-founder&nbsp;of&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital&nbsp;Advisors.&nbsp;Rushabh’s experience spans over 29 years with 21 years in money management – primarily in listed equities. At&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital, he is also Portfolio Manager besides contributing&nbsp;to&nbsp;the overall corporate management. 
 
In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand,&nbsp;Sheth&nbsp;said that there is near-term volatility due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the geopolitical environment, oil prices, inflation, but, for the long-term investor, this&nbsp;period&nbsp;of&nbsp;volatility and consolidation is a great opportunity. Edited Excerpts – 
 
Q) Geopolitical events as well as expectations&nbsp;of&nbsp;strong tightening by the US Fed, have certainly fueled a risk-off sentiment. What is your take and how should long-term investors view this? 
 
A) The budget was progressive and has given a big thrust&nbsp;to&nbsp;infrastructure – which is one&nbsp;of&nbsp;the most important areas for economic growth. 
 
Also, the budget has not disappointed markets because the underlying economy itself is growing and is well poised&nbsp;to&nbsp;continue growing fast. 
 
The outlook for Indian equities has further improved as the economy emerges from the COVID-19 shock. While there are several tailwinds from the very long-term structural growth trends such as a large domestic market, favorable demographics and a maturing equity market in India - there is an increasing likelihood that in the near&nbsp;to&nbsp;medium term, more technology and manufacturing jobs will relocate here from across the region. 
 
We especially see a sort&nbsp;of&nbsp;renaissance&nbsp;of&nbsp;manufacturing in India over the next few years. Post Covid, there has been a rethink&nbsp;of&nbsp;global supply chains&nbsp;to&nbsp;a “China+1” strategy, increasing costs for Chinese manufacturers due&nbsp;to&nbsp;environmental factors and US-China trade tensions. 
 
Also, the&nbsp;manufacturing sector is less than 13%&nbsp;of&nbsp;GDP and at its lowest since 1960. This&nbsp;offers the Indian manufacturing sector a large opportunity, which, with the right policy environment – like Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes - can lead&nbsp;to&nbsp;share&nbsp;of&nbsp;the manufacturing sector in the Indian economy improving. &nbsp; 
 
In the meantime, there is near-term volatility due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the geopolitical environment, oil prices, inflation. But, for the long-term investor, this&nbsp;period&nbsp;of&nbsp;volatility and consolidation is a great opportunity. 
 
Q) What is your take on the December quarter earnings and what are the kinds&nbsp;of&nbsp;projections you foresee for FY23? 
 
A) The earnings in the December quarter were compressed due&nbsp;to&nbsp;higher raw material and inflationary pressures and this will continue for one more quarter. 
 
Consensus Bloomberg EPS estimate for FY 23 for the Nifty companies stands at Rs 888 (an EPS growth&nbsp;of&nbsp;nearly 20% from the previous FYs consensus estimates) and we expect earnings revival&nbsp;to&nbsp;continue. 
 
The April – June quarter will especially look good optically on a year-on-year basis due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the COVID impacted quarter in the previous year. 
 
Q) Last two months have been volatile. How have you positioned your portfolio&nbsp;to&nbsp;tackle volatility amid external headwinds? 
 
A) We have positively positioned our portfolio for inflation and volatility. For instance, media, telecom and pharma - sectors that&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital&nbsp;is overweight on will see an earnings revival, remaining significantly unimpacted by inflation. &nbsp; 
 
Q) Inflation might certainly become a pain point for the economy as well as RBI – what trajectory do you foresee for the rate in the next 12 months. How should investors position themselves&nbsp;to&nbsp;tackle the change? 
 
A) RBI will surely be raising&nbsp;rates&nbsp;but not sure by how much. For investors&nbsp;of&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital, we have reduced weights in financials as we expect financials&nbsp;to&nbsp;be under pressure if&nbsp;rates&nbsp;are hiked more than expectations. &nbsp; 
 
Q) Small &amp; midcaps have clearly outperformed in the past 2 years with handsome margins – how should investors view the space in FY23? 
 
A) Small and mid-caps will remain more volatile. However, with the earnings momentum continuing&nbsp;to&nbsp;build, SMID companies will outperform the market in the next few years. 
 
Within the SMID caps space, there are several types&nbsp;of&nbsp;companies across the spectrum that we find&nbsp;interesting. ` 
 
For instance, the rise in income levels will benefit many consumers' discretionary products and services such as passenger vehicles,&nbsp;high-end electronics, etc. 
 
Or the recent financialisation&nbsp;of&nbsp;the economy is surely going&nbsp;to&nbsp;spur unprecedented growth in financial services companies that target under-served markets using a combination&nbsp;of&nbsp;offline and technology-enabled interventions. 
 
Further, there are many niche businesses in manufacturing and services who lead their respective industries with innovation, and tap new growth opportunities like exports, etc. 
 
And not&nbsp;to&nbsp;mention the healthcare, wellness, and clean environment companies that could also benefit post pandemic since there is renewed focus among individuals and family on health and wellness. 
 
Q) If someone is running a portfolio with deep red – what should be his/her strategy before the financial year-end. Hold positions or exit&nbsp;stocks. If exit, then which&nbsp;stocks/fund should the investors exit from? 
 
A) This question needs&nbsp;to&nbsp;be looked at from the 2 points&nbsp;of&nbsp;view. Firstly, if an investor thinks that the stock or mutual fund that they are holding is intrinsically good, hold on, despite this short-term volatility.

&nbsp; 
However, if it is not meeting the criteria&nbsp;of&nbsp;quality then one should exit - irrespective&nbsp;of&nbsp;market conditions. 
 
And secondly, every investor should have an asset allocation plan that has been developed with the help&nbsp;of&nbsp;an advisor and the investor should continue&nbsp;to&nbsp;stick&nbsp;to&nbsp;that. 
 
Q) FIIs clearly remain net sellers but retail investor force is something that is keeping market float at every support. How do you see FII activity in the near future? There is a saying that&nbsp;when&nbsp;FIIs exit – it is usually the best time&nbsp;to&nbsp;book profits? 
 
A) Due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the recent sell-off, one&nbsp;tends&nbsp;to&nbsp;forget that FIIs have been net buyers for the last decade and that is very unlikely&nbsp;to&nbsp;change. Besides, some&nbsp;of&nbsp;the recent FII sell-off also has been due&nbsp;to&nbsp;selloffs in index funds that invest in emerging markets. 
 
Q) The recent selling was largely seen in&nbsp;high&nbsp;PE&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;while low&nbsp;PE&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;did not see much sell-off. Can we say that smart money is now moving out&nbsp;of&nbsp;high&nbsp;beta counters and richly priced&nbsp;stocks? 
 
A) Historically,&nbsp;when&nbsp;interest&nbsp;rates&nbsp;increase,&nbsp;high&nbsp;PE&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;have&nbsp;come&nbsp;down&nbsp;and we may witness the same once again and there will be a rotation&nbsp;to&nbsp;value&nbsp;stocks. 
 
This scenario is very conducive for stock picking identifying opportunities through a bottom-up, fundamental research process that&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital&nbsp;manages. 
 
Q) Govt. has notified the first phase&nbsp;of&nbsp;the green hydrogen policy. What does it mean for markets and which companies are likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;get benefited the most? Also, does that mean that companies with&nbsp;high&nbsp;ESG ratings will be considered for investment by foreign funds? 
 
A) It’s good&nbsp;to&nbsp;see that the government is taking a step in the right direction. However, it’s&nbsp;too early&nbsp;to&nbsp;see which companies are likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;benefit the most from this step. In general, we feel that ESG will become a big factor in investing as global investors seem&nbsp;to&nbsp;be uncompromising in this area. Indian companies are recognizing this and are working&nbsp;to&nbsp;get their ESG ratings up&nbsp;too. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Sheth is the Director and Cofounder&nbsp;of&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital&nbsp;Advisors.&nbsp;Rushabh’s experience spans over 29&nbsp;years with 21 years in money management – primarily in listed equities. At&nbsp;Karma&nbsp;Capital, he is also Portfolio Manager besides contributing&nbsp;to&nbsp;the overall corporate management


Dalal Street Voice: When interest rates increase high PE stocks tend to come down: Rushab Sheth of Karma Capital Advisors

Vinod&nbsp;Nair, Head&nbsp;of&nbsp;Research at&nbsp;Geojit&nbsp;Financial&nbsp;Services&nbsp;said that investors can start&nbsp;deploying the free&nbsp;cash&nbsp;in the portfolio. It should&nbsp;be&nbsp;on a&nbsp;stock-to-stock&nbsp;basis and step up in a gradual manner rather than&nbsp;lumpsum. 
 
In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand,&nbsp;Nair&nbsp;said that the broader market is weak&nbsp;because&nbsp;of&nbsp;the weaker performance&nbsp;of&nbsp;the Mid &amp; Small caps which is usual amid fears. It is safer &amp; lucrative&nbsp;to&nbsp;invest in low&nbsp;beta&nbsp;stocks. Edited Excerpts – 
 
Q) Nifty50 has&nbsp;fallen more than 3.5% in the week pushing the index&nbsp;below crucial support levels. What led&nbsp;to&nbsp;the price action? 
 
A) Equity was already under pressure amid high valuations, rising yields, and inflation. The unexpected full-fledged war (Ukraine-Russia) increased the dilemma&nbsp;of&nbsp;the market. &nbsp; 
 
The extent&nbsp;of&nbsp;the surprise was so high that the Russian market corrected by as much as 50 per cent on the war day. The World MSCI index was down by 3 per cent while the Indian market plunged by about 5 per cent.

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Q) India VIX climbed 31 levels on Thursday. What does the fear index tell us about future movement in markets in the coming week? 
 
A) It tells that volatility is expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;continue in the short term. Four factors that will define the future trend&nbsp;of&nbsp;volatility are a) developments&nbsp;of&nbsp;the war, b) the US Fed rate hike plans, c) state election outcome, and d) the trend&nbsp;of&nbsp;inflation. 
 
Q) How is market likely&nbsp;to&nbsp;trade in the truncated week? What should&nbsp;be&nbsp;the strategy – buy the dip, or hold fresh buying till market stabilizes after&nbsp;10%&nbsp;fall&nbsp;from&nbsp;highs? 
 
A) It makes sense&nbsp;to&nbsp;buy at dips in the coming week. Currently, we are at the lower trend&nbsp;of&nbsp;the negative channel and any positive development in a war situation will&nbsp;be&nbsp;a big relief for the market. 
 
We can start&nbsp;deploying the free&nbsp;cash&nbsp;in the portfolio. It should&nbsp;be&nbsp;on a&nbsp;stock-to-stock&nbsp;basis and step up in a gradual manner rather than&nbsp;lumpsum. 
 
Q) Based on February expiry – what is the kind&nbsp;of&nbsp;action you see for March series amid geopolitical concerns, rise in crude oil etc. 
 
A) The expiry was weak due&nbsp;to&nbsp;unexpected war uncertainties. The current position on the March series is low hence the future position will&nbsp;be&nbsp;built based on future development on war, fed hike, and state elections. It has a mild positivity however it has tentativeness. 
 
Q) Broader market underperformed&nbsp;benchmark indices – how should investors approach this space. Time&nbsp;to&nbsp;book profits in overvalues, high&nbsp;beta&nbsp;stocks? What are your views? 
 
A) The broader market is weak&nbsp;because&nbsp;of&nbsp;the weaker performance&nbsp;of&nbsp;the Mid &amp; Small caps which is usual amid fears. It is safer &amp; lucrative&nbsp;to&nbsp;invest in low&nbsp;beta&nbsp;stocks. 
 
It is not the time&nbsp;to&nbsp;book the position. For example, a&nbsp;broad index like Nifty500 has seen about 80 per cent&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;stocks correct by a minimum 20 per cent and a maximum by 80 per cent, simple average correction is about 30 per cent&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;stocks respective 52-week high. 
 
Q) Sectorally, Oil &amp; gas index saw a selloff in the week gone by. What led&nbsp;to&nbsp;the price action? Additionally, realty and telecom also saw a similar&nbsp;fall. What led&nbsp;to&nbsp;the price action? 
 
A) Indian energy companies were heavily impacted by the high cost&nbsp;of&nbsp;crude &amp; gas. The industry’s performance was already weak in Q3 resulting in a&nbsp;fall&nbsp;in operating profits and supply constraints. 
 
This is expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;further continue in the coming quarters as crude prices have crossed $100. This weakness can quickly revert if the war position eases. 
 
On a long-term basis,&nbsp;stocks related&nbsp;to&nbsp;gas look very attractive due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the focus on renewable energy and consistent volume growth. High&nbsp;beta&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;of&nbsp;reality &amp; telecom were also impacted by the volatility. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers&nbsp;to&nbsp;consult with their investment advisers&nbsp;before making any&nbsp;financial&nbsp;decision.)

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand,&nbsp;Nair&nbsp;said that the broader market is weak&nbsp;because&nbsp;of&nbsp;the weaker performance&nbsp;of&nbsp;the Mid &amp; Small caps which is usual amid fears. It is safer &amp; lucrative&nbsp;to&nbsp;invest in low&nbsp;beta&nbsp;stocks


Want to deploy cash post 10% fall from highs? Be stock specific & avoid lump sum: Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services

Abhishek Banerjee, CEO, Lotusdew said that there is a saying ‘buying to the roar of cannons and selling to the sound of trumpets". India outperformed the world during the conflict period.

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Banerjee said that conflict-induced volatility usually leads to rallies. During the Kargil conflict in 1999 benchmark indices gained 33%. Even during Mumbai 2008 attacks, the Sensex had surged. Edited Excerpts –

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&nbsp;

Q) What is the Ukraine crisis impacting Indian equity markets? Help us decode why investors' portfolios are losing market cap?

A) There is a saying ‘buying to the roar of cannons and selling to the sound of trumpets". India outperformed the world during the conflict period.

India is generally considered a safe haven among emerging markets (EMs). An analysis of 19 major military conflicts involving the US since 1960 shows that the Dow Jones industrial average had a lower return 11 out of 19 times.

Conflict-induced volatility usually leads to rallies. During the Kargil conflict in 1999 benchmark indices gained 33%. Even during Mumbai 2008 attacks, the Sensex had surged.

Q) The Nifty50 has turned negative so far in the year 2022 and is down by over 7% from highs. The story has not exactly turned the way Indian investors would have wanted. What should be investors' strategy?

A) The issue is that there is a general emerging market selloff due to anticipated (or perhaps when we record this - implemented) sanctions on Russia and Indian equity is getting dragged into the selloff related to Russia - primarily because of passive funds that need to rebalance automatically.

For an active investor, India is, however, considered a safe haven among EM - so we might see fund managers increase India allocation.

FPIs usually prefer quality and value in EM, our opinion is quality and/or value can underperform opening up of opportunities for smallcaps which are more niche and ignored by large FPIs to come into limelight.

Q) Equity markets across the globe are under stress. How can investors stay ahead? Do you recommend investing in a diverse portfolio of global equity? How do you pick stocks in the global portfolio?

A) As there is a flight towards safer holds of assets. Cryptos, EMs, Risky debt might see a selloff. Foreign equity especially US equity is also challenged due to a higher inflation outlook which compresses PE multiples.

That said, among the choices, US equity is interesting especially smallcaps as they are likely to be insulated from global events and reciprocal sanctions if any.

We apply AI to select stocks based on measuring investor preference. Our main USP is that we start stock screening with non-balance sheet data that we collect and process using our proprietary technology and process.

This gives us the ability to make bottom-up portfolios in any market including US and apply top-down risk and portfolio, construction mechanics. Our stock picking is purely systematic and makes it scalable for investors.

Q) How will state election results impact Indian markets in near future?

A) Elections are a sign of confidence of continuity and hence policy certainty. The budget has sent a message that government is comfortable with the current policy framework and not keen to change things policy-wise rapidly.

This makes it easier to frame business strategy and hence can provide greater predictability for earnings which can shore up equity prices.

Q) Do you think LIC IPO will crowd out other offerings? And, is it a bad time for the life insurer amid muted sentiment?

A) I think this will be value unlocking for many. Investors are updating their KYC records with LIC which can lead to payoffs where money was stuck as KYC was not complete. LIC has over 50k crore in unpaid dividends.

Some of this could find its way back into the economy and hence improve sentiment.

Q) Where is smart money seems to be moving? Many high PE stocks seem to be going through a reversal while low PE stocks are getting buying interest.

A) Let's first understand what PE means. For example, a PE of 30 means that investors are willing to pay Rs 30 for each rupee of the last 12-month earnings currently.

However, it is not the last 12-month earnings that matter but the future earnings too. As future interest rates tend to rise, this future looks less valuable as now it has to compete with higher interest rates as investor preference.

When interest rates are low, higher PE multiple can be supported. Usually in India, quality has always commanded a higher PE multiple.

As explained above, due to passive fund redemptions, we can see quality particularly hurt in the short to medium term. That means money is rotating into lower PE stocks which are of value in nature.

However, value has traditionally underperformed in India, so we will have to see how this pans out.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Abhishek Banerjee, CEO, Lotusdew said that there is a saying ‘buying to the roar of cannons and selling to the sound of trumpets". India outperformed the world during the conflict period.

&nbsp;


Market Manthan: Kargil war has more lessons for investors; Stock market rallies post conflict-induced volatility: Abhishek Banerjee of Lotusdew

Indian market snapped 7-day losing streak on Friday to close with gains of over 2 per cent. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex rallied more than 1300 points while the Nifty50 closed above 16600 levels.

Sectorally, metals, realty, power, utilities, and public sector closed in the green. The S&amp;P BSE Smallcap index and the S&amp;P BSE Midcap index closed with gains of over 4 per cent each.

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Stocks that were in focus include PNB which closed with gains of over 9 per cent, NBCC rallied over 13 per cent and Zensar Technologies rose over 7 per cent on Friday.

Here's what Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities Ltd, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today:

PNB: Hold

On February 25th after a sharp selloff, the stock bounced back sharply and rallied over 10 per cent. However, this month so far, it is corrected by over 20 per cent.

From the last couple of weeks, the stock is consistently trading below the 200-Day SMA and on the daily charts.

The short-term structure is still on the downside and 38 and 40 would be the immediate resistance area for the Punjab National Bank. On the flip side, 33.50 would be the immediate support level.&nbsp;&nbsp;

A fresh round of sell-off is not ruled out if the stock succeeds to close below 33.50. A close below this level could hit the level of 32-30.

NBCC: Avoid

The stock is consistently facing selling pressure at higher levels. NBCC has corrected by over 20 per cent so far in February.

The important thing is that on the daily and intraday charts the stock has been consistently forming lower top series formation which is broadly negative for the medium term.

However, due to a temporary oversold situation, it reversed sharply and rallied over 10 per cent. We are of the view that, the medium-term structure is still on the downside, but the pullback rally is likely to continue if it succeeds to trade above 36-37 level.

On the higher side, 40 and 42 would be the immediate hurdle areas for the bulls. on the other side, below 36 the short-term uptrend would be vulnerable.

Zensar Technologies: Buy on dips

From the last couple of months, it is consistently witnessing profit booking at higher levels. In the current quarter, it has corrected over 35 per cent.

In addition, Zensar Technologies Ltd. is comfortably trading below 200-Day and short-term averages which is broadly negative.

However, momentum indicators indicate that the stock is in an oversold zone and there are high chances of a quick short-term pullback rally is not ruled out if the stock trades above 350.

For the next few trading session, 350-340 would be the trend decider level for the bulls, sustain above the same we can expect the continuation of uptrend up to 370.

Further uptrend may also continue which could lift the stock up to 390. On the flip side, dismissal of 320 may trigger further weakness till 300-290.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

&nbsp;

Indian market snapped 7-day losing streak on Friday to close with gains of over 2 per cent. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex rallied more than 1300 points while the Nifty50 closed above 16600 levels.

&nbsp;


Buy, Sell or Hold: What should investors do with PNB, NBCC and Zensar Technologies?

Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities said that in the coming week we can see levels of 17,500 acting as strong resistance and 16,500 levels may act as a strong support to push the market upwards.

Mohit has exposure in the capital markets across forex, equities, bonds, and Investment Banking with Axis Bank and Goldman Sachs respectively.

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In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Nigam said that the overall trend of the market is up so the March series is expected to remain stable or in a bullish mode. Edited Excerpts –

Q) Nifty50 is already down more than 3% in the week pushing the index below crucial support levels. What led to the price action?

A) The major reason which pushed the Indian markets in the southward territory this week is the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine which lead the investors to press the panic button and move out of risky assets to safe assets.

Crude Oil prices rose above $105 for the first time after 2014 and also put some pressure on markets. We have witnessed a sharp rally today due to a rally in global indices.

We believe that the volatility might continue to persist over some time due to uncertain global cues. We advise our investors to maintain liquidity and add quality stocks in significant dips.

Q) India VIX climbed 31 levels as of Thursday. What does the fear index tell us about future movement in markets in the coming week?

A) India VIX or India volatility index measures the volatility and fluctuations in the market. Yesterday VIX rose to 31 indicating panic and extreme volatility on the back of rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The news of Russia attacking Ukraine during the early hours of Thursday morning sent negative signals to the already jittery market. The coming week can witness some volatility as more events will start unfolding regarding the tussle.

Markets were positive on Friday despite increasing sanctions on Russia coupled with rising crude oil and natural gas prices.

The index helps short-term investors to sense market movements. Long-term investors should not be worried as good recovery is always expected after such falls.

Q) How is the market likely to trade in the truncated week? What should be the strategy – buy the dip, or hold fresh buying till market stabalise? 
&nbsp; 
A) In the coming week, Indian markets in spite of the global pressure may give some good upward movement as it has already corrected significantly from its all-time high.

The coming week is important in many ways, as it is the first week of the last month of FY22.&nbsp; In the coming week we can see levels of 17,500 acting as strong resistance and 16,500 levels may act as a strong support to push the market upwards.

Investors should keep a close eye on quality stocks available at a fair valuation. Long-term investors can use this opportunity to invest in quality stocks as we are in a structural bull run which is going to continue for the next couple of years.

These small corrections which happened last week amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis are going to be part of the journey.

Q) Based on the February expiry – what is the kind of action you see for the March series amid geopolitical concerns, rise in crude oil etc.

A) Benchmark Indices across the world witnessed a bloodbath in Feb month of 2022 after the Ukraine-Russia war.

The Sensex and Nifty 50 which was trading at its all-time high at around 61,000 and 18,000 levels are now trading near 56,000 and 16,500 levels.

Brent crude futures reached at its seven-year high levels due to war-like scenarios between the above two countries and also because of this, Russia’s energy export could be disrupted which can play a major trigger for a further bullish trend in crude price.

These events are short-term fallouts and history has shown that these types of tensions are short-lived, and markets generally recover sharply from these drawdowns.

Based on history, this time also Investors may ignore these developments and can plan a gradual entry into long term Portfolios. The overall trend of the market is up so the March series is expected to remain stable or in a bullish mode.

Q) Broader market underperformed benchmark indices – how should investors approach this space. Time to book profits in overvalued, high beta stocks? What are your views?

A) Bond yields have risen, oil prices have climbed, and geopolitical fears have risen, adding to the headwinds. As the results of state elections and the FOMC meeting are both awaited, volatility is expected to remain high until the middle of March.&nbsp;&nbsp;

We expect broader markets to continue to outperform the Nifty50, as small and midcap stocks always perform strongly when the economy recovers.

India's long-term story remains unchanged, as we are in a structural bull run that will last for the next couple of years, the last few trading sessions have presented a terrific opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality companies at discounted prices available at fair valuation.

Q) Sectorally, Oil &amp; gas index fell the most. What led to the price action? Additionally, realty and telecom also saw a similar fall. What led to the price action?

A) In the Last 1 week, markets witnessed a huge correction. All major indices like Oil &amp; Gas, Reality, Telecom fall more than 5%.

Many stocks among the sectors have corrected more than 10-15%. Major reasons for the selloff were rising crude oil prices, an increase of other commodity prices, margin pressure in latest quarterly results, Fed's indication of a rate hike in the future, and War-like situations between Russia and Ukraine.

As we rely heavily on crude oil imports and we may face high inflation which leads to fall in margin and that will lead to more corrections among the Index in near future. We believe investors should be cautious before investing in such stocks.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

&nbsp;

Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities said that in the coming week we can see levels of 17,500 acting as strong resistance and 16,500 levels may act as a strong support to push the market upwards.

&nbsp;


March F&O series is expected to remain stable despite Russia-Ukraine war: Mohit Nigam of Hem Securities

Indian market plunged nearly 5 per cent in a single trading session on Thursday after Russian forces invaded Ukraine. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex fell more than 2700 points while the Nifty50 closed below 16300.

Sectoral selling pressure was seen in realty, telecom, auto and utilities. The S&amp;P BSE Small-cap index fell 5.7 per cent, and the S&amp;P BSE Mid-cap index was down 5.5 per cent on Thursday.

Stocks that were in focus include Indiabulls Housing Finance which closed 9 per cent lower, Apollo Tyres Ltd fell more than 11 per cent, and Amara Raja Batteries closed with losses of over 10 per cent on Thursday.

Here's what Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research and Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today:

Indiabulls Housing Finance: Avoid

Having underperformed in this bull market, this counter seems to be in a downtrend of its own from the highs of 381 registered in June 2021.

On the way down, it has breached all the critical supports and the last hope is placed around 127.

In case it breaches and settles below 127 for a couple of sessions then it may trade in two digits sooner than later. Therefore, at this point in time, it is an avoid.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Apollo Tyres: Avoid buying the dip

This counter seems to have registered a consolidation breakdown after moving in a range of 260 – 198 levels.

Therefore, unless it recoils and sustains above 200 levels the trajectory of this counter shall be on the downside. In such a scenario, a sharp slide towards 150 levels cannot be ruled out.

Traders should avoid buying the dip unless some signs of stability and strength are visible.

Amara Raja Batteries: Avoid fresh buying

This counter has given up around 50% of the gains from its intermediate top of 1025 levels registered in January 2021.

Hence, unless it registers a close above 573 levels it can further extend its weakness towards 480 levels which seems to be a crucial support.

In case if there are any stuck up positions, they should be squared off on pullback attempts. No fresh buying should be considered around these levels.&nbsp;&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

Here's what Mazhar Mohammad&nbsp;recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today.


Buy, Sell or Hold: What should investors do with Indiabulls Housing Finance, Apollo Tyres and Amara Raja Batteries?

Vineet Bagri, Managing Partner- TrustPlutus Wealth believes that small and midcap companies are now substantially more expensive than in the past. This performance may not repeat itself in FY23.

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In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Bagri said that we have positioned our portfolio with larger weights in large-cap companies and reduced weights on companies with expensive valuations. Edited Excerpts –

Q) Geopolitical events as well as expectations of strong tightening by the US Fed, has certainly fuelled a risk-off sentiment. What is your take and how should long-term investors view this?

A) The key to long-term investing is to identify great companies and buy them at reasonable valuations. In most cases, a long-term investor should not worry about their holdings, provided the earlier statement holds.

Within this ambit, we recommend investors be mindful of asset allocation and the relevance of underlying businesses. Asset allocation is a great mechanism that helps in protecting and enhancing investor wealth if employed diligently.

It is also important, especially for the long-term investors, to review their investment thesis from time to time, as trends change.

For example, shaving products is a great business, but what can the company do when their target population decides to embrace a different preference!

Q) What is your take on the December quarter earnings and what is the kind of projections you foresee for FY23?

A) Overall, Nifty50 earnings have grown at 5 per cent QoQ and 36 per cent YoY in the results that have been declared so far. Results for NSE500 are also similar.

This is a great performance under any circumstances, more so under difficult conditions. We have to remember that earnings for Q3FY20 (previous period) were elevated on account of pent-up demand, so this strong YoY growth in Q3/FY22 is remarkable.

Consensus earnings growth estimates are 11 per cent for the next 12 months and 16 per cent for FY24. These projections are well balanced, with risks on both sides.

Larger public and private spending on Capex could boost growth, while on the other hand if inflation persists or increases, earnings could also reduce.&nbsp; At the current levels, risks seem evenly balanced.

Q) Last two months have been volatile how have you positioned your portfolio to tackle volatility amid external headwinds?

A) We have positioned our portfolio with larger weights in large-cap companies and reduced weights on companies with expensive valuations. We have also avoided cyclical businesses in metals and small-cap stocks.

Q) Inflation might certainly become a pain point for the economy as well as RBI – what trajectory you foresee for rate in next 12 months. How should investors position themselves to tackle the change?

A) We broadly categorise inflation into two buckets, viz. borne out of oil prices and otherwise. Unless new supply comes into the market, oil prices will not reduce, in fact they may increase.

That’s why the USA-Iran nuclear deal is important. Non-oil inflation is sticky because of the sharp increase in labour cost, which is driving up everything else. We think that inflation should moderate in the second half of this calendar year as base effect comes into play.

Q) Small &amp; midcaps have clearly outperformed in the past 2 years with handsome margin – how should investors view the space in FY23?

A) Small and midcap companies are now substantially more expensive than the past. This performance may not repeat itself in FY23.

Q) If someone is running a portfolio with deep red – what should be his/her strategy before the financial year-end. Hold positions or exit stocks. If exit then which stocks/fund should the investors' exit from?

A) Good quality companies usually retrace their previous highs and make newer highs. However, the converse is also true for companies that have poor fundamentals, weak promoters, and bad capital allocation.

Therefore, investors should segregate their holdings into these two categories, hold the former and sell the later. Fund managers who have seen cycles usually find their way back.

Q) FIIs clearly remain net sellers but retail investor force is something that is keeping market float at every support. How do you see FII activity in near future? There is a saying that when FIIs exit – it is usually the best time to book profits?

A) Well in the past, FII selling was a clear sign to book profits. But at this juncture, there is so much participation from retail investors that FII selling is unable to move markets.

Additionally, the rupee has not depreciated heavily despite this FII selling.&nbsp; At some point in the future, FIIs will again become buyers, as and when the uncertainties around the US Fed actions become clear. We expect that FIIs could return to Indian equities in the second half of 2022.

Q) The recent selling was largely seen in high PE stocks which low PE stocks did not see much sell-off. Can we say that smart money is now moving out of high beta counters and richly priced stocks?

A) Some of the selling was definitely due to expensive valuations. However, we have also seen stocks with heavy FII holdings underperforming, including some index heavyweights.

Low PE stocks did not also gain as much as the expensive pack in the first place.

Q) Government has notified the first phase of the green hydrogen policy. What does it mean for markets and which companies are likely to get benefited the most? Also, does that mean that companies with high ESG ratings will be considered for investment by foreign funds?

A) It is very early to comment on green hydrogen policy and companies in this segment as this is still being set up.

Already, several large international institutions only invest in companies with high ESG ratings – which also explains their lack of interest in fossil fuel and tobacco companies.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

In an interview with&nbsp;Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Bagri said that we have positioned our portfolio with larger weights in large-cap companies and reduced weights on companies with expensive valuations


Dalal Street Voice: We are avoiding cyclical businesses in metals and small cap stocks in 2022: Vineet Bagri of TrustPlutus Wealth

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Indian stock markets witnessed a knee-jerk reaction on Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine, claiming that the action was intended to protect civilians.

The Nifty50 was hit too as the index was trading below its crucial support at 17,000 and the crucial long-term moving average of 200-DMA and 200-Days EMA placed at 16887, and 16878 respectively.

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Global equity markets continue to trade in the red amid reports of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The risk-off buying pushed MCX Gold above Rs 51000 per 10 gm, and international crude oil prices breached $100 mark for the first time since 2014.

India VIX index - which measures expected volatility in the equity market, surpassed 30 mark in intraday trade on Thursday.

Tracking the weakness, not just in the Nifty50 but about 60 per cent of the companies in the index are trading below the long-term moving average of 200-EMA, data from Trendlyne showed.

Stocks that are trading below the 200-EMA, as well as 200-EMA, include names like RIL, TCS, HDFC Bank, HUL, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, etc. among others, data showed.

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&nbsp;The long-term moving average of 200-DMA is widely tracked by technical experts in deciding the broader trend in the market.

The major moving average also acts as major support and resistance in any trend. A move above or below 200-DMA indicates a change in the trend, suggest experts.

“After several attempts, the market collapsed below the levels of 200 days DMA. Based on our experience, Nifty will spend time around 200 days MA and later it will rebound or fall,” Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd, said.

“As the market is approaching the same after a long period of time, we are expecting the market to correct slightly more below the same and bounce back. We need to see how these events unfold. Minimize fundamentally weak stocks and include growth-oriented stocks in the portfolio,” he said.

What should investors do?

A break below 200-DMA signals caution for market participants and investors should cut leverage bets, suggest experts.

Most companies in the Nifty50 index are bluechip and a break below 200-DMA or 200-EMA does suggest a break in the uptrend but investors should hold as the market action is fuelled by external events.

Long-term investors should use the dip to strengthen their position in a quality stock or invest fresh money at current levels as the risk-to-reward ratio remain favourable.

“We need to be cautious in the case of leveraged positions, however, for investment, this would be an opportunity to invest in strong and quality companies with medium to long term outlooks,” suggests Chouhan.

“Those who are already investing can look to strengthen the portfolio by reducing weak stocks and adding strong ones,” he said.

If the majority of Nifty50 stocks slip below their 200-DMA then it is not a good sign but we should wait for confirmation because sometimes we may see a false breakdown.

“If Nifty manages to hold its 200-DMA then some of the stocks like Divi’s Laboratories, HeroMoto Corp, Bajaj Auto, HDFC, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI Life, Wipro will provide a good buying opportunity,” Parth Nyati, Founder, Tradingo, said.

“Short-term Traders should stay light amid lots of uncertainties where 16800 should be their trading stop loss for long positions,” he said.

Nyati further added that the long term should stay invested and look for buying opportunities in this correction because we are in a structural bull run where the bull market will remain intact even Nifty further corrects 10-20% from here.

Why is 200-DMA important – what does the history tell us

The last time it went under 200-DMA was back in February 2020, the Nifty finally took support near 7500 before bouncing back to hit fresh record highs.

Investors with a long-term time horizon can look at buying the dip as equity markets does not like uncertainty and bounce back when things stabalise.

“The 2020 event was a black swan, which magnified the fall that ensued the break of 200DMA. Geopolitical tensions have a history of having only a brief impact on financial markets and the recovery is often swift,” Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.

“Traders have taken solace in this, which is the reason why Nifty is just over 5% below January peak. However, there is no reason to get ahead of oneselves, as there are many other pressure points that have all taken the back seat as the prospects of an impending war, hogs the limelight,” he said.

Jain further added that come March, they will all resurface. However, the prospects of such a sustained and sharp fall is close to nil.

Whenever there is an uncertain event that is difficult to predict or the outcome of the event is random then in that case the market turns risk-averse.

“The market is facing a series of uncertain events since October 2021 such as the decision on the rollback of stimulus from the US, interest rate movement from the Fed, UP elections, Q3 and Q4 quarter numbers and the newly added geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine,” said Chouhan of Kotak Securities Ltd.

“Until the market is not getting a specific or certain outcome, we think the market to remain volatile and may even trade below the support of the 200 days DMA,” he added.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

The Nifty50 was hit too as the index was trading below its crucial support at 17,000 and the crucial long-term moving average of 200-DMA and 200-Days EMA placed at 16887, and 16878 respectively.


Russia-Ukraine crisis: Nifty below 17000 and 60% of index stocks slip below 200-DMA; what should investors do?

India Gold MCX April futures surpassed Rs 51000 mark on Thursday tracking a positive trend seen in the international spot prices as investors sought refuge in safe havens after Ukraine declared an emergency. 
 
The West imposed more sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine, said a Reuters report. Spot gold trading over $1,900 per ounce after having hit its highest since June 1 at $1,913.89 per ounce on Tuesday. 
 
On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), the April gold contracts were trading 1.4 per cent higher at Rs 51,129 per 10 grams at 0915 hours. The March silver futures were trading 1.3 per cent higher at Rs 65,430 a kilogram. 
&nbsp;

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Gold and silver extended its gain after rising conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. Both precious metals settled on a positive note in the international markets on Wednesday. 
 
Gold April futures contract settled at $1910.40 per troy ounce and silver March futures contract were settled at $24.55 per troy ounce. Both precious metals also settled on a positive note in the domestic markets. 
 
Rising Russia and Ukraine conflict supporting safe-haven buying in the precious metals. Gold and silver also gained after imposing sanctions on Russia by western countries, suggest experts. 
 
Fresh sanctions on Russia could continue to keep global inflation at a higher side and support precious metals. 
 
“Higher global energy prices continue to push global inflation higher and support precious metal prices as a hedge against inflation. We expect both precious metals to continue to show strength in upcoming sessions and gold prices could test $1935 per troy ounce and silver could also test $25 per troy ounce levels,” Manoj Kumar Jain, Director, Head-Commodity &amp; Currency Research, Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, said. 
 
“Gold has support at $1900-1888 per troy ounce and resistance at $1922-1935 per troy ounce while silver has support at $24.30-24.00 per troy ounce and resistance at $24.84-25.10 per troy ounce,” he said.

&nbsp;

&nbsp; 
At MCX, gold has support at 50100-49920 and resistance at 50600-50850 while silver has support at 64220-63800 and resistance at 64950-65500. 
 
Jain suggests buying gold on dips around 50100 with a stop loss of 49900 on a closing basis for the target of 50800 and silver around 64200 with a stop loss of 63600 on a closing basis for the target of 65200. 
 
Technical Recommendations: 
 
Expert: Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities 
 
COMEX gold trades 1% higher near $1930/oz after a 0.4% gain yesterday. Gold has edged up on safe haven buying as Russia-Ukraine tensions intensified with the US warning of an imminent attack and imposing fresh restrictions on Moscow. ETF inflows also show buying interest in the metal. 
 
However, weighing on price is gains in the US dollar and Fed’s monetary tightening expectations. 
 
Gold may remain volatile as market players respond to development relating to Russia however unless there are serious efforts to resolve the issue, safe-haven buying may keep prices supported. 
 
Expert: Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities 
 
Domestic gold prices could start higher this early Thursday morning, tracking overseas prices. 
 
Technically, if MCX Gold April trades above 50250 level it could witness a Bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at 50545-50710. A trade below could pull prices to the support zone at 50085-49785. 
 
International silver spot and futures started marginally higher this Thursday morning in Asian trade, tracking gold prices. 
 
Technically, if COMEX Silver May trades above $24.450 level it could witness a Bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at $24.805-$25.016. A trade below could pull prices to the support zone at $24.240-$23.885. 
 
Domestic silver prices could start stronger this early Thursday morning tracking the overseas prices. 
 
Technically, if MCX Silver May trades above 65170 level it could witness a Bullish momentum up to the resistance zone at 65640-65890. A trade below could pull prices to the support zone at 64920-64450. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

India Gold MCX April futures surpassed Rs 51000 mark on Thursday tracking a positive trend seen in the international spot prices as investors sought refuge in safe havens after Ukraine declared an emergency.
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Gold Price Today: Yellow metal surpasses 51,000 on MCX; silver gains over 1% on safe haven buying

Indian market closed in the red for the sixth consecutive day in a row on Wednesday. The S&amp;P BSE Sensex fell over 60 points while the Nifty50 managed to hold on to 17050 levels. 
 
Sectorally, buying was seen in realty, consumer durables, utilities and power stocks while selling was seen in energy, capital goods, and auto stocks. 
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Stocks that were in focus include GMDC which closed with gains of over 8 per cent, Elgi Equipment also rose over 8 per cent, and Adani Power closed with gains of over 4 per cent on Wednesday. 
 
Here's what Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today: 
 
GMDC: Hold 
 
The counter has a strong bullish setup where it is forming rising channel formation on a daily timeframe. It has retested its previous breakout level after hitting a fresh 52-week high. 
 
On the upside, 152 is a susceptible area. If the stock starts trading above this level, then we can expect a run-up towards 180 in the near term. On the downside, Rs. 120 is major support at any correction. 
 
Adani Power: Buy 
 
The counter has witnessed an astute U-shape rally on the daily chart and formed a base around Rs.100 which is placed at the 200-Days SMA. 
 
The overall structure is very bullish as it trades above its all-important moving averages. The pattern suggests an immediate target&nbsp;of Rs140, while it has the potential to move further upside. On the downside, Rs. 100 will act as an immediate support level.

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Elgi Equipment: Buy 
 
The counter is forming rising channel formation on the daily timeframe with a strong bullish setup. It has retested its previous breakout level after hitting a fresh 52-week high. 
 
On the upside, 450 is an immediate resistance area; above this, we can expect a run-up towards 500+ levels in the near term. On the downside, Rs. 300 is major support at any correction. 
 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)&nbsp;&nbsp;

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Indian market closed in the red for the sixth consecutive day in a row on Wednesday.&nbsp;


Buy, Sell or Hold: What should investors do with GMDC, Adani Power and Elgi Equipment stocks?

Harshad Patil - Executive Vice President &amp; CIO at Tata AIA Life Insurance Company Ltd believes that the market movement will be more stock specific going forward and the fund performance would depend more upon bottom-up stock picking skills.

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Patil has extensive experience of over 20 years in a gamut of areas pertaining to investments such as fund management, research, and dealing functions. His prior assignment was with UTI Mutual Fund for over 7 years in various capacities linked to fund management and dealing.

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Patil said that even in the mid-cap space while many stocks have run up significantly, there exists plenty of opportunity for bottom-up stock picking. Edited Excerpts -

Q) RBI maintained a dovish stance while keeping the interest rates unchanged. What is the rate trajectory you foresee in near future?

A) The Monetary Policy Committe (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left policy repo and reverse repo rates unchanged and continues to remain dovish as Central Bank’s priority is to support the nascent growth impulses in the economy.

The cancellation of the G-sec auction has turned demand-supply dynamics favorable, at least till March 2022 and may keep rates supported till then, post which excess supply on the back of a large FY 23 government borrowing will lead to an increase in yields.

We believe that the bond market will need active support from the RBI from April 2022 onwards for smooth and non-disruptive completion of the FY23 government borrowing.

Moreover, the market would closely watch developments around the inclusion of government bonds in global indices in the second half of FY 2023.

Going forward, the RBI is expected to normalise policy in a calibrated manner as the MPC continues to maintain that the economy needs sustained policy support to nurture the recovery.

Hence, we expect RBI to remain accommodative and the repo rate to remain on hold in the near term. However, the MPC of the RBI may have to nudge the repo rate higher in the first half of FY23 if the trajectory of CPI inflation is materially higher than the MPC’s projections of CPI inflation in the monetary policy review in February.

Q) Indian market picked up momentum post Budget after initial US Fed jitters stabilised. What are your views on markets for 2022? What will be the next trigger for markets?

A) The Indian equity market is expected to remain volatile as uncertainties arising from geopolitical tensions and rising international crude oil prices impact market sentiments.

On the domestic front, the state election outcomes too can add to this market volatility.

We believe the next trigger for the market performance could be the ability of the Indian Corporates to offset some of the input cost pressures and register a steady rise in the earnings trajectory.

Q) What is your take on January Mutual Fund data? The mutual fund industry crosses five-crore-SIPs-mark for the first time. What does the trend suggest and where is smart money moving?

A) We welcome the increased usage of institutional investors for investing in the equity markets as it augurs well for retail investors from returns and safety point of view. &nbsp;

In fact, even we have seen a buoyancy in flows through sustained periodic investments in our ULIP products.

Q) Budget 2022 was focused on boosting growth – do you see sectoral rotation taking place? Which should long term investors focus on?

A) The focus of spending on infrastructure and nation-building as against a direct dole out of cash augurs well through higher economic multipliers on a sustained basis.

This opens up opportunities in the infrastructure and manufacturing sector as well as the banking sector.

Q) Which theme will dominate markets in 2022 – value of growth? We saw a lot of liquidity chasing many mid and small cap stocks in 2020-2021 to tap growth. What are your views?

A) We believe the market's movement will be more stock-specific going forward and the fund performance would depend more upon bottom-up stock-picking skills.

Even in the mid-cap space while many stocks have run up significantly, there exists plenty of opportunity for bottom-up stock picking.

Q) Crude seems to be on the boil. What is your call on commodity market in 2022?

A) There has been an increase in crude oil demand globally as we emerge out of the pandemic with the supply side unable to catch up with this surge in demand.

This coupled with the recent geopolitical tensions has led to a spike in crude oil prices. However, if there is some normalisation in the geo-political scenario, the oil prices could moderate provided the production resumes across OPEC+ as per agreed targets. &nbsp;

Prices of other commodities too may see some cooling off in the near term while remaining at an elevated level in the medium term as we see a focus on environment and green commodities production, keeping costs above long-term trends.

Q) Given the government's focus on pushing CAPEX are there any sectors poised for re-rating?

A) As highlighted above, the banking and financial space could see some re-rating as credit growth increases.

The infrastructure space also can see some growth as they see a rise in the order book and improved cash flows.

Q) Any new age developing themes that investors can look at for the next 2-3 years? And the ones which one can avoid amid high valuations?

A) The new age themes offer growth through disrupting the traditional models of doing business.

While these can sustain over a more extended period, the current valuations do not provide any scope for disappointment in growth and profitability over the next couple of years.

We would recommend investors be mindful of both these factors before taking a call on stocks in these themes.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

In an interview with Zeebiz's Kshitij Anand, Patil said that even in the mid-cap space while many stocks have run up significantly, there exists plenty of opportunity for bottom-up stock picking.


Dalal Street Voice: Plenty of opportunities for bottom-up stock picking for investors in 2022: Harshad Patil of Tata AIA Life Insurance

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd fell over 5 per cent in last one year compared to 15 per cent upside seen in Nifty50 in the same period and technical charts structure suggests further pain in the next 1-2 months, suggest experts.

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The pharma major with a market capitalization of more than Rs 70,000 cr on the BSE hit a 52-week high of Rs 5613 on 7 July 2021, and post that the trend went sideways.

The stock is trading below most of the short- and long-term moving averages which suggest further pain in the near term. The stock breached its 200-DMA placed at 4864 on 18 October and since then it has not been able to recoup losses, Trendlyne data showed.

The pharma stock fell a little over 13 per cent so far in 2022. It took support above 4,100 levels back in January 2022, but this support is unlikely to hold for long.

Momentum oscillators are seen shifting in sell mode which suggests further selling pressure in the near term that could take it below crucial support of 4000.

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Dr Reddy’s Laboratories has been a major underperformer from the Pharma space. Technically, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (DRL) stock price pattern appears ugly at current levels.

Technically speaking, the biggest negative catalyst is prevailing overbought technical conditions and the recent downward trend in the stock price could trigger some more corrective declines and there is limited room on the upside, suggest experts.

“The 200-DMA of the stock is around Rs 4873 levels and 50 DMA is around 4343. Firstly, overbought technical conditions prevail on the daily charts on the backdrop of a probable dark cloud cover pattern on the monthly charts,” Prashanth Tapse, VP Research Mehta Equities Ltd, said.

“The momentum oscillators are seen shifting in sell mode signalling further sharp corrective down move. The stock price has already signaled a break down from a “lower consolidation zone” on the daily —— confirmation of the same below Rs 4167 mark,” he said.

The immediate downside risk below a Rs 4167 close is at Rs 4000 psychological zone and then aggressive targets at Rs 3771 mark.

“Establishing short positions at CMP should be the preferred trading strategy, with immediate targeting Rs 4167 (Support) and then aggressive targets are seen at Rs 3771 zone. Stop above Rs 4711 (Resistance). Holding Period: 1-2 Months,” recommends Tapse.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)

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The pharma major with a market capitalization of more than Rs 70,000 cr on the BSE hit a 52-week high of Rs 5613 on 7 July 2021, and post that the trend went sideways.

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Kshitij Anand