This is how Yeddyurappa can win majority in Karnataka for BJP
Yeddyurappa has to prove his majority and he has said that the BJP does not need 15 days to do so. But doing so will require a lot of things to happen or else, Yeddyurappa is certain to be shown the exit door by the assembly. Surely, this is a prospect that would be a massive blow for PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah who want to go ahead into the general elections 2019 on a high rather than a low.
The fight may well be raging in the Supreme Court between the Congress and BJP over the saffron party being allowed to form government and prove majority in 15 days by the governor and the swearing in of Yeddyurappa as new chief minister of Karnataka, but the truth remains that the coming days are fraught ones for all concerned. Yeddyurappa has to prove his majority and he has said that the BJP does not need 15 days to do so. But doing so will require a lot of things to happen or else, Yeddyurappa is certain to be shown the exit door by the assembly. Surely, this is a prospect that would be a massive blow for PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah who want to go ahead into the general elections 2019 on a high rather than a low. There are 2 ways that the BJP can prove majority in the assembly and both will require virtual miracles to be pulled off. Of course, BJP can look back at history and see that such miracles have happened before in Indian legislatures.
Having said that, Rahul Gandhi led Congress will try its best to ensure this does not happen. The party insists that governor's action has murdered democracy as the Congress and JDS, led by father-son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy, combination have a majority in the assembly even as the BJP is the largest party. Unfortunately, for the BJP, the ghosts of Goa, Manipur and Meghalaya have risen to haunt them. In those states, Congress was the largest party but it was not given an opportunity to form government. The same applies in Bihar, where Lalu Yadav led RJD is the largest party, but Nitish Kumar led JDU and BJP have formed an alliance to forge a government. Both Congress and RJD want these governments dismissed and that their party be allowed to form government. They say that rules have to be the same across India and cannot be separate for Karnataka.
So, how can BJP win majority? The halfway mark, in terms of MLAs is 112. BJP has 104 plus 1 Independent. It needs 7 more MLAs on its side. Congress has 78 MLAS, and JDS has 38, plus an independent for a total of 117.
How Yeddyurappa can win majority in Karnataka for BJP
Scenario 1 that can hand BJP majority in the Karnataka assembly: If 13 rival MLAs do not vote, Assembly strength will come down to 209 and the majority mark that BJP will then require will be just 105. However, all the 13 MLAs will be disqualified.
Scenario 2: Two-thirds of Congress MLAs, which is 52, can legally merge with the BJP. Or else two-third of JDS MLAs, which is 24, can join BJP. None of these MLAs will then be disqualified.
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The situation on the ground is fluid and anything can happen. Sensing the danger well in time, both Congress and JDS are looking to protect their MLAs from getting lured by the BJP and they have been sent in buses from Bengaluru out of the state! There have been accusations flying around and one of these is that some Rs 100 cr is being offered to MLAs to shift their allegiance.