India GDP numbers today: Here's what to expect
Indian economy is likely to post healthy GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers for the quarter ended March 31, 2017 when they are released later today.
Analysts expect that the new IIP and WPI series will push up GDP numbers as the base year now stands at 2011-12 instead of 2004-05. Moody's Investors Services, in a note said that it expects Indian economy to grow at 7.5% in FY17 and 7.7% in FY18.
It said that Indian economy will gradually accelerate to around 8% over the next three to four years.
Reuters poll of economists estimates GDP in the fourth quarter to touch 7.1% annually thereby retaining the fastest growing major economy tag. Indian economy grew at 7% in the quarter ended December 31, 2017.
The median forecast from 35 economists polled by Reuters put annual GDP growth for the January-March quarter at just tad faster than 7.0 percent posted in the previous quarter, but still ahead of the 6.9 percent expansion clocked by China during the same period.
Forecasts ranged from 6.5 to 7.8%.
Key things to watch out:
India's factory ouutput or IIP grew 2.7% in March 2017 as against a drop of 1.2% in February 2017. Manufacturing output in the given month rose 1.2% and electricity production grew 6.2%.
ALSO READ: India's March IIP grows 2.7%
Indian economy is likely to be impacted by falling inflation. In April 2017, inflation stood at 2.99% as against 3.81% in March 2017 and 3.65% in February and 3.17% in January 2017.
Wholesale inflation of WPI has been 4.3% in January 2017 followed by 5.5% and 5.3% in February and March 2017.
The new IIP and WPI series would mean that Indian economy's past performance is also likely to get a boost.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI Research said, "We expect FY14 GDP growth to be revised from 6.5% to 7.3% while FY16 GDP is expected to be revised from 7.9% to 8.3% because of the new IIP and GDP series. FY17 GDP growth is expected to be revised from 7.1% to 7.6%."
He said, "We also expect 7.2% GDP (GVA: 6.8%) growth for Q4 FY17 and also upward revision in all the preceding three quarters."
Government statistics department CSO will release GDP numbers at 5.30 pm on May 31, 2017